The Purity Purge Continues

Charlie Crist's decision to jump into the Florida Senate race threatens to open a deeper rift between the party's conservative base and leadership in DC. NRSC Chair John Cornyn's endorsement of Crist (the Obama hugger) over conservative Marco Rubio has enflamed the base. Red State's Erick Erickson is urging party donors to withhold funds (@ Not One Red Cent) from the NRSC.

In the past, most party committees stayed on the sidelines in primary fights. After losing over a dozen seats in the past two elections (and the possibility of losing 3-5 more in 2010), Cornyn finds himself in desperate circumstances, so he chose to back the popular moderate governor who has a substantial lead in early polls. But by rejecting a young conservative Hispanic did he risk further alienating a critical voting bloc?

Gregg's Judgment Day

If Judd Gregg – a man we know to not be a man of his word – listens to his colleagues entrities and decides to “unretire” next year and run for his New Hampshire Senate it could cause heartburn for the Republican Senate leadership. Democrats, who are currently eyeing Gregg’s open seat as a likely pick-up opportunity will still view the Granite State seat as competitive even with Gregg defending in the race.

But if Gregg does manage to retain the seat CQ Politics tells us it could scramble committee assignments among the GOPosaurs in the US Senate. The handshake deals between senior Republicans Chuck Grassley and Jeff Sessions could be in jeopardy if Gregg sticks around and asserts his seniority. While I'd rather see Gregg shuffle off to an early retirement in favor of a New Hampshire Democrat, it might be entertaining to watch the GOP feathers fly.

Sunday Muse, Ides of March Edition

Caesar: Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue shriller than all the music
Cry "Caesar!" Speak, Caesar is turn'd to hear.

Soothsayer: Beware the ides of March.

Caesar: What man is that?

Brutus: A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.
Julius Caesar Act 1, scene 2, 15–19

As if Team Obama didn’t have enough on its plate already:
· Sea level rise caused by melting Antarctic ice sheets and Greenland glaciers could inundate Florida by the end of the century.
· Could the raging drug war south of the border become the defining foreign policy crisis of the Obama Presidency?

From the Economic FUBAR File:
· Wonder what Harry “The Buck Stops Here” Truman would think of the Alan Greenspan’s "The Fed Didn't Cause the Housing Bubble" drivel?
· Does anyone else think NBC's censorship to protect GE’s bottom line no worse than Fox News' regurgitating of GOP talking points?

With campaign 2008 still not resolved in Minnesota, the politicos are already revving up for Election Day 2010. Can the Democrats break through and win a filibuster-breaking 60 Senate seats? The bigger question is, “Do they really want to?”

They could break the threshold by enticing Arlen Specter to abandon the dwindling herd of Irrelephants in the Senate. As we debate the possibility, the wingnuts at Human Events provide their hunting list of RINO Senators. You know it’s bad when Utah’s Bob Bennett and Mississippi’s Thad Cochran make their top ten.

Pure drivel from CQ Politics about the tough place Harry Reid finds himself in:

As Senate majority leader, he juggles a myriad of competing political interests. He also has to balance those against his own best interest as he gears up for a potentially tough re-election battle in 2010.

Lately, the Nevada Democrat has been putting some daylight between his positions and President Obama’s. It’s a strategy that might help him avoid the fate of Tom Daschle, who was defeated for re-election in South Dakota in 2004 despite being the Senate’s top Democrat.

Reid, 69, recently has made a point of saying he’s working with
Obama, not for him.

Right. Nevada’s voters backed President Obama last fall and kicked out one of their two Republican house members. The incumbent Republican governor is one of the least popular in the nation and the administration has moved to abandon Yucca Mountain, removing Nevada politics’ most radioactive issue and Harry Reid is afraid of running as part of the President’s team?

The analogy to Tom Daschle who ran in a Deep Red state against a very popular president riding the post-9/11 Terror Train is intellectually lame. If Reid is indeed frightened of the specter of Daschle’s defeat, Democrats should be worried about the quality of our Senate leadership.

Change I Can Believe In:
· Breaking the stalemate: Pat Leahy threatens to name names.
· Restoring the Constitution: Confounding Republicans, Democrats show they understand the Founding Principle of the three co-equal branches of government. After years of rubberstamping Dubya's policies, GOPers are perplexed by congressional Democrats fulfilling their Constitutional role.

From the “Wishful Thinking” File:
Doomsday Clock May Finally Stop Ticking

Ending on a positive note: Americans love our new First Lady.

Oh, Trent, How Shall We Replace Thee?

Sen. Trent Lott's surprising retirement announcement has the gay blogosphere wondering if he's the next GOP Senator to have the closet door blown wide open. Or, is it along the lines of "Show Me the Money!" as the denizens at DailyKos speculate? I tend to agree with the K Street storyline, but do believe there is a possibility Lott may join Sen. Widestance and Rev. Haggard in the GOP Hall of Self-Hating Homophobes. No evidence, just a hunch.

