Talking Stick Rules

The Extended Honeymoon

2009-06-02T12:44:00.000-07:00

Rasmussen reports that nearly two-thirds of Americans continue to place blame for the nation's economic troubles on Bush, providing Obama much-needed manuevering room to take dramatic steps (nationalizing a bankrupt GM, for instance) to put the economy on a more solid footing.

Cheney, Cheney, Everywhere

2009-06-01T10:31:00.000-07:00

I remember fondly the days our former Vice President Dick spent holed up in his "undisclosed location." Today, I am flicking across the channels on the teevee and lo and behold, there he is again. He's at an event honoring Gerald Ford at the National Press Club and he's pontificating about 9/11, terrorism, North Korea and nuclear proliferation. Now, I'm not going to deny him his right to free speech, but I wonder does the traditional media need to put him on camera each time he opens his mouth?

Making it Personal

2009-05-29T07:08:00.001-07:00

The most personally wrenching moment in the Oscar-nominated film "Hotel Rwanda" occurred for me not during the scenes depicting the horrific barbaric butchering that terrorized the central African nation. It was a scene during which the voice of American President Bill Clinton emanates from the radio. His declaration that the United States did not believe a genocide was occurring in the war-ravaged nation.

It's a powerful scene. By denying the reality of the horror all around them, Clinton's message essentially extinguished the hopes of rescue for the poor souls barracaded in the hotel. The world had determined there was no political will to engage, so it was simply decided to deny reality.

At that moment my anger, outrage and disgust at the inhumanity of the crisis was transformed into a profound shame. No longer was watching this movie a historical experience. Sure, movies about prior genocides, like Schindler's List were eye-opening and soul-wrenching. But there was always the distance of time. Besides, in most of the stories we are taught in our youth, Americans are on the side of justice.

Now, however, here was something I could not depersonalize. The comfort of time and distance evaporated in an instant. A man I had cast a vote for, a man I believed would do the right thing (especially when confronted with evidence of genocide), chose the politically expedient option. I felt dirty, ashamed. At that point, I became responsible.

Now, with US Army General Antonio Taguba (the one who investigated the Abu Ghraib crimes) revealing the contents of the photos President Obama has chosen to keep from the public, a sinking feeling overcomes me. Is another president putting political expediency over doing what's right? To make it worse, the potential crimes were committed by Americans against prisoners. And they were done in the name of keeping me safe.

Gay Marriage Fight Creates Strange Bedfellows

2009-05-27T10:29:00.000-07:00

When former Bush II Solicitor General Ted Olsen unites with his former Bush v. Gore adversary David Boies one realizes how dramatically the politics of marriage equality have shifted.

I'll say this again, although it isn't all that popular. The passage of Proposition 8 was a pivotal event in the fight for LGBT civil rights. A community has been transformed. Yesterday's court decision is another important step forward, despite the defeat. The public debate (although at times ugly and nasty) is creating more support for equality more quickly than any court-ordered mandate ever could have accomplished.

Mitch's Filibuster Flip Flopping

2009-05-26T13:26:00.000-07:00

Mitch's band of Roadblocking Senate Republicans are elevating hypocrisy to new levels. Three years ago, they hyperventilated over the prospect Democrats might filibuster Bush judicial nominees, decrying the move as unconstitutional. Now that the shoe is on the other foot, they're singing a different tune.

Thanks to Media Matters, we've got video footage of these fools.

Will They Listen to the Generals Now?

2009-05-26T11:38:00.001-07:00

Recall the Republican argument used to disarm Democratic opposition to the 2007 Iraq surge? They paraded the military leaders, led by Gen. David Petraeus in front of Congress, the television cameras and challenged Democratic politicians to "listen to the generals."

Now that Petraeus has come out in support of closing Gitmo, will they follow their own advice? Or will Rush, Hannity and Beck pillory their once-beloved general to protect Darth Cheney?

"Torture and Abuse Was Counterproductive to What We Were Trying to Accomplish"

2009-05-26T11:02:00.000-07:00

Dick "Four Deferrals" Cheney doesn't know what he's talking about:

The Sunday Muse, Memorial Day Edition

2009-05-24T05:26:00.001-07:00

Random clippings from this week's news:

Business/The Economy

Wall Street: This is what happens when a political party devoted to small government and lax regulation is in charge:

The Securities and Exchange Commission abandons investigations for lack of resources, allows corporate wrongdoers to skip fines and drops cases because of a bureaucratic culture of risk aversion, according to a recent federal report...
The report raises questions about how well the SEC can do its job protecting investors with such glaring deficiencies.
The number of SEC enforcement attorneys declined 11.5 percent from 2004 to 2008 while cases were closed prematurely or not investigated at all, the report says.
Although a wide range of cases is pursued, "one attorney told us of closing several cases that were promising but which could not be pursued for lack of resources," according to the report.

With such lax oversight, how can investors and American taxpayers regain the confidence in the financial system necessary to revive the global economy?

Detroit: It was once unthinkable, but now seems inevitable.

Capitol Hill: The Roberts Court does corporate America's bidding.

Science/The Environment:

Has anyone checked the temperature in hell lately?

Republican talking heads, full of hot air and blinded to science.

Politics:

GOP 2012: In the race to crazy that is the GOP nomination fight, Sarah proves she's still in the game.

Education:

The Golden State's tarnished future: California's kids to pay the price for political failure. The draconian spending cuts now facing the state's school districts is an unconscionable abandonment of the state's children, it's most important resource.

Foreign Policy/Military Affairs:

South Central Asia: As President Obama goes "all in" in AfPak, I find myself wondering if anyone has clearly defined America's end goals in a region known as the graveyard of empires.

Capitol Hill: Disappointing the anti-war left that propelled them to power over the past two elections, a Democratic Congress passes another "no-strings attached" Iraq/AfPak war supplemental funding bill. But this year, it's a Democratic President who launched his national career as the anti-war candidate who receives the money. Was this the change we had in mind?

The Senate Scaredy-Crats

2009-05-23T15:39:00.000-07:00

Many of us hoped Karl Rove's post 9/11 fearmongering political strategy had become a relic of the past with the Democratic victories of 2006 and 2008. We viewed the ridicule that greeted "A Noun, A Verb, 9/11" Guiliani's stillborn presidential campaign as a sign the electorate had grown wise to being manipulated by images of terrorists on every corner. Surely, the landslide election of a president who rose to prominence through his opposition to a war launched on false claims of imminent mushroom clouds allowed us to dream the voters had seen through the Republicans' scare tactics.

Turns out all of that was nothing more than wishful thinking, if the behavior of Senate Democrats is any indicator. They are still acting as if this were Memorial Day Weekend 2002.

How else could one explain the ever-shrinking Republican minority's ability to successfully return to their "Terror, Terror, Everywhere!" playbook and masterfully play Master Harry and his spineless caucus. Cowering to the specious specter of terrorists running rampant through the streets if America followed through on President Obama's first-day-in-0ffice pledge to close Gitmo, the Senate Scaredy-crats abandoned their Commander-in-Chief and disappointed their political base.

Gitmo - and the enhanced interrogation techniques that unfolded there - will be remembered as one of the more shameful chapters in American history, alongside the Alien and Sedition Acts and the WWII Japanese internment camps. Closing the prison is a critical step in restoring America's moral standing, at home and abroad. Gitmo is not merely a "taint" on America's image, it's continued existence makes us less safe. With each passing month Guantanamo remains open the terrorists ranks expand. Osama bin Laden's most effective recruiting tool must be closed.

But under Harry Reid's intrepid leadership, fifty Democrats (including the two independents) joined with every single Republican (there's the bipartisanship Rush Limbaugh was looking for!) supporting an amendment to the Supplemental Appropriations Bill barring the transfer of Gitmo detainees to prison facilities within the United States.

Sensing he may have boxed himself in and needlessly created a political problem for the president, Harry the Decisive quickly backtracked. As Greg Sargent reports, despite his embrace of Republican talking points and apparently unequivocal statement, “You can’t put them in prison unless you release them. We will never allow terrorists to be released in the United States,” Reid is now searching for wiggle room.

Wishy-washy, which-way-is-the-wind-blowing decision-making is embarassing, Senator Reid.

You have to wonder how the President - who wants to move past the sins of the Bush era as quickly as possible - views the recent missteps by Pelosi and Reid that have only served to put a spotlight on the issues he wants to put in the rearview mirror?

The Purity Purge Continues

2009-05-22T09:22:00.000-07:00

Charlie Crist's decision to jump into the Florida Senate race threatens to open a deeper rift between the party's conservative base and leadership in DC. NRSC Chair John Cornyn's endorsement of Crist (the Obama hugger) over conservative Marco Rubio has enflamed the base. Red State's Erick Erickson is urging party donors to withhold funds (@ Not One Red Cent) from the NRSC.

In the past, most party committees stayed on the sidelines in primary fights. After losing over a dozen seats in the past two elections (and the possibility of losing 3-5 more in 2010), Cornyn finds himself in desperate circumstances, so he chose to back the popular moderate governor who has a substantial lead in early polls. But by rejecting a young conservative Hispanic did he risk further alienating a critical voting bloc?

Dueling Banjos

2009-05-22T07:29:00.000-07:00

The media fascination over the past twenty-four hours over the Dueling Banjos played by President Obama and former Veep Dick Cheney makes it clear how difficult moving forward without looking back is going to be. Beyond the fact the chattering class has legimitized Cheney's tired and worn-out fearmongering (didn't Americans reject this approach during the most recent election?), it's clear that the absence of torture investigations HASN'T made it easier for the nation (or the Administration) to focus on the domestic agenda.

In fact, it may have emboldened the former Vice President to continue his crusade.

Denouncing the president's approach to closing Gitmo and ending torture as American policy as "recklessness cloaked in righteousness," Cheney continues his aggressive and unprecedented attacks. I wonder if his cage-rattling might be making some in the Obama Administration reconsider their desire to turn the page on torture investigations.

Never Having to Say Your Sorry

2009-05-19T07:54:00.001-07:00

Embattled RNC Chair Michael Steele will rally the irrelephants today by declaring,

"The era of apologizing for Republican mistakes of the past is now officially over. It is done," Steele said in remarks prepared for delivery Tuesday to state party chairmen. "We have turned the page, we have turned the corner. No more looking in the rearview mirror. From this point forward, we will focus all of our energies on winning the future."
I have no problem with a party leader talking about the future (that is his job, afterall) but I am perplexed. Did I miss something? When has anyone in the Republican Party actually admitted responsibility for the disasters of the Bush Administration?

George Bush's Holy Crusade

2009-05-18T07:32:00.000-07:00

GQ reveals the religious cloak Rumsfeld's Pentagon used to push the invasion of Iraq at Bush's White House.

Is it any wonder the Islamic world eyes American military policy as a 21st Century Crusade when Intelligence updates to the President use biblical verses like, "Have I not commanded you? Be strong and courageous. Do not be terrified; do not be discouraged, for the LORD your God will be with you wherever you go." ~ Joshua 1:9

I shudder when I see how Rumsfeld reinforced Dubya's belief he was Chosen as an instrument of God by quoting Peter, "It is God's will that by doing good you should silence the ignorant talk of foolish men."

How can we not tremble at America's role in this clash of civilizations when "Onward Christian soldiers!" is the White House's marching orders for the military?

Sunday Muse, May 17

2009-05-17T05:25:00.001-07:00

This Week in Politics:

While planet Earth burns, the Republicans continue playing their fiddles.

The Republican noise machine remains potent. Remember that DHS report on Right Wing extremism? In the immortal words of Gilda's Emily Litella, "Never mind."

No one escapes his wrath. Rush Limbaugh lashes out at McCain's elderly mother.

Does Obama's decision to revive military trials for Gitmo detainees threaten his left flank?

Predictable, yet diabolical. Hannity is falsely comparing Obama's plans to appoint his own US Attorneys to the Rove/Bush regime's politically motivated 2006 firings of nine US Attorneys.
Insiders blogging on DC's coming summer blockbuster.

Lifestyles:

Older Americans feeling the pinch from this recession less than younger generations.

From the "What Else Did You Expect?" File:

More trigger-happy mercenaries working for The Company Formerly Known as Blackwater find themselves in hot water in Afghanistan.

Ignoring that Face In the Mirror

2009-05-16T10:55:00.000-07:00

As the nation's media has become increasingly distracted by the "She Said, He Said" Pelosi/CIA foodfight, I have one question: When did what she knew become more important than what was done? Lost in this diversionary storyline is the fundamental fact: America has endorsed torture. When a democracy allows its government to embrace the tools of tyrants and despots and holds no one accountable, we risk becoming that which we claim to detest.

The way I see it, our nation faces a fundamental question about who we are as a society. How do we reconcile the use of torture in our names?

Do we choose, as our president seems inclined to do, to move forward by turning the page without another glance? Politically, it's the easiest option. From the White House perspective, stirring up partisan rancor is to be avoided at all costs as the administration works to solve the recession, reform healthcare and address climate change. Focusing on the past will only undermine the agenda of change, or so the argument goes.

I see it quite differently. It is less a question of looking backwards than a matter of looking honestly in a mirror. Any path to health (whether as an individual, a family, or a society) requires this step of self-awareness. Its the fundamental first step of any recovery. If you view what happened as torture (as the Red Cross does), it's unconscionable to simply shrug our shoulders and say, "what's done is done."

If we choose expedience we willingly forfeit our moral standing internationally. It is outrageous that as Americans we are actually debating torture as a viable policy. A democratic society cannot survive if we embrace the tactics of tyrants and despots. By sweeping our sins under the rug, how can we ever hope to relight the beacon of hope that America once represented to the world's masses?

I'll use vocabulary the Right understands.

Torture is evil.

Evil is never justified.

Torture violates domestic and international law. What's so difficult to understand?

Failing to acknowledge these crimes committed in our names could rank as one of the biggest mistakes any administration has ever made. I make this statement fully understanding America's original sin of slavery, our deliberate genocide of the indigenous population of this continent and the long tradition of civil liberty infringements throughout American history during times of war and conflict.

We must understand this: the immediacy and scope of global communications changes the stakes. Failing to address this sin quickly will forever stain us in the eyes of a much more attentive world. The eyes of the world are on Obama. I expect his global admirers are going to be much more disappointed in this inaction than the "angry liberal bloggers."

As for Democrats who fret about the risk of taking our eyes off the ball and derailing the domestic agenda, I simply do not believe this administration is incapable of addressing the economy, healthcare reform and education while torture investigations are underway. This president's team is a hive of multitasking overachievers. Besides, the White House would not be the locus nor the focus of the investigation.

Might it threaten to alienate Republicans we need to enact meaningful reform? Perhaps, but a far different outcome may emerge as investigations proceed. We only need one or two Senators to move the agenda forward. And, I firmly believe there are a handful of Republicans here in DC who do have a conscience and are likely to become extremely squeamish in defending torture once those currently hidden pictures became public.

And why? Because it's becoming increasingly clear that torture wasn't used to keep Americans safe, as Cheney keeps claiming. It was used as part of a desperate search to validate the invasion of Iraq.

That sounds like tyranny.

Take Me To Your Leader

2009-05-16T09:25:00.001-07:00

Rasmussen is polling Republican voters about who they view as the leader of the rapidly shrinking GOP. Compared to Rasmussen's March 2009 numbers, the search for a new leader reveals a roster of golden oldies emerging to fill the power vacuum. Who has stepped forward to become the leading Goposaur?

	Mar-09	May-09
John McCain	5%	18%
Michael Steele	5%	14%
Sarah Palin	1%	10%
Mitt Romney	N/A	8%
Rush Limbaugh	2%	6%
Dick Cheney	N/A	4%
No Clear Leader	68%	37%
Not Sure	17%

Earlier this month, Rasmussen reported deep dissatisfaction among the Republican faithful regarding their congressional leadership, with 69% saying they have lost touch with their base nationally.

Big Oil Extracts First Blood

2009-05-14T06:07:00.001-07:00

David Hayes, Obama's pick to be number two at Interior, became the Party of No's first victim, as his nomination was defeated simply to send a message to the Obama administration on behalf of the oil and gas interests who underwrite the campaigns of some powerful Western Republicans. Proving once again they are unwilling to acknowledge their 2008 defeat, the empty rhetoric of last year's GOP campaign chant, "Drill, Baby, Drill!" echoes across the barren wasteland that is the Republican Party.

Can We Afford to Look Away?

2009-05-14T06:01:00.000-07:00

Over at DailyKos is one of the better posts, This is Us, I've read about Obama's decision to prevent the torture photos public release. I understand the fear of igniting the tinderbox that is Pakistan at this critical point, but preventing a long, hard look at what has been done in our names (and by default allowing Dick Cheney to frame a debate on the ethics and efficacy of torture) is a tragic mistake.

