Democrats Heading Toward a Denver Disaster?

I am unsure as to whether I believe the rapidly forming conventional wisdom that a brokered convention is a disaster for Democrats in November.

I keep hearing the "the divided party typically loses in November" mantra repeated all morning. I'm not sure this is true in a year where the pundits have been wrong AGAIN and AGAIN.

Granted, the quick end to the chaotic Republican race seems to provide the GOP a step up in the general election campaign, but this assumes McCain can achieve two goals. Can he unify a divided party and energize the conservative grassroots base to do the hard campaign work necessary to win in November? Can he make this move without alienating the moderate independents who are the base of his support?

Beyond McCain's challenges, the muddled Democratic nomination battle may also have unacknowledged pluses for eventual Democratic nominee.

• No Clear Target: First off, the longer we go without a nominee, the less damage the GOP smear machine can do. They can only work to brand "tax and spend liberals" and "Surrender to terror" broadbased memes - which they're going to do anyway. On the other hand, both Obama and Clinton can now do a semi-pivot toward the general election - attacking the McCain/Bush foreign and domestic policy failures.

This is already underway on the campaign trail. It behooves progressives to successfully link McCain to Bush and the neoconservative ideology. By doing this, it will force McCain to repudiate and distance himself from Bush. This makes McCain's challenge to shore up conservative support much more difficult.

• Free Media: A protracted Democratic debate means both Clinton and Obama receive top billing night after night in the national media narrative, relegating Bush and McCain to the sidelines. I envision McCain saying to his old media pals, "hey, what about me? Don't forget I'm relevant over here!"
• Campaign Focused on Democratic Issues: The vibrant debate between Clinton & Obama will mean this election is defined along Democratic themes NOT Republican. Healthcare, the economy and education will remain frontburner issues while the terror card fades into the background (unless al Qaeda rears its hideous head on American soil again).
• A Third Party Candidate Emerges: The dissafected conservatives may see an opening to run a third party candidate - they may view McCain as a sacrificial lamb - and decide to send a powerful reminder to the Republican establishment that they cannot win without grassroots conservative support. Don't be surprised if this happens. I think the longer the Dems don't have a nominee (which means we've got the spotlight) the greater the likelihood a conservative grassroots third party candidate jumping in becomes.
• The Power of the Media: The media is absolutely LOVING this. There is a bottom-line profit motive for our 24-7 cable news that propels this back-and-forth. If you haven't noticed, each time one of the Democratic candidates seems to propel slightly ahead, the moment the underdog over-performs, the MSM declares a momentum shift. A prolonged fight feeds the insatiable machine. They have a dog in this fight - and it's ALWAYS the underdog.

Romney Dropping Out - Making a Play for 2012?

The media is reporting this morning Mitt Romney's imminent departure from the GOP race. Apparently, the kids decided their shrinking inheritance wasn't worth continuing dad's losing battle for the presidential nomination.

The confluence of the announcement coming during the CPAC conference is remarkable. In my opinion, it raises the question: Have the conservatives abandoned the White House in 2008? Is Romney positioning himself as the conservative standard-bearer, following the 1976 Ronald Reagan strategy?

"Brakeing:" Bill Is Running

Satire is most powerful when it strikes a chord and encapsulates the striking absurdity we know as reality. This week's The Onion scores with the headline "Bill Clinton: Screw It, I'm Running for President."

Since the Iowa caucuses and Bill Clinton's raised public profile in his wife's campaign it has become more obvious to this observer that the Hillary for President campaign is, at its core, a Clinton Restoration effort. We may as well throw all pretense aside and call it for what it is: A third term for Bill Clinton. As The Onion brilliantly "quotes" the former president,

"For too long has this nation been deprived of a Bill Clinton presidency, and for too long have I been deprived of being president. Now I get to experience all these wonderful things again myself."

Desperately Seeking the Evangelical Vote

There was a time when evangelicals voted as a monolithic, unified bloc (or so the thinking went). This year they've shattered that piece of conventional wisdom. As The Rothenberg Political Report points out the evangelical voters have been as fickle and unpredictable as the wider GOP primary voter this cycle throwing their support to different candidates (and often providing the margin of victory for the winner) in each of the early GOP contests.

When Huckabee won Iowa with 46% of the evangelical vote many pundits assumed they had coalesced behind one of their own. This hasn't been the case. The Huckabee campaign desperately needs these voters - and is counting on them in states like South Carolina.

This must be the thinking behind Huckabee's recent call to re-write the Constitution to incorporate "God's standards."

Is Rudy Really Running?

The Rudy Retreat continues. He skipped Iowa, abandoned New Hampshire, ignored Michigan avoided South Carolina and now is in a polling freefall in Florida. After his 2000 aborted run against Hillary Clinton in New York it makes me wonder, does this guy really want to be president? He's not going to win the nomination by running the calendar with sixth-place finishes.

He has less fight in him than Grandpa Fred.

Did giving up the private sector's consulting millions (estimated $4M in 2007) cause him to rethink his choice?

Think about it - he didn't give up his consulting salary until very recently - and doesn't all this hype about him being the "9-11" National Security candidate make him much more marketable when he decides to return to his lucrative "calling" as a security consultant? Winning the GOP nod would expose Giuliani to increased scrutiny, threatening to reveal the "Emperor Has No Clothes" reality of his security credentials. With most pundits anticipating a GOP general election loss - regardless of the nominee - would lessen Rudy's value. Could it be that this "campaign" is nothing more than a PR effort for Giuliani Partners?

When he interrupted campaigning right before Christmas and was admitted to the hospital with a headache, I thought he was going to drop out, citing health reasons. After all, it's what "America's Mayor" does when the competition heats up - he cuts and runs.

I still wouldn't be surprised by a "Rudy Withdraws Headline" even before Feb 5th.

The Word of the Day: "Chaos"

The Morning After Michigan provides glee for Democrats as we watch the GOP nomination battle sink further into disarray. The national consensus is the race is in chaos.

But Democrats need to be cautious. It would be a strategic blunder to develop a sense of overconfidence this early in the campaign. The year is barely more than two weeks old and we've seen conventional wisdom twisted and turned on its head multiple times already.

One thing we can all be certain of at this point: There is certainly a long way to go. We haven't seen the last time the punditocracy is left cleaning the egg off their collective faces.

One might try to make the case that the Democratic race is as murky and unpredictable as the Republican contest. While the ultimate winner remains a question mark, I don't think "chaos" is an apt description on the Democratic side. There is a lot of a agreement on policy among the candidates. The vitriol we're experiencing right now regarding race and campaign tactics is actually calm (for a Democratic contest) and is a normal and expected part of a tight nominating contest.

The Republicans, on the other hand, are in disagreement over core issues and approaches - and each candidate is playing to win over their own faction and segment within their disintegrating coalition. This is why you see their candidates cherry-picking the contests where they will compete.

They are also caught in an unenviable vice: How to run a primary campaign advocating change (and against the sitting President) without alienating that president's supporters in the easily agitated GOP electorate? It will become even more difficult in the general election when the Democratic Party unites and turns all of its attention to the Republican nominee, who will either have to refute Dubya's policies (and risk the base staying home) or stick by their guy (and watch indies flock to the Democrats in droves).

Questions for both parties remain as Tsunami Tuesday approaches.

Can the Dems still be torn asunder? Yes (especially if race remains a topic in the upcoming contests)

Can the Republicans pull it together? Probably (but the continued pandering to factions who are fundamentally opposed to one another will make it less and less likely)

"A Fool Born Every Minute"

Must be what Bill is banking on when he says stuff like this on the campaign trail.