Regardless of his motivation, Sen. "Segregation was a Good Thing" Lott's sudden decision has caused turmoil in Mississippi, a reliably Red State at the presidential level. Will former RNC Chair (and current MS governor) be forced to schedule a special election prior to next November's presidential polling to determine Lott's successor? The state Democratic Party is vowing to fight for a separate date, upholding state election law. A special election's smaller turnout would increase Dems' chances of stealing the seat from the GOP.

Can one of the Mississippi Senate seats (Sen. Thad Cochran is up for re-election in 08) be claimed by a resurgent Democratic Party in the heart of Dixie?

The Republican's grim Senate 2008 prospects got a whole lot dimmer on Monday.

The Senate Horse Race 12 Months Out

Roll Call has a series of Senate poll numbers out today (via) Swing State:

One year and one day before Election Day 2008, it looks like the Dems have three GOP-held seats in the "Pick-Up" Column (CO, NH, and VA), two as pure toss-ups (MN and NM) with two (OR and ME) looking like the GOP may be able to hold.

Colorado [OPEN - Allard(R)]
Mark Udall (D): 48
Bob Schaeffer (R): 41
Undecided: 11

New Hampshire (R- Sununu)
Jay Buckey (D): 36
John Sununu (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 16

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 53
John Sununu (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 5

Virginia [OPEN - Warner (R)]
Mark Warner (D): 52
George Allen (R): 42
Undecided: 6

Mark Warner (D): 57
Jim Gilmore (R): 35
Undecided: 8

The field of candidates in New Mexico is far from set. The Draft (Tom) Udall effort appears to be gaining steam while Diane Denish has said she isn't running, instead focusing on the 2010 governor's race. Norm Coleman in Minnesota - struggling below the 50% mark against both leading DFL candidates - appears in trouble at this stage. I'd expect the movement in both of these races will be toward the Dems as the election draws nearer.

Minnesota (R- Coleman)
Mike Ciresi (D): 44
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 12

Al Franken (D): 45
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46
Undecided: 9

New Mexico [OPEN- Domenici (R)]
Marty Chavez (D): 48
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Diane Denish (D): 47
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 10

Bill Richardson (D): 58
Steve Pearce (R): 37
Undecided: 4

Don Wiviott (D): 32
Steve Pearce (R): 49
Undecided: 18

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Heather Wilson (R): 44
Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 49
Heather Wilson (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Bill Richardson (D): 59
Heather Wilson (R): 37
Undecided: 5

Don Wiviott (D): 38
Heather Wilson (R): 47
Undecided: 15

The resilience of moderates Collins and Smith may be put to the test in a presidential year, when both Maine and Oregon are expected to align in the Democratic column. These may be two states where the strength at the top of the ticket could make the difference.

Maine (R- Collins)
Tom Allen (D): 38
Susan Collins (R-inc): 55
Undecided: 8

Oregon (R- Smith)
Jeff Merkley (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 13

Steve Novick (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 16

With only two Dem-held seats (Johnson-SD and Landrieu-LA) considered vulnerable at this time, it looks like the Dems are looking at a pick up of 4-6 seats. There are other seats that a strong Democratic effort could put in play - particularly Kentucky (McConnell also below 50% in hypothetical matchups), North Carolina and Texas.

Senate 2008: Shattering Sabato's Crystal Ball

Some political observers have updated the 2008 Senate ratings following the Q2 Senate campaign filings, as incumbent fundraising numbers provide an opportunity to gauge the political landscape. What does the 2008 cycle look like with under 500 days to go before the November 2008 election? The general consensus (Cook Political Report, CQPolitics, Rothenberg, WaPo's the Fix) is reflected in the overall forecast by the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.

The Crystal Ball's brutal bottom line is that Republicans will be playing much more defense than Democrats, and so the early betting line favors continued, perhaps enhanced, Democratic control of the Senate.

Great news, right? Only if you're excited by the prospect of another Senate session dominated by GOP obstruction. To prevent this scenario, Democrats will need to overturn the current conventional wisdom (just like in 2006) and shatter Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Despite the GOP's "brutal bottom line," Sabato identifies ONLY SEVEN "probable competitive seats" - five Republican (CO, NH, ME, OR, MN) and two Dem (LA & SD). Even if the Dems win all seven of these contests the 111th Congress' partisan breakdown would be 54D, 44 R, 2 Indies.

If the Democrats win the White House and hold onto our Congressional majorities - the filibuster will be their last tool to defeat progressive legislation, protect their corporate backers, and reverse the disastrous policies of the Bush/Cheney administration. If you don't think this is a serious threat, you haven't been paying attention to how a stubborn and unified minority has stymied Senate action throughout 2007.

Never before have we seen this type of obstruction by a minority party. According to McClatchy, the previous record for number of cloture votes (requiring the 60 vote total to end debate) is 58, which occurred during both the 106th and 107th Congresses. Mitch and his Minority Misfits have already called 42 cloture votes - a pace that would result in 153!