If karma does indeed exist, then America's got serious worries.

Scars That Won't Heal?

2009-05-11T14:05:00.000-07:00

Despite President Obama's Team of Rivals embrace of his vanquished primary foe, former surrogates are trying to stir up the old intraparty rivalry in this year's most critical Democratic primary - the Virginia gubernatorial race. The Clinton's uber-fundraiser and former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe is using his high-profile relationships to raise oodles of money. His path to vicotry depends on using that money to increase voter turnout beyond the traditional primary electorate. The off-off-off year elections in Virginia typically attract only the most committed partisans. Brian Moran, on the other hand, is hoping to claim Obama's message of change and motivate the liberal activists to carry him to victory.

Despite the apparent unwillingness of Obama to engage in this skirmish, it's fascinating to see whether activists and the grassroots still cling to old loyalties. Will a McAuliffe victory be viewed by Hillary allies as a restoration of the old Democratic order? Will some see a Moran triumph as a final Clinton smackdown? What would a Creigh Deeds victory mean?

A Failure to Communicate

2009-05-11T13:08:00.000-07:00

Perhaps this explains why Democratic leaders have put Cap & Trade legislation on the back burner. From Rasmussen:

Given a choice of three options, just 24% of voters can correctly identify the cap-and-trade proposal as something that deals with environmental issues. A slightly higher number (29%) believe the proposal has something to do with regulating Wall Street while 17% think the term applies to health care reform. A plurality (30%) have no idea.

According to this poll, Democrats are less likely to accurately describe Cap & Trade as proposal to address climate change than their Republican or independent cohorts. What does this say about Democratic leadership's messaging efforts if they're own supporters are clueless on one of their top priorities?

Gregg's Judgment Day

2009-05-11T07:56:00.000-07:00

If Judd Gregg – a man we know to not be a man of his word – listens to his colleagues entrities and decides to “unretire” next year and run for his New Hampshire Senate it could cause heartburn for the Republican Senate leadership. Democrats, who are currently eyeing Gregg’s open seat as a likely pick-up opportunity will still view the Granite State seat as competitive even with Gregg defending in the race.

But if Gregg does manage to retain the seat CQ Politics tells us it could scramble committee assignments among the GOPosaurs in the US Senate. The handshake deals between senior Republicans Chuck Grassley and Jeff Sessions could be in jeopardy if Gregg sticks around and asserts his seniority. While I'd rather see Gregg shuffle off to an early retirement in favor of a New Hampshire Democrat, it might be entertaining to watch the GOP feathers fly.

Obama in a Word

2009-05-07T08:58:00.001-07:00

Pew Research has another cool interactive graphic showing the public's changing impression about President Obama. Top six words used to describe the Commander in Chief:

Intelligent
Good
Socialist
Liberal
Great
Confident

Coming in at #7 was "Inexperienced." Thirteen respondents described the president as such in April 2009, a dramatic fall-off from the 55 respondents who used the term last September.

The GOP's Tar Heel Troubles

2009-04-18T18:23:00.001-07:00

Richard Burr, already suffering anemic approval numbers as he approaches his 2010 reelection campaign appears to be positioning himself to challenge Arlen Specter and Jim Bunning as this cycle's most vulnerable Republican incumbents.

Following on their success in knocking off Liddy Dole, the DSCC has this put together this ad attacking Burr:

Nobody Likes a Sore Loser

2009-04-16T08:38:00.000-07:00

It looks like two closely contested elections are going to be decided soon in favor of the Democrats. In Minnesota and Upstate New York, Republicans hopes of grasping an electoral victory on which to pin their "we're on the rebound" talking point are rapidly evaporating. But the news is worse than the simple loss of a Senate and House seat. Republican strategists "win at all costs" approach have been dangerously short-sighted, threatening to undermine their future viability in critical swing regions.

Former Senator Norm Coleman's stubborn insistence to continue fighting for a seat even conservatives now believe has been lost is alienating voters. Will his inability to "do the right thing" have repercussions for current and future Republican candidates in the North Star State? Beyond the local ramifications, his intransigence has put the squeeze on Gov. Tim Pawlenty's presidential aspirations. One of the more moderate voices in the modern Republican Party, Pawlenty is forced by Coleman's refusal to throw in the towel into a difficult political dilemma as to whether or not to sign the looming election certificate. Refusing to sign (and ignoring state law) would delight the conservative base but undermine his moderate credentials.

In New York state, the bizarre and desperate attempts to challenge multiple absentee ballots shines the spotlight on the ugly reality of bare-knuckled political fighting. While both parties always look bad in tight tussles, the tactical blunder of challenging the legitimacy of Sen. Gillibrand's ballot scars the Republicans most deeply. If a Republican resurgence is possible in the northeast, it is in the traditionally conservative regions of Upstate New York. At this point, it looks like that renaissance is a remote possibility.

The Irrelephants by the Numbers

2009-04-16T07:12:00.001-07:00

Pew Research provides more statistics revealing just how far Karl Rove's Permanent Republican Majority has sunk.
Among registered voters, 28% call themselves Republicans, a decline of five points since 2004 and only a point above a record low level of Republican self-identification in 16 years of polling by the Pew Research Center, found in March 2008.

It gets worse for the party of no solutions:

Among voters who now identify as Republican or Republican-leaning, roughly two-thirds (68%) identify themselves as conservative, and of the conservatives, three-quarters think the party should turn further to the right. While a majority of moderates and liberals within the party advocate a centrist approach (66%), they make up fewer than a third (31%) of Republican voters overall. As a result, 60% of all Republican voters support a more conservative direction for the party.

As the country shifts toward the left, the opposition party hurtles to the right. Will a moderate voice emerge within the Republican Party?

Dana's New Gig

2009-04-15T17:29:00.000-07:00

Could this be a sign the economy may have bottomed out? Former SpinMaster Dana Perino lands a job as a "chief issues counselor" with Hillary's Microtrends mastermind, Mark Penn's firm Burson-Masteller.

Not sure what a "chief issues counselor" does, but apparently Perino's experience on the frontline defending the Bush administration's endless string of second term fiascos and tragedies prepared her for the new gig:

"She's been through some incredibly difficult experiences at some of the
highest levels, and comes out of that an extremely skilled practitioner," Mr.
Penn said in an interview.

So, we've come to this. Perfecting the Press Secretary Sidestep - stonewalling the press, protecting elected officials from scrutiny and defending inept policy implementation - all while looking kinda "hot" in a Sarah Palin-like manner makes Perino an "extremely skilled practitioner" worthy of joining a Democratic pollster's global PR firm. One might be tempted to view this as a sign of the new era of bipartisanship, but uber-Bush insider Karen Hughes has been a "Burson Person" since last summer.

As to whether this signals an end to the Bush recession, perhaps we should look to another Bush alum; last I heard Gonzo was still looking for work.

Chairman Mike, You Can Keep Your Tea Dry

2009-04-09T11:09:00.001-07:00

Looks like Michael Steele just can't find any love in the grassroots.

Accountability Anyone?

2009-04-08T21:12:00.000-07:00

Amid the deluge of pink slips flooding Main Street, the rising tide of foreclosures drowning the heartland and the rapidly evaporating 401Ks threatening to destroy America's middle class, the Titans of Wall Street have thus far escaped retribution.

The Titans - responsible for much of this economic mess - have yet to even acknowledge their complicity in the financial meltdown, although it appears the Goldman Sachs' Chairman Lloyd Blankfein recently

took the first trip through the public confessional, acknowledging that "the past year has been deeply humbling" for an industry that held itself out as expert but disappointed customers and shareholders by taking actions that "look self-serving and greedy in hindsight."

In hindsight? Aren't they still extorting millions from the public treasury while demanding minimal oversight? When will these Masters of the Universe be held accountable?

When Does the Right Cross the Line?

2009-04-06T09:55:00.000-07:00

A month ago, I wrote a post "Wingnut Get Your Gun" about a frightening email I had received under the Human Events banner. I feared the right wing was fomenting panic among its base in the wake of the Democratic ascendancy in Washington. This past week, The New York Times took notice of this rising apocalyptic rhetoric. With mass shootings peppering our national newscasts on a seemingly daily basis, one wonders if our nation has become unhinged. Is anyone - beyond the shooter - responsible for these irrational acts?

The violence seems to go beyond the all-too-common tragedies of relationship breakdowns and economic dislocation. On Friday, when I heard the Binghamton shootings occured in a facility devoted to assimilating immigrants, I feared our worst xenophobic impulses had turned deadly. In North Carolina a gunman terrorizes a nursing home. In Oakland and Pittsburgh, police officers are gunned down with impunity.

It is the assassinations of the Pittsburgh officers that is most troubling, especially for those of us watching the dangerous rise of right wing panic about guns. Under the guise of defending the Second Amendment, the ultra-conservative base has taken to arming itself at an unprecedented pace.

The extreme right has spawned many native-grown terrorists. Is the next Eric Rudolph or Timothy McVeigh listening to the ravings of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Michelle Bachman, plotting the next outrage? Will the hate-mongers on the right accept their role in cultivating these terrorists?

No Panic Button in Obama's White House

2009-04-06T09:21:00.001-07:00

Watching our president stride across the world stage as an equal among equals is extraordinary. This is the change we all knew could be possible.

The G-20 summit revealed the possibilities of diplomacy and proved our new president is up to the task of leading a multi-polar world into the 21st Century. His softly spoken words proved far more powerful than Dubya's wildly damaging big stick. He accomplished more than most had anticipated - and received kudos from world leaders.

When France's Sarkozy declared "I trust him," it exposed President Bush's fatal flaw - his loss of integrity. The trustworthy Obama erased the Bush/Cheney regime's "you're either with us or against us" mentality our thoughtful and pragmatic leader has moved our nation back into it's necessary role of world leadership. The Right will scream about the abandonment of American "exceptionalism" but this chant rings hollow in an era roiled by economic hardship created in large part by America's elites.

Obama's first international crisis - North Korea's missile launch over the weekend - revealed a refreshing and welcome response from President Obama. Rather than pushing the PANIC button and employing the tired rhetoric of the 9/11 president, he seized the opportunity to talk about nuclear disarmament.

I, for one, am delighted this man is the one answering that 3 AM phone call.

Sunday Muse, Palm Sunday Edition

2009-04-05T19:32:00.000-07:00

Political Scene:

Congressional approval inches up...but the belief that congresscritters are corrupt is much more prevalent. A majority predict more partisanship in DC this year.

GOP insanity alert: GOP Governors continue jockeying for 2012 presidential poll position.

GOP sanity search: Mitt Romney warns Republican donors, “I also think its important for us to nod to the president when he’s right. He will not always be wrong.”

Foreign Affairs:

"Hello, Mr. Fox, welcome to the henhouse:"

Former Bush national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley is heading to the U.S. Institute of Peace -- the congressionally created and funded outfit that focuses on international conflict management, as a senior adviser for global affairs. He'll co-chair -- with former Clinton national security adviser Samuel R. Berger -- a working group on the Middle East.

The drug cartel violence raging south of the border could prove President Obama's most difficult political challenge:

The potential for this Mexican crisis to trigger the worst kind of demagoguery in U.S. politics is great, which is why the administration needs to keep intelligently addressing the problem now, before political campaigns reach a fever pitch next year...
Given the severity of the economic recession and the fear, anxiety, and frustration that Americans are already feeling from our many domestic challenges, the danger is very real that the Mexican crisis will give rise to U.S. demagoguery and racism that blind us to the real question: Would we rather send greenbacks today or Green Berets tomorrow?

The Weekly Planet:

Are flame-retardant chemicals on our coasts endangering young children?

The path to clean energy, Google-style.

The Economic Update:

Is GM's Wagoner only the first corporate CEO to be getting a pink slip from the American taxpayer?

Sunday Muse, 3/29/09

2009-03-29T14:46:00.000-07:00

Obama's full plate:

Could the axiom "all politics is local" derail the president's green jobs agenda?

Obama skips the Gridiron dinner but appears on 60 Minutes...is he risking offending the Beltway elite?

The recession ripples outward:

Will Congressional micromanaging of financial change the American professional sports stage?

Some local officials worry the foreclosure crisis could result in severe undercounting in next year's census. California could actually lose a seat for the first time since it entered the Union.

Fundraising totals are plummeting for all the campaign committees; will the recession mean more self-financed Congressional candidates in 2010?

Is anyone paying attention?

It looks like all those fears about Diebold being able to highjack our democracy weren't misplaced.

An Amnesty International report describes America's immigration system a virtual black hole of human rights abuse.

Our military men and women are paying a high price for the Bush/Cheney wars.

DCCC Dancing Circles Around Tedisco

2009-03-28T09:40:00.000-07:00

Underdog Democratic candidate Scott Murphy has surged ahead in the NY-20 special election to replace now-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, threatening GOP hopes of reversing the Democrats' electoral momentum. Solidifying their hold on a once rock-ribbed Republican district will deny the GOP the "we're on the rebound" talking point so desperately needed to revive party morale and motivate donors. It could also be the death knell for Michael Steele as RNC Chair.

The DCCC has been successful in attaching the "Just Another Albany Politician" label to the the Republican candidate Jim Tedisco:

Regardless as to the outcome of the election, political chatterers inside the Beltway will chatter about the "national implications" of this race. A Democratic victory will be proclaimed a validation of President Obama's first two months in office and a repudiation of the Party of No on their home turf. A Republican win of any size will be trumpeted by the noise machine as the exact opposite - and will fuel the media's desire for a compelling narrative about a nation unsure of it's new leadership and direction.

After viewing the DCCC ads, I would caution Democrats in particular about reading too much into a Murphy victory. The winning message (if Murphy does indeed win on Tuesday) seems to be one of a "throw the bums out!" anti-incumbent populist anger.

If this is the case, there may be reason to worry for officeholders of both parties come 2010.

No Laughing Matter

2009-03-28T08:49:00.000-07:00

When the President spends forty minutes discussing the critical issues facing the nation during an interview with 60 Minutes' Steve Kroft, how does the media spend the next news cycle focusing on his "laughter"?

Media Matters has the answer:

The Neocons' New Lair

2009-03-27T11:28:00.000-07:00

Thought the neocons were defeated once and for all in the Republicans' 2008 electoral defeat?

After highjacking America's foreign policy, launching preemptive and unecessary wars helping to bankrupt the global economy, you would be forgiven for thinking the Bill Kristols and Robert Kagan's would slink off into the dustbin of history. But you would be wrong.

They have found a new home. And it's called the Foreign Policy Initiative.

The organisation’s mission statement argues that the "United States remains the world’s indispensable nation," and warns that "strategic overreach is not the problem and retrenchment is not the solution" to Washington's current financial and strategic woes. It calls for "continued engagement - diplomatic, economic, and military - in the world and rejection of policies that would lead us down the path to isolationism."

The mission statement opens by listing a familiar litany of threats to the U.S., including "rogue states," "failed states," "autocracies" and "terrorism", but gives pride of place to the "challenges" posed by "rising and resurgent powers," of which only China and Russia are named.

Their prominence may reflect the influence of Kagan, who has argued in recent years that the 21st century will be dominated by a struggle between the forces of democracy (led by the U.S.) and autocracy (led by China and Russia).

A foreign policy dominated by fear and motivated by conflict? Perhaps this is out of step in the first months of an Obama Administration, but these characters know the current climate is unlikely to last for long. They may have retreated, but they've hardly surrendered.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Losing the Argument on Taxes

2009-03-27T11:18:00.001-07:00

Despite widespread agreement among economists that tax cuts are the least stimulative option in the government's arsenal to stimulate an economy in recession, Rasmussen tells us "More Voters Than Ever Say Tax Cuts Help the Economy." Sixty-three percent believe cuts are helpful to the economy while 51% believe tax increases would be detrimental to the economy.

I realize these numbers are from Rasmussen, so I'm skeptical of putting too much weight in their importance, but progressives still have a huge task in front of us to educate Americans about tax policy if the Obama Administration is going to have the leeway to advance it's ambitious reform agenda.

With Friends Like These...

2009-03-25T05:01:00.000-07:00

Who needs enemies?
Congressional Republicans are telling Dick Cheney to go back to his undisclosed location and leave them alone to rebuild the Republican Party without his input.
Displeased with the former vice-president's recent media appearances, Republican lawmakers say he's hurting GOP efforts to reinvent itself after back-to-back electoral drubbings.

Here's to hoping Dubya's Rasputin doesn't find the directions back to his infamous "undisclosed location" any time soon. The power vacuum at the top of the Republican Party is one of the new president's greatest advantages.

Is That the Best the Press Can Do?