This year Senate Republicans are threatening filibusters to block more legislation than ever before, a pattern that's rooted in — and could increase — the pettiness and dysfunction in Congress.
- snip -
Seven months into the current two-year term, the Senate has held 42 "cloture" votes aimed at shutting off extended debate — filibusters, or sometimes only the threat of one — and moving to up-or-down votes on contested legislation. Under Senate rules that protect a minority's right to debate, these votes require a 60-vote supermajority in the 100-member Senate.

Democrats have trouble mustering 60 votes; they've fallen short 22 times so far this year. That's largely why they haven't been able to deliver on their campaign promises.

Are there additional races where the Dems can win, pushing us over the 60 vote filibuster-proof majority?

Back in early June, I posed this same question and wrote a 3-part series "Building a Filibuster Proof SuperMajority" and created a "Vulnerability Factor Scoring" system to rank the 22 GOP held seats. The VF Score includes Personal Weakness (Cash on Hand, Age, Approval Ratings), Bush Drag (Bush approval ratings,) and Dem Party Strength.

In Part 1 I discussed the macro factors creating a "perfect storm" in which the 2008 elections could make the 2006 midterms look like the "good old days" for the Congressional Republicans. Incredibly, things have only worsened for the GOP in the past six weeks.

1. Recruiting – The NRSC's recruiting struggles continue. In Louisiana - the GOP's best pick-up opportunity, Karl Rove has been reduced to trying to entice a current Dem to switch parties and run against Mary Landrieu. Conversely, while the DSCC may have encountered recruiting challenges in some states, Democrats are poised to run strong campaigns in red states across the nation.
2. Fundraising – the financial gap between the party committees is widening. The June DSCC tally was more than double the money the NRSC raised. The Dems now have more than three times what the GOPers have in their campaign warchest. Dem incumbents are stockpiling money, while some GOPers' lackluster numbers are reinforcing retirement rumors.
3. Party ID -- Dems currently enjoy an unprecedented advantage over the Republicans, Despite low congressional approval numbers being reported by the MSM, Dems are still viewed more favorably by the public, enjoying a 9 point lead over the GOP in recent generic congressional ballot polls.
4. Voter Enthusiasm - Public interest in the Democratic presidential race is way ahead of the Republicans battle, as TV ratings indicate and the number of Americans donating to Dem candidates.
5. Public Support Rasmussen Polling reports the public views the Democrats as more capable of dealing with 9 of 10 key issues confronting the nation. Even on the one issue - national security - the Dems don't lead on, it's essentially a statistical tie of 44-45.
6. Iraq Inaction: The biggest macro factor is Iraq. The longer the GOP Congressmen and Senators keep their heads in the sand as the 2008 election approaches, the number of officeholders who become endangered is only going to increase. I cannot provide a link to empirically validate this statement but I will say this. The other day, pollsters Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen were on Shammity & Colmes. While Sean kept trying to make the claim the voters are going to punish the Democrats in 2008 for being anti-American, anti-war defeatists who promote higher taxes and socialist healthcare both pollsters put the smack down on Sean - basically telling him Iraq TRUMPS everything. The American people have decided the war has been lost and want out ASAP. The crushed look on his face was simply priceless. He persisted with the talking points and was smacked down again. If the GOPers allow the goalposts to be moved from September to November, the political price for the GOP could be enormous.
   
   The Vulnerability Factor Scoring System (defined in Part II) was designed to determine where Democrats could best invest limited resources - although with the aforementioned money advantage, Dems should be running strong, well-financed campaigns in all 34 races next year. Its also a score that incorporates dynamic variables requiring periodic updating. With the Q2 numbers all reported, it's time to see whether the new information has changed the Senate 2008 roster.

Rank (Prev)	State	VF July	VF June
1 (2)	MN	15	13
2 (1)	NH	14.5	13.5
3 (2)	OR	13	13
4 (4)	CO	12	12
5 (7)	ME	11	10
6 (5)	NM	10.5	11.5
7 (6)	NC	10	11
8 (8)	TN	9	9
9 (9)	VA	7.5	7.5
10 (10)	KS	7	7
11 (11)	AK	6.5	5.5
12 (13)	TX	5.5	4.5
13 (11)	KY	4.5	5.5
13 (13)	SC	4.5	4.5
13 (13)	GA	4.5	4.5
16 (16)	MS	4	4
16 (18)	NE	4	3
16 (16)	OK	4	4
19 (19)	WY	3	3
19 (NR)	WY-2	3	N/A
21 (20)	AL	2.5	2.5
22 (21)	ID	2	2

A new factor has been introduced into the July VF Score following the Q2 filings - any race in which a challenger has over $200K CoH as of July 1 received an additional "1" in the score. VF Score movement this month is mainly caused by these factors: 1) impressive challenger fundraising caused upward movement (MN, ME, NH and TX -although Mikal Watts' self-financed campaign must be viewed with a grain of salt until he shows he's more than a willingness to open his bank account), 2) strong incumbent fundraising lowered the VF score in some races where the incumbent hit the money trail (NC, KY, NM). 3) Some incumbents (MN, OR) saw their personal approval numbers continue to fall and this increased their VF Score.

Consensus Top Five: MN, NH, CO, ME, OR have serious candidates or crowded primaries. Even though the DSCC has encountered difficulty recruiting their top choices in OR and NH, the Democratic primary fields include strong progressive challengers, even if Shaheen and Merkey don't opt into the races. The money is flowing in these states already. In four of the five (the exception being Oregon) a Democrat has over $500K CoH. Those states - all blue or purple - will have competitive contests and will garner the lion's share of the media and analysts attention.

Races 6-12: It's the second tier where the party's 50 state strategy can prove the most fruitful. If we fail to recruit and back viable challengers in North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska, Texas, Virginia and New Mexico we will miss an unprecedented opportunity to advance a Democratic agenda into the next decade. These races may be long-shots but a variety of factors make them potential pick up opportunities, particularly if the anti-Republican political climate continues.

Retirement Watch - Virginia (Warner) The Virginia race appears to be in a state of suspended animation - with all awaiting John Warner's expected retirement. When - or if - that happens, Virginia will rocket to the top of everyone's Watch List.

Primary on the Horizon - Texas (Cornyn) The Lone Star State may be shaping up to be an unanticipated and fascinating contest. Cornyn's abysmal approval numbers (in the low forties) make him vulnerable. He's going to have to hope Texas' GOP-leaning presidential preference translates into coattails to overcome those numbers. Sensing an opportunity, two Democrats have recently announced plans to challenge Cornyn. Rick Noriega's recent announcement he would run for the seat has enlivened the local and national netroots. Attorney Mikal Watts (TX) has deep pockets and is willing to self-finance - to the tune of over $4 million thus far.

Disenchantment in the Southwest - New Mexico (Domenici) Despite scandal and falling poll numbers, it doesn't look like Pajama Pete will retire, as he's got an August fundraiser scheduled back in NM with Bush headlining. There is a declared Dem - real estate developer Don Wiviott - another self-financer ($400K form his personal accounts) The presence of Gov. Bill Richardson - who could opt to run for the seat if his presidential campaign flounders is viewed by some local political observers as a possible explanation high-profile Dems have not jumped into take on scandal-tinged Domenici.

The Berkowitz/Begich Tag Team - Alaska (Stevens) The stench of corruption in the Alaska DC delegation is an embarassment to the state and to the Republican Party. After decades in office, Stevens' Senate seat and Rep. Don Young's At-Large House seat are suddenly in play. DC Democrats have taken notice and have been pushing hard for former state legislator Ethan Berkowitz and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to take on the ethically challenged duo. Berkowitz recently returned from meetings with DC Dems and an announcement regarding his plans is expected soon. If there is a Macaca Moment in 2008, the odds of it being provided by Young or Stevens are pretty high.

Desperately Seeking Democrats - North Carolina (Dole), Kansas (Roberts), Tennessee (Alexander) All of these states are difficult for Dems down-ticket in a presidential election year but none of these three incumbents should be viewed as unbeatable. Thus far, the netroots and the DSCC has been frustrated by the unwillingness of a Tar Heel Democrat to step forward and take on Liddy Dole - the most vulnerable of the trio. Kansas appears to be overlooked by analysts and activists. Despite his low approval ratings, Pat Roberts may not get a Democratic challenger for a second cycle in a row! With the state GOP conducting internecine warfare in recent years, the Dems should be able to at least run a credible Senate candidate. If Sebelius and Boyda can win, why can't it happen in the Senate? Alexander also suffers from anemic approval ratings but has also failed to attract a challenger. Tennessee is a state where the presidential race could have huge impact, particularly if either of two former Senators (Gore and/or Thompson) runs and wins their party's nomination.

Can Democrats win the nine (or ten if you discount Lieberman) seats needed to remove the filibuster weapon from the GOP arsenal? Can we shatter Sabato's Crystal Ball predictions, overturn conventional wisdomw (again!) and reshape the political landscape? Only if we identify, recruit and finance candidates now.

Cross-posted at Daily Kos and An Enduring Democratic Majority.

GOP Senate Retirement Watch - the Immigration Vote

Political observers are reading the tea leaves to determine which GOP Senators are contemplating retirement. In addition to Colorado Sen Allard, as many as seven more (nearly a third of the 22 seats they are defending in 2008) are rumored to be considering leaving Congress. They are: Cochran (MS), Craig (ID), Domenici (NM), Hagel (NE), Inhofe (OK), Stevens (AK) and Warner (VA)

Last week's immigration vote may have provided some clue as to who is calling it quits and who is gearing up for a campaign.