2009-03-24T21:19:00.001-07:00

I tuned in to watch President Obama's second prime time press conference curious to see how he plans to push his budget proposal through a reluctant Congress, respond to the ongoing AIG bonus scandal and the upcoming G20 Summit. Instead, I was numbed by the performance of the representatives of the Fourth Estate. Honestly, the man gets better questions at town hall meetings populated by average Americans.

If this is the best group of reporters we can assemble for a White House press conference, it's obvious why Americans are as ill-informed as we are. How do I get my press pass? I'm confident I can ask a more productive question than the one Anne Compton asked.

Did anyone else get the feeling the President was getting a little annoyed with the inane questions? Shouldn't he expect college-level inquiries? Instead, he's got junior high heathers pushing GOP talking points about embryonic stem cells and charitable tax deductions for the wealthy.

I admit putting the press in their place - "I like to know what I'm talking about before I speak" -makes me feel good, but wow, he bruised some fragile egos in the room. Public smack downs of people who have cameras, mics and twenty four hours of television airtime to fill may not be a smart strategy.

One thing I wish the President would say is, "Yeah, the Republicans seem to have a short term memory problem. But, you know what? So does the press." I understand why he can't, but just wish he could. Their role in helping Republicans push the Bush presidency into our collective memory hole is yet another example of journalistic malpractice right up there with their cheerleading our way into the invasion of Iraq.

The New Teflon President?

2009-03-24T14:29:00.000-07:00

Americans are outraged at greedy financiers. Congresscritters are indignant. They're passing ill-advised, hastily prepared legislation. Sensing chum in the water, the pundits are circling around the Obama presidency like ravenous sharks.

And yet, the public is NOT taking it's anger out on Obama.

Holding a City Hostage

2009-03-24T12:57:00.000-07:00

Apparently, overturning the District's handgun control laws last summer wasn't enough to appease House Republicans' NRA masters. The Republicans are extracting a heavy price from DC residents, dividing citizens and politicians.

As they inch closer to achieving their decades-long campaign for a vote in the House, the Party of No (along with some Dems who are entangled by the NRA's bipartisan tentacles) is demanding the city further water down its gun laws in exchange for supporting its passage:

The gun amendment would repeal many of the District's gun control laws -- including the registration of firearms -- and sharply limit its ability to impose new ones.

Having spent most of my adult life as a District resident, I am willing to swallow the poison pill compromise in order to get representation in Congress. Whether or not the bill will pass Constitutional muster is another question, but it will serve to illustrate the inequality that is life in the nation's capital.

Sunday Muse, Spring Has Sprung!

2009-03-22T05:10:00.000-07:00

Browsing through this week’s news clippings, a few thoughts on a Sunday morning:

Anyone else out there going to be planting their inaugural vegetable garden this year? Gotta love Michelle.

Ditto Barney Frank, the first congress critter for whom I ever voted. Turns out he possesses supernatural powers over hapless Republicans.

More from the circular firing squad once known as the Republican Party:

· When the Governator - the leader who makes Californians wish for the good old days of Gray Davis and rolling brownouts (the definition of Epic Fail in the Golden State - is one of the few Republicans making sense on the stimulus, you know the GOP is DOA.
· Sometimes this Bush Legacy effort is sad. Other times, its tragic. This is simply laughable.
· When will Michael Steele realize he should simply shut his mouth? Here's to hoping he never does. Long live Chairman Mike!
· As Republicans decry Obama's "lurch to the left," has Rahm emerged as the new Rove?

From the "Well, duh!" File:
· Former Bush official admits abstinence only doesn't work.

In the “The FUBAR File” or, Just a Few More Things on Barack's Plate:
· Is the Afghan war about to become a regional conflagration?
· While it may not go the way of the Italian lira and Greek drachma, the days of the Almighty Dollar are coming to an end.

Just wondering, have we reached a tipping point in our nation's war on drugs?

More on our planet in crisis:

· The power of multinational lobbyists is coopting the democratic will of the people resulting in governmental inaction when all science points to the urgency of the moment. NASA climatologist James Hansen argues for civil disobedience as perhaps the only hope in preventing climaticide.
· Are we a generation away from global water wars?
· Could Manhattan be underwater by the end of the century?
Ending on a positive note, giving credit when credit is due:

Despite Congress' ham-handed efforts to rein in rogue financiers (and the stampeding to pass legislation to tax bonuses that should've never been paid out), sometimes they do things right. Promoting national service is one of them.

March Madness for Political Junkies

2009-03-19T09:38:00.000-07:00

Besides revealing how cool he is, President Obama’s public release of his NCAA “Baracket” selections on ESPN yesterday got me to thinking. How many of the teams reside in Democratic House districts? How many are located in districts that voted for Obama? The sportscasters can debate the primacy of the Big East (did they really deserve three Number One seeds) over the ACC and the down years for the SEC, Pac 10 and Big Ten. That ground has been covered.

If we look at the bracket through the lens of the Red/Blue divide that permeates our political discussions (I know, I know, this isn’t the post partisan change Obama promised, but just let me have my fun here, OK?) how does the tournament stack up? And, did the president calculate the political ramifications in making his selections?

First, a few observations about the President’s Baracket. Despite the punditocracy’s growing chorus about the president’s aggressive agenda, the president’s bracket is extremely conservative. Pragmatically embracing the status quo, the Commander-in-Chief has four top seeds (UNC, Pitt & Louisville) and one # 2 (Memphis) reaching the Final Four in Detroit. In fact, he’s only got the lower seed winning NINE games (out of 63!) in the entire tournament. In the first round, he’s got two # 11s (Temple and VCU) and a #10 (Maryland) knocking off higher seeds along two #9s (Butler & Tennessee) emerging with victories over #8s. He's got an entire Region (the Midwest) playing to form with every game won by the top seed. There is no Cinderella in his bracket.

Forty-four of the sixty-five teams are represented by Democrats in the House. Regionally, the partisan breakdown looks like this:

	Midwest						WEST
	School	CD	Party	'08		School	CD	Party	'08
1	Louisville	KY-03	D	Obama	1	Connecticut	CT-02	D	Obama
16	Alabama St	AL-02	D	McCain	16	Chattanooga	TN-03	R	McCain
	Morehead St	KY-05	R	McCain
8	Ohio St	OH-15	D	Obama	8	BYU	UT-03	R	McCain
9	Siena	NY-21	D	Obama	9	Texas A&M	TX-17	D	McCain
5	Utah	UT-02	D	McCain	5	Purdue	IN-04	R	McCain
12	Arizona	AZ-07	D	Obama	12	N. Iowa	IA-01	D	Obama
4	Wake Forest	NC-12	D	Obama	4	Washington	WA-07	D	Obama
13	Cleveland St	OH-11	D	Obama	13	Mississippi St	MS-03	R	McCain
6	West Virginia	WV-01	D	McCain	6	Marquette	WI-04	D	Obama
11	Dayton	OH-03	R	McCain	11	Utah St	UT-01	R	McCain
3	Kansas	KS-03	D	Obama	3	Missouri	MO-09	R	McCain
14	N. Dakota St	ND-AL	D	McCain	14	Cornell	NY-22	D	Obama
7	Boston College	MA-04	D	Obama	7	California	CA-09	D	Obama
10	USC	CA-33	D	Obama	10	Maryland	MD-05	D	Obama
2	Michigan St	MI-08	R	Obama	2	Memphis	TN-09	D	Obama
15	Robert Morris	PA-18	R	McCain	15	Cal St- Northridge	CA-27	D	Obama
	EAST						SOUTH
Seed	School	CD	Party	'08	Seed	School	CD	Party	'08
1	Pittsburgh	PA-14	D	Obama	1	North Carolina	NC-04	D	Obama
16	E. Tennessee St	TN-01	R	McCain	16	Radford	VA-09	D	McCain
8	Oklahoma St	OK-03	R	McCain	8	LSU	LA-06	R	McCain
9	Tennessee	TN-02	R	McCain	9	Butler	IN-07	D	Obama
5	Florida St	FL-02	D	McCain	5	Illinois	IL-15	R	McCain
12	Wisconsin	WI-02	D	Obama	12	W. Kentucky	KY-02	R	McCain
4	Xavier	OH-01	D	Obama	4	Gonzaga	WA-05	R	McCain
13	Portland St	OR-03	D	Obama	13	Akron	OH-13	D	Obama
6	UCLA	CA-30	D	Obama	6	Arizona St	AZ-05	D	McCain
11	VCU	VA-03	D	Obama	11	Temple	PA-02	D	Obama
3	Villanova	PA-07	D	Obama	3	Syracuse	NY-25	D	Obama
14	American	DC-AL	D	Obama	14	Stephen F. Austin	TX-01	R	McCain
7	Texas	TX-21	R	McCain	7	Clemson	SC-03	R	McCain
10	Minnesota	MN-05	D	Obama	10	Michigan	MI-15	D	Obama
2	Duke	NC-04	D	Obama	2	Oklahoma	OK-04	R	McCain
15	Binghamton	NY-22	D	Obama	15	Morgan St	MD-07	D	Obama

	Midwest	West	East	South
House	4 R	6 R	4 R	7 R
	13 D	10D	12 D	9 D
08 Result	7 McCain	7 McCain	5 McCain	9 McCain
	10 Obama	9 Obama	11 Obama	7 Obama

Tournament Total
House Delegation: 21 R 44 D
2008 Results: 28 McCain 37 Obama

The East (Boston) and Midwest (Indianapolis) are the bluest regions with the South (Memphis) the reddest. The Midwest Region has the most “purple” districts, purple being defined as a district that gave its vote to a house candidate that was from the opposite party of the district’s winning presidential candidate. Of the nine swing districts only one (Michigan State’s 8th) was won by Obama yet held by a Republican.

Obama’s 44 schools represents 67% of the field, far outpacing the 53% of the popular vote he won in November and exceeding the 59% of House districts the Democrats currently control. This might reflect the presence if many urban schools in this year’s tournament. Or, it could it be validation that America’s colleges and universities are brainwashing our nation’s youth with liberal ideology? I prefer to think it merely represents Beck’s Epic Failure to surround us.

Its clear Obama isn’t picking based on a state’s battleground status, as he’s most often taking the ‘safer’ choice by selecting the higher seed. Wonder if he’ll venture to make his bracket public during the 2012 tournament when he’s gearing up for reelection? As Obama’s picks move into later rounds, his Blue to Red ratio remains constant until the Elite Eight, when only Michigan State remains from a Republican-held district. But, keep in mind, Obama did win this district last fall.

Among the Democrats, the Blue Dogs find themselves outflanked by the Progressive Caucus. Three Blue Dogs are represented in the tournament (Utah’s Jim Matheson, Kansas’ Dennis Moore and FSU’s Allen Boyd). The Progressive Caucus, on the other hand, has lots of teams in the Big Dance: Arizona, California, UCLA, USC, Butler, BC, Morgan St, Minnesota, Wake Forest, Cornell, Binghamton, Cleveland State, Temple, Memphis, Washington and Wisconsin all play in districts represented by members of the Progressive Caucus.

Other fun Partisan Big Dance factoids:
Only two districts are represented by two teams in this year’s tournament:

Tobacco Road’s David Price (NC-08 - Duke and Carolina)
Upstate New York’s Maurice Hinchey (NY-22 – Cornell and Binghamton)

Thirty-two states (and the District of Columbia) are represented in the field of 65. Seventeen states (AZ, CA, IN, KY, MD, MI, NC, NY, OH, OK, PA, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA and WI) are represented by more than one team. California, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Tennessee lead the way with four teams each in the tourney. Of these 32 states, Obama won 18 (representing 302 electoral votes- including DC) to McCain’s 13 (127 EVs)

The most populous state without a home team to root for is Georgia. Conversely, the smallest state sending a team this year is North Dakota.

The only state (aside from DC and North Dakota) to have all of its districts represented is Utah.

If you’ve gotten this far, thanks for indulging me two of my passions – March Madness and political minutiae. Totally pointless, I know, but a wonderful diversion from economic meltdowns, Wall Street Ponzi schemes and Octo-Mom.

Enjoy the madness!

Sunday Muse, Ides of March Edition

2009-03-15T07:51:00.000-07:00

Caesar: Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue shriller than all the music
Cry "Caesar!" Speak, Caesar is turn'd to hear.

Soothsayer: Beware the ides of March.

Caesar: What man is that?

Brutus: A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.
Julius Caesar Act 1, scene 2, 15–19

As if Team Obama didn’t have enough on its plate already:
· Sea level rise caused by melting Antarctic ice sheets and Greenland glaciers could inundate Florida by the end of the century.
· Could the raging drug war south of the border become the defining foreign policy crisis of the Obama Presidency?

From the Economic FUBAR File:
· Wonder what Harry “The Buck Stops Here” Truman would think of the Alan Greenspan’s "The Fed Didn't Cause the Housing Bubble" drivel?
· Does anyone else think NBC's censorship to protect GE’s bottom line no worse than Fox News' regurgitating of GOP talking points?

With campaign 2008 still not resolved in Minnesota, the politicos are already revving up for Election Day 2010. Can the Democrats break through and win a filibuster-breaking 60 Senate seats? The bigger question is, “Do they really want to?”

They could break the threshold by enticing Arlen Specter to abandon the dwindling herd of Irrelephants in the Senate. As we debate the possibility, the wingnuts at Human Events provide their hunting list of RINO Senators. You know it’s bad when Utah’s Bob Bennett and Mississippi’s Thad Cochran make their top ten.

Pure drivel from CQ Politics about the tough place Harry Reid finds himself in:

As Senate majority leader, he juggles a myriad of competing political interests. He also has to balance those against his own best interest as he gears up for a potentially tough re-election battle in 2010.
Lately, the Nevada Democrat has been putting some daylight between his positions and President Obama’s. It’s a strategy that might help him avoid the fate of Tom Daschle, who was defeated for re-election in South Dakota in 2004 despite being the Senate’s top Democrat.
Reid, 69, recently has made a point of saying he’s working with
Obama, not for him.

Right. Nevada’s voters backed President Obama last fall and kicked out one of their two Republican house members. The incumbent Republican governor is one of the least popular in the nation and the administration has moved to abandon Yucca Mountain, removing Nevada politics’ most radioactive issue and Harry Reid is afraid of running as part of the President’s team?

The analogy to Tom Daschle who ran in a Deep Red state against a very popular president riding the post-9/11 Terror Train is intellectually lame. If Reid is indeed frightened of the specter of Daschle’s defeat, Democrats should be worried about the quality of our Senate leadership.

Change I Can Believe In:
· Breaking the stalemate: Pat Leahy threatens to name names.
· Restoring the Constitution: Confounding Republicans, Democrats show they understand the Founding Principle of the three co-equal branches of government. After years of rubberstamping Dubya's policies, GOPers are perplexed by congressional Democrats fulfilling their Constitutional role.

From the “Wishful Thinking” File:
Doomsday Clock May Finally Stop Ticking

Ending on a positive note: Americans love our new First Lady.

"Socialism!" or Greed is Good

2009-03-13T16:10:00.001-07:00

The graph on the right (from Washington Monthly via MoveOn) exposes the Gordon Gecko greed behind the ridiculous Republican chorus of "socialism!" over Obama's plan to roll back the Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans.

Returning the top marginal rate to 1990s levels (when the Clinton economy boomed and we created budget surpluses) would still tax the rich at levels below those during Reagan's first term and much lower than the 91% levied during the Eisenhower years.

The combination of Bush's irresponsible tax cuts and Cheney's military misadventures has proven a lethal combination to the American economy. Trickle Down economics simply didn't work. As the rich got more, the rest received less. Middle class families have paid a high price for this failed ideology. In the current recession they have lost millions of jobs. Their nest eggs have disappeared as the market crashed and the housing bubble burst.

And the Republican response to this chaos? Cry "Socialism!" when all that's being asked of the rich (many of whom are the titans of finance that brought us to this precipice) is that they pay a marginally higher tax rate to help fix our shattered economy.

Gordon Gecko would be proud.

If There Was One Word...

2009-03-13T11:07:00.000-07:00

This one might be a few weeks old, but it's pretty interesting to see how the public's perception of President Obama transformed between his last days as a candidate and his first weeks as president.

Pew Research asked respondents to name the one word that best describes Barack Obama. The first cloud reflects survey results from February 2009 and the second shows responses provided in September 2008 :

What a difference an election (and an economic meltdown) makes.

Jonah Goldberg: Tell Me Lies, Great Big Lies...

2009-03-10T09:22:00.000-07:00

The latest from Jonah Goldberg provides another glimpse into the alternative reality that is modern Republicanism:

The real scandal is that this administration thinks crises are opportunities for governmental power-grabs...
...the White House tactic isn't funny at all. It's scary. Its amorality is outweighed only by the grotesque and astoundingly naked cynicism of it all.