Of course, many of us will be watching the Q2 fundraising numbers as they become available in the coming weeks (the Senate still files paper reports, so they won't be immediately available as with House and Presidential amounts). If John Warner hasn't revved up the fundraising efforts over Q1 (when he deposited a grand total of $500), a retirement will be viewed as a near-certainty.

A look at how these Senators voted on immigration reform reveals two are likely to relinquish their seats, two others are gearing up for another run, while the plans of the remaining three remain too difficult to determine.

Leaving the Senate? Of the seven, only two (Hagel and Craig) voted for cloture. Both have already attracted primary challengers from the rightwing and this "YES" vote only serves to weaken them within the GOP base. I'd say this indicates both Senators are not planning reelection campaigns.

Stubborn Old Men: Domenici and Stevens, each tainted by scandal and ongoing investigations, voted against cloture. These votes represent a switch from their "YES" votes on the previous cloture motion. A reversal indicates they are being responsive to the demands of the conservative activists who are critical to their re-election efforts. Voting for cloture would have further weakened them back home, where both have watched their standing with the voters plummet in recent months.

Show Me the Money: Virginia's Warner is the third GOP Senator who switched his vote. Until we see his Q2 fundraising numbers, I'd hold off on making any prediction as to his 2008 plans.

The immigration votes don't provide insight into the plans of the remaining two, as both Inhofe and Cochran voted with the majority of GOP senators each time.

Building a Filibuster Proof SuperMajority Part 3

Cross-posted at Daily Kos.

This is the third in a three-part series designed to determine whether Democrats can achieve a net gain of nine seats in the US Senate in the 2008 elections.

Nine seats on top of the six seat gain already achieved in 2006? "Outrageously over the top," you might be thinking. Has any party ever gained fifteen seats over the course of two cycles?

Since you ask. A little history:
Major Mojo Shift: The Republicans netted 15 seats between the 1978 (net gain 3) and 1980 (net gain 12) elections. Ronnie had some impressive coattails when he rode in from the West.

The Big Mo Swings Back: In 1986, the Democrats defeated nine GOP incumbents, while losing a seat in Missouri for a net gain of eight seats, seizing control of the Senate.

So, a gain of nine seats is NOT unprecedented. Can the Democrats accomplish the feat in 2008?

Let’s see.

If they do, it's not going to be easy. Most of the GOP incumbents up for re-election next year reside in the Red States of the South, Plains and Interior West (NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, TN, TX, OK, KS, NE, WY {2}, and ID). Additionally, the Dems have two vulnerable seats in LA and SD that they must defend if their effort to dramatically expand their majority is to be successful. The Democrats face even longer odds in a presidential election year.

Part 1 reviewed the national climate and how, despite long odds, Democrats have a real chance to field strong challenges. The national mood is primed for Dean's Fifty State strategy and Democrats are presented with tantalizing opportunities across America. It also surveyed the current "consensus" of the 2008 Senate races, as measured by Beltway Insiders. The "low-hanging" fruit for Democratic pickups include:

* CO (open)
* NH (Sununu)
* ME (Collins)
* MN (Coleman)

Additionally, OR (Smith) and NC (Dole) make some lists.

That's six of the 22 GOP-held seats. If Dems manage to win 4 of these (and hold onto LA and SD), they'll have a 55-45 majority. Where else might they look for a pick-up opportunity?

Part 2 explained the *Vulnerability Factor Score*, which represents my effort to quantify and identify the Red States that might be a little more purple than the others. The factors included in the score include current finances, age, scandal, strength of the state democratic party, previous election returns, and President Bush's approval ratings.

This VF Score is comprised of three components
* PERSONAL WEAKNESS (PW) (possible range 0-8)
* BUSH DRAG (BD) (possible range 0-5)
* PARTY STRENGTH (PS) (possible range 0-7)
The higher the score (total VF range - 0-20), the more likely a Democratic challenge might find success. Keep in mind this VF score does not include the strength of current (or potential) challengers. When we get closer to the election season, I anticipate adding a "Challenger Quotient" to adjust the listings to accomodate real-world changes.

It is important to note that seven states still have no Dem challenger. Please check out Senateguru2008's recent posting addressing this issue.

VULNERABILITY FACTOR SCORES - GOP HELD SEATS UP IN 2008

State	VF	PW	BD	PS	State	VF	PW	BD	PS
1 NH	13.5	4	5	4.5	12 KY	5.5	2	1	2.5
2 MN	13	3	5	5	13 GA	4.5	3	0	1.5
3 OR	13	2	5	6	14 SC	4.5	2	2	0.5
4 CO	12	4	3	5	15 TX	4.5	4	0	0.5
5 NM	11.5	4	2	5.5	16 MS	4	1	0	3
6 NC	11	5	1	5	17 OK	4	1	0	3
7 ME	10	0	5	5	18 NE	3	2	0	1
8 TN	9	3	2	4	19 WY	3	1	0	2
9 VA	7.5	3	2	2.5	20 AL	2.5	0	0	2.5
10 KS	7	2	2	3	21 ID	2	2	0	0
11 AK	5.5	3	1	1.5

*DEMOCRATIC SENATE SEAT COUNT (current) 51 *

*Top Seven - The Low Hanging Fruit:* Five of the seven states that have the highest VF score (VF = 10+) also appear on most every prognosticator's list as the Dems best pickup opportunities. It's also not surprising that all, with the exception of NC, are considered to be Democratic-leaning or battleground states in presidential contests. Four (CO, NH, MN and ME) have top tier Democratic challengers, and I encourage you to visit their campaign websites and consider any way you might be able to support their efforts.