Apparently, it's the last part - "the naked cynicism" that really irks Jonah. He compares Republican opposition to Obama's aggressive agenda to progressive criticism of the neocon's use of 9/11 to terrorize a traumatized nation into launching the invasion of Iraq.

Recall that not long ago, the first item on the bill of indictment against the Bush administration was that it was "exploiting" 9/11 to enact its agenda. Al Gore shrieked that President Bush "played on our fears" to get his way. In response to nearly every Bush policy proposal, from the Patriot Act to the toppling of Saddam Hussein, critics would caterwaul that Bush was taking advantage of the country's fear of terrorism.
The Bush administration always denied this, and rightly so. If the president admitted that he was using a national calamity for narrow partisan or ideological advantage, it would be outrageous.

Get that? It would be outrageous if the president admitted he was manipulating people's fear to advance a partisan agenda. Lying about terror threats, weapons of mass destruction and about Nigerian yellow cake is righteous and noble as long as you tell the people your motives are pure.

In contrast, look at how blatant the Obama administration has been during the first six weeks in office!

Well, now we have the president, along with his chief aides, admitting -- boasting! -- that they want to exploit a national emergency for their preexisting agenda, and there's no scandal. No one even calls it a gaffe. No, they call it leadership.
It's not leadership. It's fear-mongering.

Beyond the jaw-dropping hypocrisy and repugnant revisionist history in this article, let's just say this: Bush's terror-manipulating lies resulted in thousands of American and Iraqi dead, a bankrupt global economy and the collapse of America's moral authority. Obama's honest assessment of the dangerous economic crisis (created by his predecessor's lies) offers the promise of healthcare access for millions, a greener planet, a better educated workforce and the hope of economic growth for generations to come.

I'll take Obama's honesty any day.

In God We Trust...NOT

2009-03-09T09:25:00.000-07:00

America, long one of the most religious of western industrialized nations, has undergone a rapid transformation over the past two decades according to a new ARIS study reported in USA Today:

It finds that, despite growth and immigration that has added nearly 50 million adults to the U.S. population, almost all religious denominations have lost ground since the first ARIS survey in 1990.

Twenty-first century Americans are much more likely to embrace spiritual options outside organized religion. Considering the theocratic nature of the modern Republican Party, this is devastating news for the GOP as it struggles to find a path forward.

• So many Americans claim no religion at all (15%, up from 8% in 1990), that this category now outranks every other major U.S. religious group except Catholics and Baptists. In a nation that has long been mostly Christian, "the challenge to Christianity … does not come from other religions but from a rejection of all forms of organized religion," the report concludes.

Check out USA Today's cool interactive graphic illustrating the nation's religious shifts. Catholic numbers are dropping in New England and the midwest. The study attributes this to the sexual abuse scandals that rocked many Catholic dioceses over the past fifteen years. As the region aborbs emigrants from across the country, Baptists no longer dominate the South as they once did.

One of the survey's co-authors, Barry Kosmin's comments must cause Republican strategists to quake in fear at their long-term electoral prospects:

"More than ever before, people are just making up their own stories of who they are. They say, 'I'm everything. I'm nothing. I believe in myself,' " says Barry Kosmin, survey co-author.
...
Kosmin concluded from the 1990 data that many saw God as a "personal hobby," and that the USA is "a greenhouse for spiritual sprouts."
Today, he says, "religion has become more like a fashion statement, not a deep personal commitment for many."

Ouch.

This demographic shift gets right to the heart of the division rending the Republican Party.

Will increased intermingling of religious and spiritual experiences lead to more tolerance in our national dialogue? Or, will conservative reactionaries see this tapestry of faith traditions as a threat to the "American Way of Life" and continue to try to divide Americans along religious lines?

The Sunday Muse, Daylight Savings Edition

2009-03-08T05:38:00.000-07:00

Does this mean 40% of Americans are an hour behind today?

Dispatches from the 25% of reality-challenged Americans:

Has the Dittohead army scored another victory over RNC Chair Steele?

Is David Frum planting the seeds of a conservative rebirth?

From Charlie Cook:

The longer Obama is involved in the gritty details of governing, the less likely he is to regain his popularity among Republicans.

So, Republicans will like Obama again once he stops doing his job?

Is There Something in the Water

2009-03-06T10:22:00.000-08:00

that makes Texans fans of the epic fail?

Wingnut, Get Your Gun!

2009-03-05T10:50:00.000-08:00

I have long been on email lists from both Democratic and Republican and non-partisan interest groups. Understanding how differently each views and interprets political events has always fascinated me. For a few years I worked at a small non-profit monitoring Political Talk Radio. Long before the current Rush Rising – during the Clinton impeachment - I was listening to Limbaugh, G. Gordon Liddy, and Oliver North on a daily basis.

Somehow my head didn’t explode nor did the experience cause me to lose faith in progressive ideas. In fact, the opposite happened. It did immunize me to the racist, homophobic, misogynistic tirades that are the bread and butter of the Angry Right. When vicious and irrational emails attacking a Democratic candidate’s religion, sexual orientation or patriotism, I often follow my father’s sage advice when he would simply say, “Christopher, consider the source.” I’ve even learned to shrug off Coulter’s nonsensical crap.

In addition to the lies they perpetuate about President Obama (he’s a Muslim, America-hating, Iran-loving Socialist!), the Right-Wing nutcases send emails denouncing global warming, vilifying immigrants, and blaming ACORN for Wall Street’s crash. It’s clear that reality and the Right went separate ways long ago and Republicans have paid the price at the ballot box.

But, this morning, an email from World Net Daily via Human Events was simply blood-chilling.

The subject line read: MILLIONAIRE PATRIOT WANTS YOU ARMED AND TRAINED

I’ll admit I don’t understand the fear gun enthusiasts have that the government is going to take away law-abiding citizens’ right to bear arms. If it didn’t happen after tragedies like Columbine or Virginia Tech, the government is going to start seizing guns anytime soon.

When the Angry Right, in the wake of a presidential campaign that saw Palin campaign events look more like the marauding peasants storming Dracula’s castle, urges their base to arm themselves because Democrats control Congressional majorities and the White House, I’m fearful for our future.

MILLIONAIRE PATRIOT WANTS YOU ARMED AND TRAINED
Offers His Own Money to
Provide You With Springfield
Armory Pistol and 30-State Concealed Weapon Permit

Dear Reader,
The next four years may prove to be a turning point for all freedom loving Americans.
With the new administration holding party majorities in the House and Senate, we are facing the worst political environment for the passage of unchecked gun control legislation and further erosion of our constitutional right to bear arms than we have previously seen in our lifetimes.

As the nation creeps from recession to depression, the potential for civil unrest in every major city grows more likely. There has never been a more crucial time in our nation's history to make sure you are armed and trained for the protection of yourself and your family.
One man in our country knows this better than most, and I'm proud to tell you, he is doing something about it.
His name is Dr. Ignatius Piazza.
He is the Founder and Director of Front Sight Firearms Training
Institute and is known by his hundreds of thousands of students as 'The Millionaire Patriot' because he has literally given away millions of dollars in free and discounted training to law abiding citizens to assist them is securing what he refers to as "The Comfort of Skill at Arms."
Dr. Piazza, the Millionaire Patriot, wants YOU armed and trained and he is putting his money where his mouth is.
He is providing you with the opportunity to attend five days of world class training at his Front Sight Firearms Training Institute with everything you need to secure permits to carry a concealed handgun in over 30 states-all for pennies-on-the-dollar!
Plus, if you act quickly before all the guns he set aside are gone, he will give you, free of charge, a Springfield Armory XD Pistol in your choice of 9mm, .40SW, or .45ACP!
That's right. This is legitimate. Thousands of people have already taken advantage of it AND YOU SHOULD TOO!
I can personally vouch for Dr. Piazza and his Front Sight Firearms Training Institute.
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Stampeding Elephants

2009-03-04T13:40:00.000-08:00

In an effort to give credit where it's due...

Last spring, Chuck Todd predicted that whichever party lost the 2008 presidential election would be “headed for a 2009 crack-up that could prove as messy as any party civil war in recent history.” With Huffington Post reporting that Republicans are already turning against newly-minted RNC Chair Michael Steele and Rush Limbaugh’s ego devouring the party leadership, it appears that Todd’s forecast has come true, proving that sometimes the chattering classes get something correct.

How does that saying go? Even a broken clock is accurate twice a day…

Tweeting Their Way Back to Relevance?

2009-03-03T18:25:00.000-08:00

Direct mail, talk radio, the Internet, YouTube, and social networking have all played crucial roles in modern American presidential campaigns. Each party’s fortunes have ebbed and flowed with their ability to successfully use emerging communication technologies. Identifying the next cycle’s new media format is the political consultant’s Holy Grail. The next big thing, according to the current issue of Politics magazine is Twitter.

And, they argue Republicans are running circles around Democrats with this new technology. Say what?

Recently, we’ve seen a tsunami of Congressional tweeters, or maybe “twits” would be more appropriate:

Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI) got himself in hot water with the Pentagon. A barrage of tweeting during Obama’s speech last week caused quite a stir. For Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), it was her mother who disapproved of her inappropriate twirps, although her twittering was sparse compared to compulsive tweeter Rep. John Culberson (R-TX). Someone on Rep. Joe Barton’s (R-TX) staff urged people to turn on the Aggie’s basketball game on ESPN2 rather than “watching Pelosi smirk for the next half hour.”

Clearly, Twitter-obsessed politicians have a ways to go before becoming Micro-Blogging Masters. If Twitter is the key to the next campaign cycle, does it matter if Democrats cede the technology to the Republicans?

For many cycles, Republicans were most adept at direct mail, an expensive (but effective) medium that provided a small dollar fundraising network, massive voter ID files and an election day GOTV advantage that proved decisive in many campaigns. The conservatives also understood the power of talk radio decades before progressives realized Republicans were conducting daily focus groups with moderators named Limbaugh, Hannity, and Ingraham. Despite Michael Steele’s recent comments, political talk radio has long been much more than “ugly and incendiary” entertainment. It provides Republicans a conservative echo chamber that shapes opinion, creates and disseminates talking points, and morphs into a grassroots activist storm on a moment’s notice.

After trailing Republicans technologically for so long, Democrats were the first to harness the power of the Internet as both a fundraising and organizing tool. Dean’s online ATM in 2004 was the precursor to the Obama finance juggernaut that stunned politicos throughout 2007-2008. Democratic candidates have been more comfortable with the blogosphere, understanding the grassroots organizing potential in ways Republicans have yet to fully grasp. In 2008, Democrats augmented their online advantage as they proved most agile in the newest online tools – YouTube and social networking sites, transforming politics into a participatory experience unseen in a generation.

So, yes, if micro-blogging becomes the communications technology that transforms campaigns in 2010 and 2012, it will matter which party does it better. Despite claiming that “Democrats have stood aside as Republicans conquer Twitter,” the Politics article cites scant evidence Republicans have done anything meaningful with the medium.

…when Orange County Republican legislator Chuck Devore set out to topple California Sen. Barbara Boxer, Hart knew his client had an uphill climb—but saw a strategic advantage: the 46-year-old Devore is a blogger.
“We knew we could tap into our new media advantage to get us some buzz,” he says.
So Hart set up a “Tweet for Chuck” campaign. Devore put out a call for contributions, and importantly, echoed out the responses: “@justin_hart gave $25 to my campaign to help defeat Boxer. @DavidAll referred!”
That tactic helped to ripple excitement around Devore’s candidacy out through his, Hart’s and All’s combined networks of 6,000 followers. More useful than the money raised—Devore attracted contributions from 160 Twitterers—was the attention his quixotic campaign received, including a profile in the Wall Street Journal. Hart is now executing a similar strategy for the Heritage Foundation.

A grand total of 160 donations and a write up in Murdoch’s WSJ means the Republicans have run circles around the complacent Democrats? Actually, they’ve pounced:

Republicans have pounced on the opening. Top Conservatives on Twitter is a popular leaderboard of the right’s Twittegensia, and Rep. John Culberson (R-Texas)—perhaps best known for being the first member of Congress to tweet from the House floor—enjoys 5,700 followers. That’s more than three times Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Mat Morrison, a digital communications planner for Porter Novelli, created a great map of congressional Twitter users for his blog, mediaczar.com. Legions of Republicans use the service, but a scant handful of Democrats. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid isn’t on Twitter at all, while Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has about 700 followers. (Morrison points out that the two groups are pretty clique-y—there’s little information flow between the two groups. In other words, Dems tweet only to Dems, Republicans tweet only to Republicans.)

What’s so appealing to embattled conservatives is the chance Twitter provides to exploit what sociologists call “the strength of weak ties”—or as Ruffini puts it, “connecting [you to] people you should know.” And perhaps more importantly for a party struggling to reclaim its purpose, Twitter excels at spreading ideas. Thanks to Twitter traffic, in less than a single day last summer “#dontgo” became a battle cry for Republicans who refused to leave the House floor to protest Pelosi’s refusal to debate domestic oil drilling.

Legions of Republicans and a scant handful of Democrats certainly sounds intimidating. But according to the numbers at TweetCongress.org, the current scorecard of Congressional tweeters is 65 Republicans vs. 35 Democrats. This represents 28% of elected Republicans and only 11% of Democrats on the Hill, a minority of both parties. Considering their leadership positions, it makes sense Pelosi and Reid (and Obama who has essentially suspended tweeting since his election) that these Democrats aren’t sending moment-by-moment updates. Considering the potential for embarrassment (see Rep. Barton) or scandal and the limitations of communicating detailed policy positions in a 140-character window, it’s understandable that people in leadership positions might shy away from this format. In fact, it isn’t all that difficult to make the argument that microblogging is a tool more conducive to the opposition.

Besides, if you’re a party lacking substantive ideas and placing all your hopes on stopping the president’s agenda, it makes sense that Twitter might send a tingle down your leg.

Maybe an "O" Would've Been Smarter?

2008-10-24T12:45:00.000-07:00

The first hint there was something fishy about Ashley Todd's allegations was the backwards "B" carved into her face. Since when does the Obama campaign use his first initial?

Now that the story has been revealed as a hoax perpetrated by an ill young woman, three things come to mind about the state of our media.

1) Isn't it ironic the most prolific purveyors of propaganda (Drudge and Fox News) were so easily drawn into this hoax? Is it because they are blinded to facts and reality by the way they conduct business on a daily basis?

2) Is Matt Drudge nothing more than the "Little Man Behind the Curtain" from Oz? For over a decade the Internet spinmaster has been viewed as the Freak Show's conservative Master of Ceremonies, the media maven with the uncanny knack to uncover the 'below the fold' stories, elevate and manipulate them to help shape media narratives to Republican advantage. Mark Halperin has written:

"The Drudge Report is really unique in being able to drive stories in the mainstream media. Republican operatives use him…. Drudge has become the ultimate insider in being able to effect the public narrative that is so important in political campaigns.”

Does this signal the end of this Drudge mythology? Is this nothing more than a mirage? I wonder how many of these 'scoops' (complete with blaring red siren, of course) turn out to be hoaxes. Does the Monica scoop forever innoculate him to irresponsible, unsourced irrational reporting? Probably not.

3) How does Fox News escape the trap they set for themselves? Who would've predicted it would be Fox News the first to declare the McCain campaign D.O.A.?

Fundamentally Wrong

2008-09-16T08:40:00.000-07:00

The Wall Street meltdown has refocused the presidential campaign on the economy. Strategists on both sides of the aisle acknowledge this benefits Democrats up and down the ticket.

Clearly, TeamObama senses the game has returned to their turf and comes out swinging at the tone-deaf McCain, who provided a fundamental assist on the campaign trail.

Maybe this will silence the Democratic Party's anxious Chicken Littles for a few days?

Meanwhile, the McCain team has releaseds an ad (called "Crisis") contradicting their claim that the economy is fundamentally sound. Which is it, Sen. McCain?

Traditionally the more adept party at staying on message, Republicans have been reduced to incoherent stuttering on the issue that matters the most to American voters. Perhaps that's because their failed, laissez-faire, trickle down economic theory doesn't work?

McCain: Ready to Lie

2008-09-16T08:09:00.001-07:00

What does it say when Karl Rove thinks you've gone too far?

It's only a matter of time before John McCain's infamous temper explodes and destroys his candidacy.

The Blame Game Begins with an Assist from Halperin

2008-09-10T11:48:00.000-07:00

Last night's AC360 had a group of panelists discussing how Democrats are "flummoxed, off-balance" and "flatfooted" by the Palin pick:

Notice Mark Halperin's closing remarks (around 4:15 in the video clip)and I thought, "here we go. The first rehabilitation effort of Hillary & Bill for the 2012 campaign."

Transcript:

AC: Mark Halperin, you were talking about Hillary...it would be fascinating to know what Hillary Clinton is thinking right now.