The remaining three, Oregon, North Carolina and New Mexico merit further review:

(rating system - cold, tepid, lukewarm, warm - the hotter the race, the hotter rating)

* Oregon (Smith)- (VF 13) Race Tracker wiki: OR-Sen. In 2005, Gordon Smith received a 20% liberal rating from Americans for Democratic Actionn (ADA) and has a 74.5 lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union (ACU). Despite approval numbers below 50%, Democrats have encountered significant resistance from the state party's "big names" - Reps DeFazio & Blumenauer and former Gov. Kitzhaber have all ruled out running - to take on Smith. The Democratic lean of the state makes this a real pick-up opportunity that may slip from the Democrats grasp. The one declared candidate is Steve Novick, an environmental lawyer who could make a credible run. At first glance, Novick lookes like a candidate progressives could rally around. Over at Blue Oregon, they're reporting on political neophyte Eileen Brady meeting with DSCC Chair Schumer about the possibility of jumping into the race. Brady is an entrepreneur with an environmental background. Kossack *torridjoe* posts regularly on this contest and local Oregon politics are covered at his Loaded Orygun blog. If you're an Oregonian, I encourage you to join the grassroots movement to defeat Smith at StopGordonSmith.com.
DEM PICKUP RATING - tepid
NEEDS A CANDIDATE
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* New Mexico (Domenici)- (VF 11.5) Race Tracker wiki: NM-Sen New Mexico is the best pick-up opportunity for Democrats that most of the experts are currently overlooking. This is perhaps the most purple state of any in America. The NM State Democratic Party is healthy and competitive. To top it all off, "Pajama Pete" Domenici has embroiled himself in the middle of the USAGate attorney firings. It was long thought he had planned to retire at the end of this term, but Heather Wilson, the heir apparent to the Domenici seat, also finds herself entangled in the scandal. Democrats have a strong field of potential challengers to take on Domenici, who appears increasingly vulnerable as his longstanding sky-high approval in the state has plummeted throughout 2007. The second quarter fundraising numbers will provide more insight into Domenici's 2008 plans. The more Abu Gonzo stays in the news, it is likely Pajama Pete's predicament continues to deteriorate. For thorough coverage of the local NM beat *fbihop* does an excellent job at the New Mexico FBIHOP blog.
DEM PICKUP RATING - warm
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* North Carolina (Dole)- (VF 11) Race Tracker wiki: NC-Sen. Sen Dole is vulnerable not only because she is a freshman senator over the age of seventy. Her personal approval numbers are below 50% and recent polling reveals a deep dissatisfaction with the Republican Party in the state, with Democrats enjoying a 47%-42% lead in a generic presidential survey. Dole was unimpressive as NRSC chair during the 2006 cycle. It will be interesting to see how successful she is in tapping into the fundraising network this quarter. *BlueSouth* who does an impressive job reporting on the local developments and has a website - DraftBradMiller.org - devoted to convincing Rep. Brad Miller to jump into the race. In my opinion, North Carolina represents a real opportunity. If Edwards were the nominee, it would likely boost any challenger's vote total, further endangering Dole. Local NC Dem news can be found at NCBlue.
DEM PICKUP RATING - lukewarm
NEEDS A CANDIDATE

Let's assume the Democrats succeed in CO, NH, MN and ME and things fall in place to pick up two of the three remaining in the top seven. That gets us tantalizing close to the sixty seat goal.

*DEMOCRATIC SENATE SEAT COUNT 57 *

*Middle Eight - With A Little Bit of Luck & A Whole Lotta Work: * In this group, there are four freshmen, two long-serving Senators who are rumored to be contemplating retirement, one under the target of an FBI probe and a Majority Leader under seige from within his own party. So, maybe sixty is possible.

* Tennessee (Alexander) - (VF 9) Race tracker wiki: TN-Sen. Former Education Secretary and presidential candidate Alexander has yet to draw a challenger. The bench here is strong, including 2006 nominee Harold Ford, Jr and popular Gov. Phil Bredesen, although both seem to be staying on the sidelines in 2008. There is a 500 pound elephant and 1,000 pound donkey hanging over this race - potential presidential heavyweights Al Gore and Fred Thompson, both former TN senators, could scramble all calculations in the state if either - or both - end up as the nominees at the top of the 2008 ballot. After Ford's impressive - but ultimately unsuccessful 2006 run - and Alexander's less than stellar approval ratings, logic says this is a winnable state for the right Democratic candidate.
DEM PICKUP RATING - cold
NEEDS A CANDIDATE
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* Virginia (Warner) - (VF 7.5) Race tracker wiki: VA-Sen. Retirement rumors swirl around John Warner, who managed to raise only $500 in the first quarter. Former Gov Mark Warner, who tantalized many with the possibility of a presidential run this year, would be a formidable foe, regardless of John Warner's decision. If Warner does retire, Rep. Tom Davis is likely to try to move up on the Republican side. Mark Warner would be the favorite in such a matchup. Of the eight seats in the second group, Virginia is the likeliest to flip to the Democrats' column, if Warner throws his hat into the ring.
DEM PICKUP RATING - tepid
NEEDS CANDIDATE

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* Kansas (Roberts) - (VF 7) Race tracker wiki: KS-Sen. Roberts is not popular, despite his conservative credentials in a solidly conservative state. Recent Dem successes in the state - Gov. Sebelius, Nancy Boyda's stunning upset of Jim Ryun this past November - make Kansas a little less red than its neighbors. It also makes it an 'under the radar' pick-up opportunity. Kansas and Tennessee are the two states that do not yet have a Democratic entrant in which a top tier candidate could score an upset victory, especially if the national anti-GOP mood continues, or worsens. Thus far, the potential challengers seem to be reluctant to jump in. Blue Tide Rising is a local Kansas blog covering progressive news from the heartland.
DEM PICKUP RATING - cold
NEEDS A CANDIDATE

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* Alaska (Stevens) - (VF 5.5) Race tracker wiki: AK-Sen. Ted Stevens hs trouble at home. He's the subject of FBI investigations and if I were a betting man, I'd say the odds are increasing each week that he will decide to retire. Now, is there a Democrat in the the Last Frontier that has the capability of winning the seat? Right now, it doesn't look promising. Republicans have shown a willingness to tolerate nepotism (Lisa Murkowski) but the corruption would appear to provide an opening - if there were any Democrats on deck. This is a state where it may be too soon to expect a 50 State strategy to pay dividends.
DEM PICKUP RATING - tepid
NEEDS A CANDIDATE

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* Kentucky (McConnell) - (VF 5.5) Race tracker wiki: KY-Sen. Defeating Mighty Mitch would be wonderful payback after the Daschle defeat in 2004. One of three states electing Governors in 2007, McConnell, once described as the "Godfather" of the Kentucky GOP, backed the losing primary challeng by former Rep. Anne Northup in May. The ethically challenged incumbent Gov Ernie Fletcher was not amused. The conservative base is also furious with McConnell over his support of the immigration reform legislation. Now, McConnell faces a primary challenge, although being knocked out then doesn't seem all that likely. There is a pretty vocal anti-McConnell Kentucky netroots presence and much of their news and happenings can be found at DitchMitchKY.com. The DSCC is peddling polls showing McConnell can be beaten and multiple candidates have made public their potential interest in running.
DEM PICKUP RATING - lukewarm

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* Georgia (Chambliss) - (VF 4.5) Race tracker wiki: GA-Sen. The defeat of "Sucksbee" Chambliss would be the best storyline coming out of election night 2008 after the savaging the Ralph Reed GA GOP attack machine put war hero Max Cleland through in the 2002 campaign. Georgia is one of the rare states that has continued trending toward the GOP over the past couple of elections. The highest profile Dem in the race, Vernon Jones (a conservative Dem who voted for Bush in 04) was joined by two lesser-known candidates, Dale Cardwell and Rand Knight this past week. *Volvodrivingliberal* diaried on Cardwell, and he doesn't look much better, with his calls for abolishing the IRS. A cursory glance at Knight's website reveals a young photogenic ecologist. All in all, it doesn't look promising for the GA Democratic Party. Do we really want another Blue Dog in Congress? For Peach State progressive news, check out Tondee's Tavern.
DEM PICKUP RATING - cold

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* South Carolina (Graham) - (VF 4.5) Race tracker wiki: SC-Sen. Lindsay Graham, freshman conservative is unlikely to face significant Democratic opposition in his re-election effort. In fact, he may have more dissent in his own party based on his association with comprehensive immigration reform. THe base is mad as is his GOP Senate homestate colleague, Jim DeMint who has made no secret of his disdain for the legislation. He and Jim DeMint (R-SC) have exchanged harsh words as they find themselves on opposite sides of the contentious issue.
DEM PICKUP RATING - cold
NEEDS A CANDIDATE
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* Texas (Cornyn) - (VF 4.5) Race tracker wiki: TX-Sen. The freshman Cornyn is strikingly unpopular in Bush's home state. *Skulnick* poses in a diary this morning the question: Could Texas voters reject a GOP incumbent? With ultra wealthy candidate Mykal Watts the Democrats may actually have a fighting chance. For a quirky - yet accurate - accounting of Texas politics, Burnt Orange Report is a good resource.
DEM PICKUP RATING - tepid

If the Democrats are lucky, invest the money, energy and resources now, they could conceivably win three of the eight in the second tier states.