MH: Yeah, can I share this with you? I bought this a few weeks ago in Denver. As they say on TV, "can you see this?" It says, "Hillary Clinton, the most formidable and phenomenal women of 2008." That's two weeks ago and it was true. It's not true anymore. Sarah Palin is now more of a phenom and she's very formidable.

I think Hillary Clinton is saying - I don't know this - I think she's saying, the beginning of the "I told you so." She said the reason Obama would be a dangerous nominee is that he would be rattled by the Republicans when they came at him, that he would be inexperienced and that he would be flustered by all of this. And we're seeing it now. I'm not saying he's collapsed but, boy, are they off their game."

Seriously, he's innoculating the Clintons against any charges they may be held responsible for an Obama loss. The media is helping create the quadrennial Democratic circular firing squad already - despite the fact the calendar shows Election Day more than 50 days away - and the Democrat ahead in the Electoral College!

Something to Talk About

2008-09-06T10:55:00.001-07:00

The NY Times graphically shows the partisan differences between the convention speakers:

What stands out from this chart is:

Joe Lieberman said NOTHING.

Bill Clinton strayed from the foreign policy message the Obama camp had wanted -- but was rendered a non-issue considering his full-throated endorsement of the Democratic nominee.

Sarah Palin attacked the Dems less often (or perhaps less overtly) than my initial, real-time impression. Does this means her vindictiveness was subtle and snarky? If so, this is a trecherous path for a new candidate (at the risk of being called a sexist, it's especially perilous for a female) to tread.

Moreover, the Republicans simply echoed the call for change. Since anyone with half a brain has known since the 2006 midterms this would be a change election, it seems they're playing a desperate game of catch-up.

The Clock is Ticking...

2008-09-05T16:49:00.000-07:00

In the wake of the Republican Rapture in St. Paul it might be easy to overlook the potentially fatal weakness still haunting the McCain campaign.

McCain's desperate need to solidify his base going into St. Paul (resulting in the electrifying "roll of the dice" pick of pistol-packing Palin) means he lost his biggest opportunity to address the concerns of moderate voters.

Obama has been speaking to the middle/independent voters for MONTHS - even while the campaign was still battling Hillary in full primary mode. And what was McCain doing on Labor Day? Shoring up his far right base. Nothing that he or his surrogates said in Minnesota was aimed at attracting the middle or addressing the top concerns of the American electorate. It was nothing more than red meat for the Red Staters.

For a candidate who represents a shrinking party, playing to the base is simply not enough to win an election. It's clear McCain remains months behind with only two months ago.

Politics 101 says playing to your base this late in the game is a sure way to lose an election. Of course, as with almost everything else that has happened in this crazy campaign, this may rule may not apply.

Will Working Women Embrace Sarah?

2008-09-04T07:35:00.000-07:00

Typically, I choose to watch events like Sarah Palin's convention speech on C-Span, in virtual isolation without the filter of the media's chatter. Last night I was only able to catch partial snippets of Palin's speech live and out in public. This provided the opportunity to gauge the reaction of average citizens.

As the Palin selection has been viewed as a play for women voters, the reactions of the women during the speech were quite interesting, if only anectdotal. Most were saying such "un-PC" things like, "How can she do that to her 17-year-old daughter? Putting her on a national stage like that?" Or, "How can she talk about a special needs child needing more attention and then go out on the road campaigning for the next two months?" The consensus emerged, "No mother I know would make these choices."

This morning, Mika Brzezinski over at MSNBC's Morning Joe is gushing over how Palin spoke to her as a professional woman. She berated Lawrence O'Donnell for saying, "There are lots of middle class families wondering, 'who's taking care of all those kids?'" She was completely offended and described the question as unfair and sexist.

This may indeed be true. However, I think there are LOTS of Americans - male and female - looking at this family and trying to imagine if they would have made the same decisions. Polling this accurately is probably impossible because the questions regarding family are personal and complex.

Despite decades of striving forward, women still bear the brunt of our society's expectations when it comes to parenting. This is why some professional women are going to be offended by questions they believe (perhaps rightly) shouldn't be asked of a female candidate. At the same time, other working women are likely to ask the questions I heard last night.

The Game Has Changed

2008-09-03T12:06:00.000-07:00

I am coming to the conclusion that the Palin pick was, indeed a game changer. A few things worth watching over the next couple of weeks:

1) The Palin image is still under construction - and the jury may be out for quite some time regarding how she will be ultimately perceived. Despite today's media hyper-speculation I don't think tonight's speech is actually a "make or break" situation. Think about how many moments over the past 18 months that the chattering class made a similar prediction about Obama's situation. Her sixty-day introduction to the American people is going to be a minefield for the McCain campaign. This morning some media are reporting Palin may not be out on the campaign until after Sept 11 - when her son ships off to Iraq. Will she be seen as a reformer? Or a hypocritical opportunist?

2) Will McCain's camp be successful in deflecting criticism of Palin by using the "sexism" card? Campaign surrogate Carly Fiorina was on MSNBC this afternoon using a diabolical argument that went along the lines,

"The Democratic Party stood by while Hillary Clinton was subjected to incredible sexism in the media. The Republican Party is not going to stand by. And I don't believe that millions of American women are going to stand by. Whether they agree with Sarah Palin or not, I think women are highly sensitized now to sexism. And when someone of accomplishment is described more as a show horse than a work horse women recognize that for what it is. It's sexism."

Somehow, the Republicans think they're going to claim the mantle of post-partisan feminists. It's a classic Rovian twist - take one of your opponent's strengths and turn it into a potential point of weakness. In this case, they've been lured by the Angry Hillary Voter, believing they can continue dividing the electorate - and convincing some disaffected group to vote against their own self-interest. It's coupled with their tried and true attacks on the media as biased against conservatives.

3) How does the 'love affair' between McCain and the media end? Typically, relationships built on illusions and deception come crashing to bitter ends, with recriminations all around. The media had been awakening to the real McCain (if he ever was a 'maverick,' he certainly hadn't been acting like one during the primaries) over the summer. I don't think the total surprise of the Palin pick is going to wear well within the tradmed, his core constituency.

Remember those old "I Can't Believe It's Butter!" commercials where the woman cloaked in flowing white bellowed, "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature!!!" Well, the media is another -(un)natural force and I don't think they like being played for fools or targeted as scapegoats. The media was clearly frustrated by Obama's 3AM text message to supporters announcing the Biden pick (as it took them out of the dialogue). That frustration may have been overwhelmed by the absolute surprise of McCain picking Palin. Already disoriented by their rapidly evolving and now less familiar role in modern politics, these latest developments may have awakened a docile press corps. Both campaigns could be subjected to heightened scrutiny as a result.

4) Where is the storyline about the disunity in the Republican Party? After the breathless media coverage of the barely existent "Hillary-Bill-Barack" schism leading up to Denver, the silence about the Ron Paul shadow convention going on in Minneapolis, the bruised Romney ego after being shunted aside as a VP, and the reopened rift between Dubya and McCain is remarkable.

The fact that the Palin pick plays well within the convention hall (she gets louder applause than McCain does almost universally) means there are far more differences within the Republican party than the media is covering. In fact, her selection by McCain is an admission of his own unpopularity with the base. But, the question lingers, "Are the establishment republicans (fiscal conservatives and national security hawks) happy about this pick?" They're being drowned out on the convention floor (and the spinners are remaining faithful to the RNC talking points) but are these rank-and-file voters energized or disheartened by Palin as the number 2?

5) The Palin pick has electrified the base on social issues and has threatened to subvert BOTH campaigns' main messaging objectives. Obama and the Democrats want to talk issues - economy, Iraq, energy - while the McCain camp wanted to resurrect his moderate maverick image. Everything is being drowned by social issues. Within the St Paul cocoon this may seem smart, but whether this translates into a successful general election campaign is uncertain. The elevation of the divisive social issues may -incite- excite the conservative base but there is a huge risk (for Republicans) that a significant backlash from the middle could overwhelm them.

A week ago, in the wake of Obama's once in a lifetime speech, I thought 'the only thing the Dems are missing this year is a 1992 Pat Buchanan hate speech from the GOP convention.' At the time, it was pure fantasy. Now, after watching the conservative rapture in St. Paul, I wouldn't be surprised if someone unpacks the pitchforks tonight.

It's been said before but it's worth repeating: this is the election year of a lifetime.

Palin' in Comparison

2008-08-29T08:13:00.001-07:00

Twelve hours ago, after a Mile High acceptance speech, the chattering classes were awestruck.

This morning, they're simply dumbstruck.

Sarah Palin? Really?

Moving Goalposts Arrive in Denver

2008-08-27T11:13:00.001-07:00

I realize now that those shifting goalposts from the primary season may have been much more media-created than I previously understood.

Last night I was impressed by Hillary's speech after having been firmly ensconced in the ABC (Anybody But Clinton) Camp throughout the primaries. This morning, I found myself amazed, enraged and ashamed by how the media is pushing the PUMA-driven "Clintonistas are bitter" storyline so aggressively.

I'm exhausted by the media's relentless handwringing (and schizophrenic) chorus.

First, they told us, "Michelle must define herself and allow voters to become comfortable with her family"
initial reviews: CHECK
"Good job. But where was the red meat?" Is there any rational human (other than those who receive the RNC's daily talking points email) who believes the image of an angry, on-the-attack Mrs. Obama would have endeared her to undecided voters?

Next they turned their obsession to Hillary's Herculean task. "How can Hillary pivot and transfer the support of her 18-million strong army to become part of Barack's Battalion? Will she look genuine? Or will she come off as readying her 2012 bid?"
initial reviews: missions accomplished!
Well, she was good - maybe her best speech ever, in fact. But, wait, come to think of it, you know she forgot to mention whether or not she now feels Obama is ready to receive that 3 AM call. And, look, here's an angry white woman who still seems dissatisfied that the system robbed Hillary. Cleary, she left some work undone.

Where are all the critiques of the Bush/Cheney administration? Why haven't they hung that 24% approval rating around McCain's neck? They're missing their opportunity! Is this Kerry '04 redux? When will the Democrats learn politics is a contact sport? All the time they're saying this, speaker after speaker is on the podium denouncing Bush, McCain and failed Republican policies.

The media opts to air more of themselves bloviating about the real issue before voters: Bill Clinton feels dissed by the upstart and aloof Barack Obama.

So, today we're treated to "What will Bill say? And, what will he look like while he's saying it? Will he look like he's passing a kidney stone? Will he wag his finger? Even more importantly, what will he be thinking when he says it?

Thankfully, we have Dr. Maureen Dowd to help us with that analysis.

Oh, and by the way, Obama speaking in front of 75,000 people - that just reinforces this celebrity thing dontcha think? Politicians should be serious and not really popular. American leaders should be plodding and boring - not inspirational. Maybe if he had spent time in a POW camp, he would understand how unwise it is to make the most important speech of his lifetime in such a public venue.

The inevitable result is an unwinnable situation where Democrats are confronted by an endgame with bogus goalposts, impossible Catch-22s created by morning after psychologists and manufactured drama driven by a minority who are desperate for their fifteen seconds of fame (yes, in the youtube era, Warhol's prediction has been truncated into nothing more than a sound bite).

I've taken to watching the convention on CSPAN, where there is no bloviating media telling me what to think. I'm hoping Barack and Plouffe have made a similar decision.

UPDATE 3:26, 8/26/08: The Boston Globe's editors share my affinity for CSPAN's convention coverage.

GALLUP: Campaign 2008 Cliff Notes

2008-08-23T10:20:00.001-07:00

Gallup's "Quick Read on the Election" provides a presidential campaign overview as we approach the unprecedented "back-to-back" party conventions. After the two week hiatus provided by the IOC, the roller-coaster is about to begin. How do the "experts" see the general election shaping up?

Not surprisingly, the Gallup Gate Keepers reinforce the traditional media's prevailing narrative. Despite the Democrats' "structural" election advantage (Democrats are viewed much more favorably than the GOP and more Americans are identifying as Democrats), Obama is underperforming in national polls. His average lead of three points throughout the summer indicates a third straight close election. While both nominees-in-waiting have solidified their partisan coalitions (despite the coverage some outlets have provided to the PUMAs), neither McCain nor Obama has exhibited either partisan cross-over appeal or the ability to build a significant lead among independent voters necessary to alter this "50/50 Nation" dynamic.

Pattern of candidate support is similar to 2000 and 2004 elections. Obama's strengths: non-white race and ethnic groups, including blacks and Hispanics; 18-29; those with postgraduate educations; women; those with very low incomes; those who have no religious identification/for whom religion is not important/do not attend church; those who are unmarried. McCain's strengths: non-Hispanic whites; 65 and older; those who are married; white Protestants and non-Catholic Christians; whites who attend church frequently/for whom religion is important.

Ever-helpful, the pollsters also raise a couple of red flags for the Obama campaign, reinforcing the nervous hand-wringing among nervous Democrats watching national and state polls tightening.

Current position of the candidates predicts little. In previous two elections, both candidates who lead polls in summer, pre-convention (Bush in 2000, Kerry in 2004), ended up losing the popular vote.

History predicts modest bounces for candidates when they make their vice presidential announcements and after their conventions. This year, all of this will be compressed in a short two-week period in late August/early September. Back-to-back conventions are unprecedented. Voters will have a steady stream of election input. Bounce will likely follow bounce. This could be one of most fascinating times in presidential election history. Standings after conventions will be critical.

Earlier this summer, Gallup reminded political junkies that the July polling leader has lost six of the last nine close presidential elections. History clearly isn't on Obama's side, the chattering class warns. The failure to close the deal (despite leading McCain in national polling since February, which is VERY different from the polling swings witnessed in both 2000 and 2004) means Obama's candidacy could be following Gore and Kerry to electoral defeat. As if on cue, a chorus of "The sky is falling! The sky is falling!" has risen from Chicken Little Democrats who fear yet another defeat in the wake of what was once deemed near-certain victory.

And don't overlook the 2008 convention calendar quirk. The back-to-back conventions – particularly during this era of the 24/7 never-ending news cycle – may negate the Mile High Convention/VP selection bounce many Democratic activists and media talking heads anticipate. The electorate's short attention span and the media's rapid transition from Denver to St. Paul may lessen (or even erase) the Democratic bounce. If this happens, expect the chattering class to start more clucking about Barack's "failure to seal the deal." The fate of his candidacy will come down to the debates. The punditocracy will fretfully ask, "Will Obama lose the election with a "Gore sigh"? And Democratic partisans will sweat it out, fearful of history repeating itself.

But, wait. Not so fast.

Gallup provides Obama a lifeline. And it's one Team Obama has been aware of all along.

Turnout will be a key factor. Obama would benefit from unusual (and unprecedented) enthusiasm among young voters and minority voters. McCain would benefit from a more typical higher turnout among Republicans, highly religious white voters. Results of likely voter modeling this summer so far have been mixed.

Note what they're saying here. It is young voters (who until this past primary season had historically been one of the least engaged voting blocs) who hold the key to an Obama victory. The Democrats' unprecedented investment in field offices, grassroots organizing, voter registration and Election Day GOTV efforts is critical and unpredictable. If the pollsters can't confidently identify which voters will actually show up at the polls, it is difficult to provide accurate polling numbers. If the Democrats are successful in increasing the youth vote (combined with even a slight uptick in minority participation), the polls may be irrelevant – and horrifically inaccurate. This is without considering the underrepresentation of voters under 35, whose reliance on cell phones places them beyond the reach of traditional polling.

At the same time, McCain is forced to rely on an unmotivated (and shrinking) Republican base. Nothing indicates the enthusiasm gap the Democrats have enjoyed (in fundraising, voter id and voter interest) over the past year and a half has closed. On the eve of the Mile High convention, Pew tells us the electorate is much more interested in the Democratic shindig than the Republican pow-wow. Unless the conventions and VP picks dramatically alter the dynamics, Obama's investment in grassroots infrastructure may be the difference-maker this November.

Finally, Gallup's last point moves beyond the horse race and to the issues which may determine how the electorate will decide:

Top voter issues this year skew towards the domestic, in particular economy and energy. Iraq, healthcare, and terrorism remain important. Obama's perceived strengths: domestic issues, compassion, empathy, bringing about change. McCain's perceived strengths: experience, international issues, terrorism, viewed as capable commander in chief. A continuing uptick in consumer confidence and increase in perceived success in Iraq could benefit McCain.

I don't agree with Gallup's conclusion. Following months of an economy mired in a severe stall, it's rather late in the game for an "uptick in consumer confidence" to make a difference in how Americans feel about the general direction of the country. If Team Obama succeeds in tying McCain to the Bush economic policies, it's difficult to see how the Republican can overtake the Democrat on these domestic concerns.

The electorate's feelings about Iraq also seem firmly set. McCain will continue and elevate the fearmongering. The Islamofascist threat, memories of 9-11, a new Cold War with the Russians on the march – every fear card the Republicans have in their ghoulish deck will be played as they hope to divert the public's attention from the pocketbook issues. Foreign policy remains a wild card, but Joe Biden as a VP pick minimizes McCain's advantage, at least at first glance. Essentially, the last eight weeks of the general election campaign is going to come down to whether Americans want change or the status quo.

Political Junkies Anonymous?

2008-06-03T13:17:00.000-07:00

The wind-down to the most competitive nominating contest in American history has me transfixed - and a little worried. Does anyone know of a post-primary 12-step program for political junkies? How will I replace my addiction to polls, 24-hour talking heads and my new gay-man crush on Rachel Maddow?

Personally, today the emotion is one of "delayed relief." While I'm delighted the moment has finally arrived, it's a tad bit anticlimactic. Anyone with the ability to do simple mathematics knew the outcome of this contest in late February.

I've been angry at the Clintons at many moments during this campaign, perhaps never moreso than watching Harold Ickes' hypocritical and nasty performance at the RBC meeting on Saturday. However, it has completely evaporated over the past 24 hours, replaced by a surprisingly bittersweet sympathy. I am relieved the Democrats have finally removed the "burden" of Bill and Hillary by rejecting and renouncing her coronation march. My party has proven we are America's small "D" democrats, the true defenders of the Jeffersonian ideal. No single person - or family - is more important than the party, or the country.

As I write this, MSNBC is reporting Hillary is letting it be known she would accept an invite to be the Veep. I hope Barack resists this temptation. I believe he is smart enough to understand the danger of bringing Bill's baggage to the Democratic ticket. My sincere desire is that this last dance between the two candidates to be graceful. Hillary can have a great future in the Democratic party. The Senate will be in desperate need of a powerful Democratic voice.

Now, my nerves are redirected to the general election and a climatic November moment ... anxiously anticipating a Democratic victory. Will Democrats find a way to snatch defeat despite overwhelming macrotrends pointing toward a Democratic sweep?

Maybe I don't need that 12-step program yet, after all.

With Friends Like These...

2008-05-07T07:20:00.001-07:00

Karl Rove's take on the decisive Basketball Primaries (from the RCP Blog):

Fox News's "Fox and Friends"
Karl Rove on Obama's win in North Carolina: "He had a big victory last night. ... On the other hand, he won because of the dynamics of the state. There's a state that has 35 percent African American population, probably closer to 40 percent in terms of those that voted. And his vote among [blue collar], working-class people is terrible. He basically got a quarter and a third in the two states. ... It's a very big problem for him. The industrial Midwest -- from Pennsylvania through Wisconsin -- becomes in play if he's the nominee."

Is it just me, or is Rove sounding a lot like Howard Wolfson and Lanny Davis?

I hope Republicans buy into this analysis and build their general election strategy along the same lines as Hillary's. Obama will shake his head and shrug, "this again? can't they come up with something original?"

On the other hand, Rove did acknowledge the Clinton-Obama extended tussle has been good for Obama (again, from RCP):

On the downside to Clinton staying in the race: "I'm not certain there's a downside if she remains in, and he has a tone that he had last night. ... They continue the dialogue, they continue to dominate, and he gets to be a better candidate. Part of this process is to make yourself a better candidate, and he has become a better candidate than he was at the beginning."

Chuckie Says: Hoosier State in Play???

2008-05-07T06:27:00.000-07:00

During last night's coverage of the Indiana squeaker, MSNBC's political bean counter extraordinaire Chuck Todd made a stunning statement (just prior to Barack's victory speech):

"This state could be in play in the fall. You're going to have over a million people turn out in this primary. That's even two hundred thousand people more than they expected in a high turnout election."

Be careful what you wish for, Mr. Limbaugh.

Could you imagine Election night coverage that doesn't start with the network anchors quadrennial pronouncement, "With the polls now closing in the State of Indiana, the XYZ Network calls the Hoosier State's 11 electoral votes for the Republican nominee?"

If that's the case, John McCain should consider forfeiting now.

KeithO: The Magical Moving Goalposts

2008-05-06T06:21:00.000-07:00

Olberman determines which voter counts:

Is Anyone Welcome Aboard HMS Hillary?

2008-05-05T10:34:00.001-07:00

One of TeamHillary's primary themes developed during this interminable nomination battle (alongside the concurrent Magical Moving Goalposts strategy) has been the shrinking number of people who matter.

The campaign's willingness to toss overboard key constituencies from the HMS Hillary is counterintuitive to any campaign whose only remaining argument is based on ELECTABILITY.

Despite arguing she wants every Democrat in all fifty states to have a chance to vote, Senator Clinton continues her march into oblivion by dismissing every voter (or voting bloc) who votes for "her opponent." By the way, does it annoy anyone else out there that Mrs. Clinton can't seem to remember Barack Obama's name unless he happens to be in the room? It has that "nails across the chalkboard" effect on me similar to when Republicans use their juvenile "Democrat Party" label.

TeamHillary's laundry list of Those Who Do Not Matter has grown with each passing contest.

First, she dismissed caucus state voters.

Then, it was African-Americans.

Next, we learned that small-state voters don't count, either.

Activists were next forced to walk the plank from the HMS Hillary when they proved mutinous to the Clinton Party restoration.

Red State Democrats, who began to believe they may actually play a role in a rejuvenated national party, were told they weren't welcome.

College educated, middle and upper income liberals soon joined the ranks of the "to-be-disenfranchised."

Now, after her ridiculous GOP gas tax holiday proposal, economists and policy experts who have universally criticized her for shameless, if not dangerous, political pandering, we can add policy wonks to the list of Those Who Do Not Matter.

How ironic that the renowned policy wonk herself has tossed aside the experts? More ominously, doesn't this seem frighteningly similar to the current Oval Office occupant's behavior vis-a-vis military and foreign policy?

Who is winning this war for oil?

2008-05-02T18:12:00.001-07:00

Keith O and Rachel Maddow turned to the topic of Straight Talk Express' derailment over McCain's war for oil comments tonight. As we've come to expect, Rachel proves she is one of the sharpest Talking Heads in Punditland.

Rachel M: The press corps has not been enthusiastic about following up on John McCain gaps. This one seems to me to be such a big one on such a big important issue. And, it's on tape. There's video that it has to be followed up on. So, he's either going to need a new explanation or he's actually going to have to run with it and defend this idea. I think he might actually end up defending it.
Keith O: Well, I mean, this, this raises the point that Bush and Cheney have raised recently. Oil, the price of oil, the idea of Al-Qaeda getting hold of the control of oil as a justification for staying in Iraq. And that bring you this, to McCain. Five years ago anybody who suggested there was the slightest hint of a connection, a rumor, of a hint, of an innuendo of a connection between going into Iraq and the price of gas was considered a lunatic, unpatriotic, terrorist,lefty. How and why did this suddenly change into John McCain's campaign platform?!"
Rachel M: I, I honestly think that the most likely outcome here is that McCain end up defending this, at least at the end. But then, Karl Rove has recently – and I realize he's not in the White House anymore. But, he's still influential for these guys, especially for their talking points. He has recently raised the prospect of $200 a barrel oil if we leave Iraq. So, they are explicitly willing to tie oil and gas prices to what's going on with that conflict and what our troops are doing.
The problem is, though, if you actually make the case to the American people that we are there for oil, well, we've spent a trillion dollars, we've lost four thousand Americans, we've spent five years and now we're paying $4 a gallon? We are not the beneficiaries of the War for Oil. It does not redound to the American consumer.
I think the real Mission Accomplished moment right now, that we can see in Iraq, is when the oil companies getting precleared by the Iraqi government to bid on the Iraq oil fields service contracts ended up on the front page of the business section last month instead of the front page of the international section.

Straight Talking: War for Oil

2008-05-02T17:03:00.000-07:00

McSame stumbles into a political minefield. At a forum in Denver, the Republican admitted what many opponents of the Iraq Quagmire have claimed all along:

My friends, I will have an energy policy that we will be talking about, which will eliminate our dependence on oil from the Middle East that will - that will then prevent us - that will prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women into conflict again in the Middle East.

Chris Matthews was atwitter about this new Straight Talking. He asks his panel, "How does McCain explain this one away? Just when have we gone to war over oil?"

Listen Up, Folks!

2008-05-02T07:30:00.000-07:00

Hillary was on Nightline last night discussing Super Delegate Joe Andrew's decision to switch his support from her to Obama. Predictably, she dismissed the impact of his choiced and disagreed with his assessment that the prolonged campaign is now damaging Democrats' chances in November. "Anyone who believes that this is bad for the party, I just don't think is paying attention," she said.

Today, Gallup released a poll showing over 60% of Democrats believe this nomination fight is "doing more harm than good." While three out of four Obama supporters feel this way, a full 43% of Clinton supporters agree.

Let's review.

After telling us activists don't matter, caucus states don't matter, African Americans don't matter, college educated voters don't matter and young voters don't matter, Mrs. Clinton is now lecturing us that a majority of the Democratic Party doesn't matter.

Who's the elitist candidate?

Show Me The Money - Dems Positioned to Pick Up Open Seats

2008-05-02T06:42:00.000-07:00

CQ Politics Moneyline has published another Top Ten Q1 fundraising list. They reviewed the House candidates running in open seat contests - typically the most likely seats to switch partisan control and list the top ten, as measured by Cash on Hand (CoH). The Democrats have a decided advantage at this stage of the campaign. Twenty-six Republicans are leaving the House, many choosing early retirement in an election cycle with a decidedly anti-Republican national political climate.

The race to replace Deborah Pryce in central Ohio's 15th district has both parties' nominees appearing on the list of best-funded campaigns. The eight seats are currently held by Republicans. The other (the second district in Colorado centered in Boulder) is a safe Democratic seat where three strong candidates are raising buckets of money for a primary fight that is likely to be among this cycle's most expensive race.

With five Democrats on the list, it's clear the party is positioned to pick up additional seats to pad it's new majority. Of the eight Republican-held seats listed, CQ Politics rates four as NO CLEAR FAVORITE, Democrats favored to pick up one (IL-11), and Republicans slightly favored to hold on in New Jersey and California.

The list:

1) John Adler (D, NJ-03) (James Sexton, R) [CQPolitics rating - Leans Republican] $1,000,000
2) Mary Jo Kilroy (D, OH-15) (Deborah Pryce, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $944,000
3) Doug Ose (R, CA-04) (John Doolittle, R) [Leans Republican] $845,000
4) Linda Stender (D, NJ-07) (Mike Ferguson, R), [Leans Republican] $845,000
5) Keith Fimian (R, VA-11), (Tom Davis, R), [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $742,000
6) Erik Paulsen (R, MN-03), (Jim Ramstad, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $688,000
7) Will Shafroth, (D, CO-02), (Mark Udall, D) [Safe Democrat] $682,000
8) Dan Maffei, (D, NY-25), (James Walsh, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $676,000
9) Debbie Halvorson (D, IL-11) (Jerry Weller, R) [Democrat Favored] $673,000
10) Steve Stivers (R, OH-15) (Deborah Pryce, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $600,000

AWOL: Democratic leadership

2008-04-30T09:09:00.001-07:00

Democrats have a long tradition of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. CQ Politics warns the ongoing Hillary-Barack battle could not only damage hopes of recapturing the White House, but also divide the party deeply enough to negatively affect Democrats down ballot. In fact, it may be providing the Republicans their ONLY hope in 2008:

The party and its presumed presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, are carrying the triple-headed albatross of a protracted war in Iraq, a sinking economy and the most unpopular GOP presidential incumbent in modern history. Two of the three, Iraq and President Bush, were the central elements of the soured political atmosphere that existed in November 2006, when the Democrats overturned Republican majorities on both sides of the Capitol. The economy, still in a long period of growth back then, has now gone into a downturn, if not an outright recession, and economic dissatisfaction almost always redounds against the party that holds the White House.
So the Republicans — pining against the odds for a return to power this fall, and aspiring a bit more realistically to minimize a deeper decline toward powerlessness — are hinging those hopes on letting Democrats be Democrats. Their calculation is that, if the Clinton vs. Obama contest drags on for months more, with each senator working to damage the other in search of an advantage, both will end up bloodied and bruised no matter which one is awarded the nomination. And at that point, Republicans hope, the loser's embittered constituency will do what other disaffected Democratic factions have done so often in the past and simply walk away from politics this fall — taking with them the money, the organizational muscle and, most important, the votes that could make the difference in dozens of close congressional races. (emphasis mine)

Yet, we have Democratic Super Delegates who still think it's wise to remain silent and uncommitted in the presidential race.

By sitting on the sidelines these elected officials are reinforcing the image of Democrats as spineless, poll-driven politicians. If the party is asking the American voter to entrust them with the keys to both the White House and Congress, doesn't it behoove them to show some leadership?

Clinton Triangulating May “Starve the Beast?”

2008-04-29T18:11:00.001-07:00

The historically high price of gasoline – and political pressure to DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT – has drawn a distinct difference between the Democratic challengers while blurring the difference between Hillary Clinton and John McCain.

This afternoon MSNBC played a couple of dueling sound bites:

Clinton is shown on the campaign trail trumpeting a populist message. "At the heart of my approach is a simple belief. Middle class families are paying too much and oil companies aren't paying their fair share to help us solve the problems at the pump."

Barack responds, "We're arguing over a gimmick to save you half a tank of gas over the course of the entire summer so that everyone in Washington can pat themselves on the back and say that they did something. Well, let me tell you something: This isn't an idea designed to get you through the summer. It's an idea designed to get them to an election." (emphasis mine)

Once again, we've got someone speaking the truth – even though it isn't a political winner in the short-term. His opponent, on the other hand, has chosen one of the golden oldies of presidential politics, "the Populist Pander." In doing so, Hillary has embraced an ill-advised, Republican-inspired proposal and sacrificed bedrock Democratic ideals all for the sake of Hoosier and Tar Heel votes.

Never mind that her plan echoes much of McCain's "gas tax holiday." It may never come to fruition because it requires the unlikely passage of a new tax on oil company windfall profits (try getting that through the 60 seat cloture vote, Hils). Also ignore the fact it represents a complete reversal of the fundamental New Deal philosophy that public works spending jumpstarts a sputtering economy (the plan could put hundreds of thousands of highway workers out of work). None of that is Hillary's cardinal sin.

Well then, what is?

In her analysis of Clinton's proposal, Republican pollster Kellyann Conway provides the answer

"In fact, some her words today sounded exactly like John McCain's gas tax holiday proposal from just a couple of weeks ago. So, I think right now they're playing to two different audiences. Perhaps Senator Clinton is feeling quite bold given all of her new poll numbers and the fact that this has become a tightened race. But I think what is really key in the whole discussion about a tax gas holiday is this: that, instead of just talking about the oil companies, instead of just talking about the price of gas, people will become that much more aware across this country that the federal government benefits tremendously from taxes on gasoline. And that's meant to go to repair our roads and our bridges. And everybody knows that our bridge and road repair are, they are in disrepair. So, I think it's important that we starve the beast – the federal, state and local governments – who rely upon taxes at the pump while people are trying to fill up the tank just to get around to their jobs and schools."

Way, to go, Hills. You've provided the Republican spinmeisters an opportunity to promote neoconservative Grover Norquist's governing philosophy goal to "shrink government to a size you can drown in the bathtub." No wonder the Republicans are so delighted to see your candidacy continue.

Triangulation Triumphant? Is that what a Clinton restoration will mean?

But, thankfully, we have a candidate who refuses to pander. Listen to him, folks:

UPDATE: The Wall Street Journal discusses how the Clinton/McCain "holiday" would actually raise prices by increasing demand. It's time we elected politicians who talk honestly about the difficult times ahead.

Maddow to Talking Heads: Start Making Sense

2008-04-29T17:28:00.001-07:00

Are you frustrated by the news media's inability to focus on real issues in the presidential campaign? Does their juvenile fascination with the Jeremiah Wright sideshow enrage you?

Well, Rachel Maddow is fed up, too. And, she's got a seat at the pundit's Round Table. Tonight, she was on The Race holding the punditocracy accountable:

"I find it incredible that we're all sitting here going, 'Why won't the Jeremiah Wright controversy go away.' Well, you know what? Today, John McCain unveiled his healthcare plan. We got three different statements, three different policies from the candidates on gas prices. We got the President of the United States making a huge economic speech and speaking to reporters for forty minutes. We've got four marines, or, four US soldiers who were announced to have been killed in Iraq yesterday. What else has to happen in the news to push Jeremiah Wright out of the headlines? We've been doing it for six straight headlines on every politics show in the business!"

Way to go, Rachel!

McCain's Blurry Vision

2008-04-28T10:58:00.000-07:00

This isn't about whether or not the septegenarian needs bifocals (although how would we know since he hasn't fully released his medical records?) Rather, we've got some striking news from Gallup.

Only one third (33%) of Americans believe John McCain has a clear plan to solve America's problems. That's a nine point drop since mid-March. Yup, it seems that despite his month-long free pass to define himself to the American voter as the Democrats continue their deathmatch nomination battle, McCain has presented himself and Americans simply aren't impressed.

But, the good news for Democrats (particularly Hillary Clinton) doesn't stop there. Gallup measured eight "character" ratings for the three leading presidential candidates. McCain's image among Americans slipped in seven. While Obama's numbers also softened, it was McCain who experienced the steepest decline. Considering the ongoing Democratic intramural fighting, it is surprising Hillary Clinton saw her image actually increase in response to most questions. There is a huge red flag for her, however. More than 6 out of ten don't view Clinton as trustworthy.

Overall, Obama has a significant lead (4 points or larger) over his rivals on three questions. McCain leads on two while Clinton, despite her improving numbers does not lead both her rivals on any question.

Comparing the two Democratic rivals, Obama holds leads over Clinton on four questions. The most striking is the "trust gap" of 23 points. Clinton has cut into Obama's lead on empathy (cares about people like you) and pride (proud to have as president). She holds on three questions, (has a plan, leadership and management) manifestation of the "experience" mantle she has worked to claim throughout the nomination battle.

In head-to-head matchups, McCain now trails both Democrats on three questions. He trails Obama on two more (values and pride). Clinton's "trust gap" with McCain is even larger (28 points). Conversely, McCain trails Clinton as the problem solver in the race by double digits (15) and is viewed as being unaware of the average American's problems (10 points).

	Clinton	McCain	Obama
Cares about the needs of people like you.	57 (+3)	52 (-2)	62 (-4)
Is a strong and decisive leader.	62 (+1)	66 (-3)	55 (-1)
Is honest and trustworthy.	37 (-7)	65 (-2)	60 (-3)
Shares your values.	46 (+1)	47 (+1)	51 (NC)
Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems.	47 (-2)	33 (-9)	40 (-1)
Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives.	60 (+2)	50 (-5)	63 (-4)
Is someone you would be proud to have as president.	48 (+1)	51 (-4)	55 (-2)
Can manage the govt effectively.	54 (+3)	55 (-5)	48 (NC)
MoE = +/- 3%.

Jeremiah Was a Bullfrog...He Was a Good Friend of Mine

2008-04-28T07:05:00.000-07:00

Uhm, maybe not?

I'm of the opinion - and it may prove to be naive and foolish - that Rev. Wright's remergence in the public arena this weekend will eventually help Barack Obama's candidacy. I realize I'm swimming against the stream of conventional wisdom this Monday morning. Right now, MSNBC has the tag line: "CAMPAIGN ALERT: Rev. Wright Hurting Obama Campaign and Tamryn Hall opened this hour's coverage describing him as "the thorn in Obama's side."

So, with the media providing the "Wright is Wrong for Obama" refrain, why do I think this PR campaign has an upside?

Let's acknowledge the following:

1) The Wright controversy has been created by selective, inflammatory soundbites. The snapshots are unquestionably damaging to Obama's candidacy. But we are missing both the context of the remarks and the complexity of the man.
2) The controversy isn't going to disappear. If Democrats - or the Obama campaign - believed Rev. Wright was going to fade into the rearview mirror, that's wishful thinking. Rest assured: It ain't going to happen, because the Republicans won't let it. The Right Wing machine is in high gear. We've already been promised "Wright All the Time" in a general election.

If Wright had chosen to retreat into silence, it would have allowed the Republican smear machine to define him. Unlike recent Democratic candidates, Wright, a proud and accomplished man, chose to not back down. He decided to define and explain the African American church and inform the public about a lifetime devoted to social justice and compassion. He is refusing to allow his life story to be reduced to a soundbite.

How did he do? From my perspective, he scored some points during the speech. He did a great job of making the audience laugh, squirm and THINK more than a soundbite could ever do.
In the Q&A, he fumbled a bit, providing a handful of soundbites to the GOP attack ad library, probably causing heartburn for the Obama campaign.

What emerges from this burst of publicity? Wright becomes a more complete figure in the public mind. He forces people to see beyond the media's caricature. In the process, he raised some serious questions about the role of religion, educated others about black liberation theology and challenged us to acknowledge the complexity of race relations in 21st century America.

Additionally, by becoming a headline today, he has diffused the power of his comments in the long run. By the general election, voters are likely to say, "oh, yeah, we've heard all this before." It's similar to the crazy and indefensible comments that regularly come out of the Right Wing preachers' (think Falwell, Hagee & Robertson) mouths. We may be enraged when they claim divine retribution in hurricanes and terrorist attacks, but eventually we consider the source and move on.

Lastly, Wright may have provided Obama the additional cover he needed to distance himself from his erstwhile preacher. The reverend has chosen to take more flak, transfering much of the bile and outrage from Obama to himself. While many in the media are declaring these remarks as "Awful for Obama" and predicting collateral damage to his candidacy, they could be dead wrong. Obama is not the "Angry Black Man" Wright's caricature depicts.

Here is an opportunity to reinforce Obama's image as the "post-partisan and post-racial" candidate. He can say - once again - "I understand and feel the reverend's pain, but I do not share his anger."

MSNBC: Falls for One of the "Oldest Tricks in Politics"

2008-04-24T07:57:00.000-07:00

This story has been in the "hourly loop" playing during MSNBC's "The Place for Politics" daytime coverage. There's a new anti-Obama ad (in addition to the abysmal NC State GOP one "denounced" by McCain yesterday) being peddled by the creator of the infamous 1988 Willie Horton ad. I say "peddled" because there has been no "buy."

Oh, but no worries. MSNBC (and I'm sure the other 24-7 cable outlets) have decided to hawk what these fearmongers are shelling out for free.

The ad shows scenes from a desolate urban streetscape with tag lines saying "Tamika McFadden-Harris: Murdered shielding her daughter. Mike Boyd: Beaten with bricks in gang attacks." These are shown on the TeeVee screen as Contessa Brewer dutifully reads from the teleprompter:
A conservative third party group led by infamous ad man Floyd Brown claims Senator Obama is weak on street gangs and will be just as easy with terrorists. Well, here's the catch: Brown does not have a single ad buy in any TV market. Instead of paying for airtime, he just announces this in a press release for outlets like YouTube to pick up."
Contessa introduces the segment's talking heads (Craig Gordon from Newsday and Jonathan Allen from CQPolitics.com) and without even a hint of self-awareness, Contessa pivots to Gordon and asks:

"OK, so, Craig, is this a new way to get your ad covered without buying any time?

Craig (laughing) says, "Uh, it's actually one of the oldest tricks in politics where you, uh, even, even respectable campaigns will do this sometimes. Where they will announce an ad. They'll show the reporters. They'll be very vague about how much money they're going to spend putting it on the air. We all write about it. You put it on your TV networks and they've - voila! they've got their ad out there.
So, it's actually kind of an old trick that folks use sometime. Obviously, it's a pretty controversial topic for an ad. And we're talking about it here today so he's probably accomplished what he hoped to accomplish."

Come on, MSNBC. You don't even have to have a long memory to remember when Huckabee pulled this stunt. One of the reasons these "tricks" work is because the media enables and promotes them.

A Blue Wave Building

2008-04-24T06:36:00.000-07:00

Much has been made about the surge in democratic registration across the country. As the Pennsylvania primary approached, the MSM reported about the long-time Republican bastions of Montgomery and Bucks Counties outside Philadelphia had flipped - becoming majority Democratic jurisdictions. This Democratic surge has been widely viewed by politicos as one of the positive side-effects of the interminable Democratic nomination fight, as party-building has preceded voting in each successive primary contest.

We've now got news that the trend continues, post-primary, in a critical state. The California Majority Report has reviewed the voter registration trends in California since the Golden State voted on SuperTuesday and Democrats continue to widen the gap between the two parties across the state:

This boost in Democratic registration isn't simply a temporary lift propelled by interest in the February presidential primary. In every Assembly district in the state since the cutoff for registration for the February primary, Democratic registration has risen while Republican registration has declined. Overall, Democratic registration has inched up by .6 percent statewide. Meanwhile GOP numbers continue their free-fall, declining by .4 percent, in the period between January 22nd and April 4th.

OH-18: No Sophomore Slump in Ohio

2008-04-24T06:05:00.000-07:00

After the historic mid-term elections, the Republicans claimed they lost many of their seats not because of a bankrupt brand, failed policies or a widespread rejection by voters across the nation. Instead, they said their majority was lost because of a series of individual scandals. The "handful" of scalliwags, the thinking went, lost "safe" GOP districts: DeLay, Foley, Pombo and the litany of Abramoff-tinged congresscritters. They figured these districts would be easily recaptured in 2008, a presidential year when these districts would return to their red roots.

Well, it looks like one of those target districts, Zack Space's 18th District in Ohio, may be firming up for the Democrats. Due Space's strong fundraising and the Republican nominee's lack of resources, CQ Politics has changed it's rating in the race from "Leans Dem" to "Dem Favored." They write:

The typically strong conservative leanings of 18th District voters — President Bush took 57 percent of the vote there when he ran for re-election in 2004 — had Space perched precariously near the top of the GOP’s target list when this election cycle began.
But the Republicans still are struggling to recover from the damage done by the downfall of once-popular Republican Rep. Bob Ney, who dropped his bid for a seventh House term well into the 2006 campaign and then pled guilty to federal corruption charges related to his ties to convicted influencing-peddling lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Furthermore, the Republican nominated in the March 4 primary to challenge Space — Fred Dailey, a former state agriculture director — has a relatively low political profile, and a dangerously low amount of money in his campaign treasury. Updated campaign finance reports that both candidates recently filed with the Federal Election Commission show Dailey had just $36,000 left in his campaign account when April began, compared to the nearly $1 million in cash on hand reported by Space.

So, while Democratic turmoil continues at the presidential level, the downballot races continue to move toward building a stronger majority.

MS-01: Dem Childers In May Run-Off

2008-04-22T19:28:00.000-07:00

While most eyes have been diverted this evening to the Keystone State Presidential Battle, Democrats came within a whisker-thin margin of picking up a deeply red district in the Deep South.

Travis Childers received 49% of the vote in the six candidate race to replace newly-appointed Senator Roger Wicker in MS-01. Coming less than 1,000 votes needed to reach the 5% threshold, Childers will now face a May 13 run-off with second-place finisher Greg Davis to finish out the term. Both will face each other again as the nominees for the same seat in November.

It will be much harder for Childers to turn the seat blue in November when turnoe to put surges nationwide for the presidential contest. But the fact he is a viable candidate in a conservative district provides another example of the Democrats' expanding playing field in the current political atmosphere.

The NRCC, already low on funds, has a tough decision to make. Do they expend their limited resources in defending this vulnerable seat (along with Louisiana 06)? Or do they husband their resources, and risk letting another seat (or two) slip from their control further demoralizing donors and members?

Let's hope the DCCC decides their "all in" in both races.

Who's Got the Teflon Armor?

2008-04-22T14:35:00.000-07:00

The juxtaposition of two Gallup polls today provides an interesting snapshot of the American electorate in the midst of one of the most unpredictable presidential contests.

They contain promising news regarding the "macroclimate" for Democrats in the about-to-begin general election campaign but some troubling signals regarding presumptive GOP nominee John McCain's early strength.

The first shows Bush hitting historic lows. He's at 28% approval - the worst rating in the 70-year history of Gallup's presidential polling. Makes me wonder what McCain's strategists are thinking by continuing to embrace a failed presidency. What's the point of "shoring up the base" when they're abandoning their standard-bearer in record numbers? Or, can McCain escape (and perhaps reverse) the downward spiral of the Republican brand?

The second poll also contains good news for Barack Obama. It hints that Obama may indeed be the 21st century's first teflon candidate. Despite the media's pitbull tenacity about the "bitterly clinging" comments, today's poll shows only 26% of voters view Obama as "looking down on them." More (32%) view Hillary Clinton as the elitist in the nomination contest.

But before Democrats get too overconfident, there's another candidate for the Teflon Candidate. Fewer voters (only 22%) view McCain as less out of touch:

Is this more evidence the Democratic infighting is hurting Clinton and Obama while elevating McCain? It's also an early and worrisome signal that McCain may not have the Bush legacy as an albatross around his neck.

It's time for Democrats to end the intramural death match and move on to target McCain.

This is just a start from the DNC:

MoveOn: Videos for Obama...

2008-04-22T06:15:00.000-07:00

Proving once again how the Internet has transformed politics, thousands of Americans responded to MoveOn's request to make campaign videos for the Obama campaign.

Campaign 2008 has shown the grassroots can reject the punditocracy's "inside the beltway" conventional wisdom. Let's take the next step and show the high-priced PR and political message shapers how real Americans want to run a campaign.

YOU can vote to select the one you want to have put on the TeeVee by going HERE.

Here is one of my favorites.

E Pluribus Unum: Out of Many, One.

The Sunday Muse

2008-04-20T07:57:00.000-07:00

Random Green thoughts...for Earth Week 2008.

At BushCo, the EPA's Acronym Stands for Everybody Pollutes Anyway! The National Journal reports the reign of current administrator Stephen Johnson may mark a historic low in the efficacy of the nation's pollution police. For those that remember James Watt and Anne Gorsuch Burford during the Reagan years, that's a pretty low bar to duck under. But is anyone really shocked that a BushCo agency is ignoring scientific advice, promoting incompetent sycophants, rolling back regulations, slashing agency funds and kowtowing to business interests? Anyone?

How Green is Your Governor? California's Governator and governors from 17 other states have signed an agreement urging the next president quickly adopt aggressive limits on greenhouse grasses. Breaking with his party's "head in the sand" environmental policies, Schwarzenegger proclaimed, "Washington is asleep at the wheel, and we can't wait for them." Of the eighteen states, only three (CA, CT and FL) are led by Republican governors.

Big Brother Isn't Watching Big Business: The Treasury Department is asking hedge fund managers to voluntarily police themselves and provide greater transparency. Besides the fact only a handful of the 800 registered fund managers have signed on to the idea, I ask, "Can anyone remember the last time this 'less regulation is better' BushCo approach actually worked? Does anyone (beyond McCain, that is) believe the subprime crisis was due to too much regulation? Or unsafe imports from China occured because of too much government oversight?

BushCo's "Transparency" Becomes a Continental Affliction: BushCo is hosting the leaders of Canada, Mexico in New Orleans to meet with corporate execs of major multinationals (think Chevron, Wal-Mart) to discuss a Security and Prosperity Partnership with our continental neighbors. What are they discussing? In the grand tradition of the Cheney Energy Task Force, we really don't know:

What’s on the table? Not much is public, but we do know that the executive powers of the three countries are hammering out regulatory changes that they claim do not require legislative approval. And given who’s in the room, it’s a safe bet that these changes will favor narrow corporate interests over the public good.

Don't worry. I'm sure the Democratic Congress is all over this. They'll call hearings, discover the American public is getting hosed by corporate greed and declare, "See? We did something? Without us in the majority you would've never known how you were being screwed! At least now you know!"

Straight Economic Talk About John McCain. Bloomberg debunks McCain's claim to fiscal responsibility. Sustained tax cuts and a balanced budget are impossible. At least he can say, "I told you I don't know much about the economy."

Show Me The Money - Q1's Biggest RainMakers

2008-04-18T10:26:00.000-07:00

CQ Politics' Moneyline has a list of the top ten gainers in Cash on Hand in the just reported first quarter.

Competitive Challengers (noted on the list with an asterisk): Three Democratic challengers filing their first reports (Raul Martinez, Gerry Connolly and Tom Manion) make the list as does challenger John Adler, who reports over $1 million in his race to win the open seat in NJ-03. The one Republican challenger on the list (Northup) is running to regain the seat she lost in '06, so her fundraising ability isn't a huge surprise.

Fighting Freshmen (in italics): Three Democratic incumbents on the list are running their first reelection campaign, typically when a House member is found most vulnerable. All three are in swing districts in the northeast. By winning these races, Dems can reasonably expect to solidify their dominance in the region. Notably, Murphy's expected opponent in November (Tom Manion) also appears on the list.

Clash of the Titans: Two districts (FL-21 and PA-08) have two candidates in the top ten. In both cases the incumbents maintain a large cash advantage.

1) Raul Martinez*, (D FL-21) $593,000 CoH -- $593,000+
2) Rep. Joe Sestak, (D PA-07) $2.26 million CoH -- $549,000+
3) Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, (R FL-21) $1.45 million CoH -- $547,000+
4) Rep. Patrick J. Murphy, (D PA-08) $1.66 million CoH -- $487,000+
5) Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , (R IL-10) $2.25 million CoH -- $462,000+
6) Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, (D NY-20) $2.47 million CoH -- $433,000+
7) Gerry Connolly*, (D VA-11) $422,000 CoH -- $422,000+
8) Anne M. Northup*, (R KY-03) $428,000 CoH -- $422,000+
9) Tom Manion*, (R PA-08) $417,000 CoH --$417,000+
10) John H. Adler*, (D NJ-03) $1 million CoH -- $416,000+

McSame As It Ever Was

2008-04-18T07:17:00.000-07:00

As if you needed any more evidence that a McCain Administration would amount to four more years of failed conservative policy, Progressive Media USA provides more:

A Blue Wave Coming: IL-08

2008-04-18T06:35:00.001-07:00

The Rothenberg Political Report is changing the rating in Melissa Bean's race to defend her competitive congressional seat in Illinois-08 from "Leans Dem" to "Dem Favored." Her opponent, Steve Greenberg's campaign manager left the campaign this week to join a lobbying firm. This departure comes in the wake of the filing of dismal fundraising numbers for the Republican challenger:

...Goodman’s exit leaves more questions than answers for Greenberg. The wealthy businessman was expected to throw a scare into Cong. Melissa Bean (D) in Illinois’ 8th District. But he showed only $5,035 in the bank on March 31, and his ability and willingness to self-finance the race is unclear. Greenberg has put in $79,000 of his own money thus far.

Meanwhile, Bean is sitting on $1.3 million in campaign cash and will likely benefit from increased Democratic excitement that likely presidential nominee Barack Obama will generate at the top of the ticket.

Gallup: Dems Leading in Battleground States

2008-04-17T09:20:00.000-07:00

This is big, especially considering the fretting the punditocracy (and the blogosphere) is doing about how this interminable Democratic nomination battle could be hurting our general election chances. According to Gallup's April polling, both Democrats are winning the purple states (NH, PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, FL, CO, NV, NM and OR) where the margin separating Kerry & Bush in 2004 was less than 6 points. Obama and Clinton both beat McCain in these critical battleground states by a 47-43 margin.

OBAMA More Competitive in Red States: It's in the Red States where Obama outperforms Clinton against McCain. Obama trails McCain by eight points (49-41) in these states while Clinton trails by ten (51-41). Gallup doesn't break out these numbers by state, but it seems Obama may be able to make a state or two competitive and force the Republican candidate to play defense on his home turf more than Clinton.

In Blue States, Obama also outpaces Clinton. Obama beats McCain by thirteen (52-39) while Clinton only leads by nine (50-41). This belies the New York Senators claim that she has demonstrated she can win the "Big Democratic" states that are critical to a Democrat's chances in November. Obama is going to be able to win these more handily than Clinton, if these numbers are to be believed.

Obama's Numbers:

Clinton's Numbers:

The pollsters at Gallup include this analysis:

It's likely that the 2008 election will be fought in the battleground states, just as in prior elections. Gallup's election polling to date suggests that the presidential election could be very close, because neither McCain nor his Democratic rivals have maintained much of a lead in recent weeks.
The analysis of competitive states adds insight into how the candidates are doing beyond the overall vote figures. A candidate must do reasonably well in those states to have a chance at winning. For example, McCain could open up a significant lead in the national vote based on a very strong performance in the red states, but that would not mean he was better positioned to win than if he were not doing as well in the red states but doing better in the more competitive states.
As of now, Obama and Clinton have an advantage over McCain among voters in the competitive states. Given that more states fall into the Republican column than into the Democratic column, the Democratic nominee probably needs to maintain that advantage in order to prevail in enough purple states to gain the electoral vote advantage in November.

Hey, Europe, Can You Spare a G.I.?

2008-04-17T08:15:00.000-07:00

With renewed violence in Iraqi cities claiming more lives, it appears our military is scrambling to find 7,000 soldiers to combat a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan.

Is our military stretched that thin? For quite some time our military leaders have been warning the Bush/Cheney/McCain warhawks that they are simply asking too much from our men and women in uniform. Now, it looks like we're forced beg our allies for reinforcements but:

A majority of America's NATO allies continue to balk at U.S. requests to send thousands more of their troops to Afghanistan. At the same time, the renewed violence in Iraq and the White House decision to suspend further American troop withdrawals from Iraq this summer will make it harder for the Pentagon to send more American forces to Afghanistan next year as President Bush has promised.
"I'm deeply concerned," Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last Thursday. "In this economy of force operation, we do what we can. Requirements exist that we simply cannot fill and won't likely be able to fill until conditions improve in Iraq."

If our country is facing an endless, multiple front war isn't it irresponsible to NOT have a draft? Shouldn't this question at least be asked of the candidates running for president (and Congress)?

Condoned, Coordinated and Choreographed by Condi

2008-04-16T12:42:00.000-07:00

"Let me be, let me try to be clear. The United States doesn't and can't condone torture." - Condoleeza Rice

From ABC:

"In dozens of top-secret talks and meetings in the White House, the most senior Bush administration officials discussed and approved specific details of how high-value al Qaeda suspects would be interrogated by the Central Intelligence Agency, sources tell ABC News...

The meetings were chaired by then-National Security Advisor Rice. The discussions about the enhanced interrogation techniques were so detailed, sources said, the interrogations were almost choreographed."

Rice again: "Torture and conspiracy to commit torture are crimes under US Law wherever they may occur in the world."

This is what she's condoned, coordinated and choreographed.

Visit CondiMustGo to sign the petition.

Blue Jersey: Another Pickup Opportunity?

2008-04-16T11:56:00.000-07:00

Another day, another ratings change (toward the Dems) by the political prognosticators over at CQ Politics. New Jersey's Fifth District is now listed as "Republican Favored" (a shift from "SAFE Republican) due to Democratic candidate Dan Shulman's impressive fundraising totals.

The campaign of Democratic rabbi and psychologist Dennis Shulman for New Jersey’s 5th District is beginning to gain steam, capturing local and national support as well as attention as he seeks to become the first blind member of Congress in generations.

In his bid to unseat three-term Republican Rep. Scott Garrett , Shulman reported more than $300,000 raised through March 31, including donations from Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer ’s political action committee, Washington state Rep. Brian Baird ’s campaign committee, and members of the psychology and religious communities. Shulman also invested $52,000 in personal funds into his campaign. He reported $246,000 remaining after expenses.

UPDATE: CQ also changed the rating in a Connecticut "swing" district (CT-02). Freshman Dem Joe Courtney's race has moved from Leans Dem to Dem Favored. The GOP's retreat from New England continues unchallenged.

I Got Another HillGram from Ann Today

2008-04-16T08:38:00.000-07:00

Early in this presidential campaign I signed up for email updates from each of the Democratic presidential campaigns, (and even a couple of the Republicans) because I was curious as to how each would utilize the Internet as a communication tool. From the beginning, I've been impressed by Obama, as I was with Edwards. Hillary, however, has been a different story.

For some reason, the Clinton campaign thinks I'm a female. For months now, I've been receiving regular emails from senior advisor Ann Lewis under the "Women for Hillary" banner. Not sure how or why the campaign performed this gender reassignment, but it has provided an interesting insight into how TeamHillary has used her gender to cling to the one constituency - white women - that has stuck by her throughout this campaign season. At times, Ann's emails have been amusing. Others, the reliance on identity politics has been frustrating.

Today's email was irritating. It relies on one of the tried and true strategies needed for identity politics to succeed - claiming victimhood and bonding around the shared injustice as a group. TeamHillary takes a very real issue - the wage gap between men and women - and embraces it has her cause. Quite ironic when she and Bill are sitting on a pile of 109 million greenbacks.

I'm annoyed when Ann urges me to let all the women I know what's at stake in this election, implying Hillary is the only candidate concerned about addressing the wage gap. Do they seriously think I (and the women I know) will buy their argument that a Clinton restoration is the only hope for women?

From Ann:

Dear Friend,

Today, we are launching the “Make Change Count” campaign to highlight the wage gap that persists for women across the country. This year, Equal Pay Day -- the day on which women's wages catch up to men's wages for the prior year -- falls on April 22.

Check out YOUR wage gap by using our calculator at: ww.hillaryclinton.com/women!
Although it has been more than 40 years since the Equal Pay Act became law,
full-time working women make just 77 cents for every dollar a man makes. And
it's even worse for women of color.

Tell your friends about the Wage Gap calculator and Hillary's work by sending them an email – sample text here!

Hillary has long been a champion for equal pay for women. Her legislation, the Paycheck Fairness Act, would help close the wage gap for women across the country, ultimately putting more money in the pockets of America's families.

Hillary has also worked in the Senate not only to ensure women earn the same amount as men for equal work but also to expand the earned income tax credit,
provide health care for children, raise the minimum wage, and stand up for
female-owned small businesses.
Write a letter to the editor about Hillary's commitment to closing the wage gap – sample text here!
As president, Hillary would bring to the White House a long record of fighting for women and children -- and she will lead a government dedicated to improving the lives for all our families.
Please share this important tool with the women you know and let them know what is at stake in this election.

Sincerely,
Ann

Is TeamHillary really this tone-deaf?

The campaign still doesn't understand the dynamics of the American Electorate, Version 2008. After years of being "sliced and diced" into competing interest groups (thanks Mark Penn & Karl Rove), people want to come together to solve our common problems. The voters are responding to a positive message that strives to remind us there is more that unites us than divides us.

Despite this, Hillary continues campaigning from her outdated playbook.

What Would YOU Do With Three TRILLION Dollars?

2008-04-14T11:24:00.001-07:00

Brave New Films has a new game to play. Just in time for tax day, Robert Greenwald observes, "George B in Washington started an illegal war that resulted in 151,000 dead Iraqi civilians...Donald R in Arlington, VA, destabilized an entire region and displaced four million innocent people. What will you do with three trillion dollars. Go to http://www.threetrillion.org/ and spend, spend, spend "

When Bitter Becomes Sweet

2008-04-13T22:32:00.000-07:00

This guy is brilliant. Obama's actually laughing at Hillary Clinton's "bitter" attacks.

The image of Hillary spending her Sunday afternoons out in duckblind has to be one of the silliest American political images since Dukakis driving that tank.

The Sunday Muse

2008-04-13T05:24:00.000-07:00

Random thoughts on a Sunday morning in April...

An Inconvenient Truth: The Mother Jones has an expose on former Secret Service agents spying on Greenpeace and other environmental groups - including perusing donor lists, financial records and staff Social Security numbers. Another example of the Bush/Cheney anti-green and pro-oil agenda? Nope. This was going on during Bill Clinton's presidency.

Green Citizen of the Year Award: Royal Dutch Shell tells the EU - take your planet and shove it.

Deliver Us From Evil: When President Bush starts a sentence with, "Well, we started to connect the dots in order to protect the American people..." you just know the result can't be good.

Show Us the Money: The Center for Reponsive Politics reports a record-breaking year for K Street lobbying.

The (Greek) Gods Must Be Crazy: Nathan Gonzalez over at the Rothenberg Political Report ponders how political campaigns will compete with (and be shaped by) the Beijing Olympics in a 24/7 news environment this August.

Will She Stand By Her Man? One of the signature accomplishments of the Clinton presidency - NAFTA - is widely blamed for job losses in midwestern Rust Belt cities. This sentiment caused Hillary Clinton to distance herself from her earlier support as the Democratic nomination battle wound it's way through Wisconsin, Ohio and now Pennsylvania. Friday's New York Times observes the economic downturn could cause voters to re-examine 1996's welfare reform creating another awkward situation for candidate Clinton.

Pat & Hillary, Sitting in A Tree, KAY, EYE, ESS, ESS, EYE, AND GEE

2008-04-12T07:17:00.000-07:00

I'm spewing my no foam, low fat latte across the computer screen this morning.

Pundits are swarming like hungry sharks, accusing Barack of elitist condescension toward small town America. I'm watching conservative populist Pat Buchanan on MSNBC trumpeting the same -crap- talking points Hillary Clinton is using in her newly revised stump speech. Does anyone in Hillaryland see ANYTHING WRONG WITH A DEMOCRATIC POLITICIAN cozying up to Pitchfork Pat, for chrissakes???

Small town America has suffered for decades with few answers coming from our leaders in Washington. The Free Trade agreements pushed by the Clinton and Bush Administrations (Hillary may hear "Ka-Ching," but small-town Americans hear Perot's infamous "sucking sound") have accelerated the Heartland's economic decline.

As The Boss sings, "these jobs are going, boys and they ain't coming back..."

This latest media feeding frenzy over our presidential contest is diminishing BOTH Democratic candidates and threatens to result in a fratricidal outcome. The "chum" this weekend (full quote included, bolded section is the sound-bite focused on by Clinton, McCain and the "media"):

You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Senator Obama's use of the word "bitter" may have been a miscue. But for Clinton to seize upon a word and divert attention from the real debate about lost jobs, economic dislocation and healthcare only aids McCain's general election chances.

It's clear Clinton and McCain don't understand the realities of 2008: When over 80% of respondents say they believe this country is "ON THE WRONG TRACK" most Americans are bitter about what has happened to this country.

And, I've got news for you: it's not just about lost jobs.

It's about shredding the Constitution. It's about warrantless wiretaps and granting the telecoms retroactive immunity. It's about an ill-advised war with no end in sight. It's about $4.00/gallon gasoline when oil companies make record profits. It's rampant foreclosures and a bailout of Wall Street while Main Street continues to suffer.

This is why Americans - in small towns and big cities - are angry.

I shudder to think what may happen to this nation if you take away the one thing we have left:

HOPE.

Baracky vs. Apollo Clinton

2008-04-12T07:12:00.000-07:00

The democratic nomination battle in a three-minute short, bobbleheads and all:

The Incredible, Shrinking Ex-President

2008-04-11T17:21:00.000-07:00

In the closing months of his presidency, the subject of Bill Clinton's "Legacy" and the paramount concern he supposedly placed on how history would regard him was a common media talking point.

He had survived a scathing partisan battle and left the White House with a higher approval rating than he had at the start of his second term. Despite an all-encompassing impeachment and a few minor mini-scandals (last minute pardons of a wealthy fugitive and the "plundering" of the White House come to mind), the Clinton brand was strong and durable enough to propel his wife to victory in the race for RFK's New York Senate seat and positioned the president as a powerful and influential force on the world stage.

The Clinton Brand isn't what it once was.

At the end of March 2008, a majority of Americans viewed the former president unfavorably. His wife's presidential campaign has brought out the worst in the former president. As her chief surrogate (and attack dog) he has left many wondering, "What happened to the sharpest political mind the Democratic party has seen in a generation?" Was it all an illusion built by a sophisticated political marketing machine?

Today, Ambinder pronounces:

"The debate about his political legacy is effectively over, and no one but a handful of prominent Democrats will argue that his presidency was salutary for the Democratic party."

On David Gregory's new MSNBC Show, the panelists discussed (video below) the fallout from Bill's latest misstep - resurrecting the Tuzla story and blaming the media's unfair treatment for his wife's floundering campaign. But, Chuck Todd disagrees and points the finger right back at Bill:

"Every time you see him. (Don't) forget - elections are never about the past. They're always about the future. And every time you see him, you never think about the future. And I think that's the fundamental sort of message problem that the Clinton campaign has because Obama seems like the future...and Bill Clinton's - just - aura says, "The Past."
- snip -
"That's been the issue that the Clinton campaign hasn't really grasped that well. It's this. How much credibility damage that Bill Clinton did to the Clinton Brand over that long period of time between 1998 and the end of his presidency."

Todd (and Newt's former toady, Tony Blankley) believe Clinton may not have survived if there had been a 24/7 news cycle in 1992. The YouTube Age has rewritten political campaigning. Anything and everything can come back to haunt you. Just ask George Allen.

But, I'm still wondering, "Was he ever the sharp political practioner of the Clintonista iconographers?"

And the Buck Stops...

2008-04-11T12:57:00.000-07:00

The FAA's recent rediscovery of it's regulatory role has caused endless headaches for the nation's air travelers this week. But I have to say that this is refreshing. Wonder if anyone named Bush or Cheney may have been paying attention?

PA Republicans: Amnesty for Party Deserters

2008-04-10T10:08:00.000-07:00

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review - Richard Mellon Scaife's scandal-mongering "newspaper" reports the PA Republican Party is launching an aggressive "Come Back to the Party" campaign to woo wayward Republicans. Gotta love the fact the state party is forced to spend its limited resources on rebuilding in a formerly competitive presidential swing state.

Keystone State Dems are unconcerned about the GOP re-recruitment effort. They're confident the nearly one million voter advantage (they've added over 300K voters since last fall, according to the PTR article) they now hold over Republicans makes Pennsylvania a deep blue state in November's elections.