*DEMOCRATIC SENATE SEAT COUNT 60*

*Bottom Seven - The Real Sleepers - * I know that there's been a lot of noise about Nebraska & Idaho, where incumbents will be challenged in a primary battle and Wyoming, which now has two Senate seats up in 2008. And, Inhofe in Oklahoma could be vulnerable - I'd nominate him as the "Most likely to emulate George Allen" in 2008 cycle. I'll look at those in a later posting.

The last time one party controlled 60 or more seats was in 1974, when the Democrats held 61. It may happen again sooner than anyone thinks.

Building a Filibuster Proof SuperMajority Part 2

Cross-posted at Daily Kos.

The Democratic Party goes into next year's Senate elections with a built-in structural advantage over the Republicans, needing only to defend 12 incumbents to the Republicans' daunting challenge of defending 21 (now 22 with the Wyoming vacancy) during a period when the GOP brand has plummeted.

Most analysts forecast the Dems at having a chance to realize a net gain of 3-4 seats, if the current political climate continues through the election. If these predictions come true, the Democrats could hold a 55-45 seat majority in the upper chamber.

A ten seat majority sounds pretty impressive until you remember the "F-word" - the 10-letter one, that is.

After the defeat on the Iraq supplemental, it's clear a mere majority isn't enough. The only number that matters, and will thwart "Mitch and his MerryMen" from throwing their filibuster-laced temper tantrums is SIXTY.

Can we possibly get there in 2008?

This is the second in a three-part series addressing that question. The first, creatively titled "Part 1", reviewed the current thinking of the "Inside the Beltway" punditry class regarding the 2008 Senate races. Among the talking heads, there is a general consensus as to the top 4-5 Democratic pick-up opportunities. The third installment (coming later this week) will look at the tier 2 seats that hold the Dems' best chance of winning if we start the legwork now (and things continue to break our way).

For those too lazy/disinterested to click back and pore through the previous post, here's the Readers Digest Condensed Version:

General Consensus -
* Structural advantage Dems
* Forecast - 4-5 GOP-held seats are Dem pick-up opportunities
* Top Tier Seats - CO (open), NH (Sununu), MN (Coleman), ME (Collins), OR (Smith) with some analysts including NC (Dole)

Biggest Challenge
* Majority of twenty-one 2008 GOP seats are in Red States

Democrats Opportunity
* NRSC recruiting abysmal
* GOP fundraising lagging behind Dems
* Party ID, voter enthusiasm and issues all favor Democrats

Potential Number of GOP seats in play*
* WaPo = twelve
* CQ Politics = fourteen
* Cook Political Report = eleven
* numbers above include possible retirements

As previously stated, the road to the Senate Sixty is built on the assumption that Dems hold onto all 12 of our seats, including the two most vulnerable Senators in Louisiana and South Dakota.

Once again, I'll acknowledge that reaching the Senate 60 is a lofty goal, and may require what others may describe as "wishful thinking." But, as I put the finishing touches on this post, the poll results from Part one show 24% of respondents predicting a pickup of 9+ seats next year. Apparently I'm not the only dreamer - there are at least TWENTY others out there!

Now that everyone is up to speed, how do we identify that second tier, the group of Senators we can target with the higher likelihood of flipping the seat to the Democratic column? Remember that Virginia was way down on the 'experts' list in 2005. And, if Jim Webb hadn't ignored the prognosticator's predictions, he wouldn't have been in position to seize the moment when the true "Future President George Allen" revealed himself.

Which senator is a "Macaca" moment away from losing his seat? Which state has shown a more 'purple' tinge below the presidential level? To answer these questions, I developed my Vulnerability Factor Scoring System.

This VF Score is simple and quite subjective. I've included the various factors I - an amateur political junkie - believe determines where a Democratic candidate may be most successful. I'm a strong supporter of Dean's fifty state strategy and don't mean to imply that any seat is out of reach. But, when there is a list of 22 targets, it makes sense to figure out where our energies should be focused.

The Vulnerability Factor Score

In creating this scoring system, I asked, “What wins elections?”

Answer: Money, popularity and party strength. Therefore, these are the factors I used in building my VF Score.

Money - Using the most recent FEC information (from Q1 2007), I gave any incumbent with less than $750,000 Cash On Hand at the start of April a score of 1 – indicating the fundraising was weak. There were only six Senators that met this criterion: Craig (ID), Domenici (NM), Enzi (WY), Hagel (NE), Stevens (AK) and Warner (VA).

Granted, all of these states are small (except Virginia) and require smaller war chests to finance campaigns. However, these Senators rose considerably less money than their counterparts during the quarter, indicating a potential lack of interest in the 2008 campaign. All of these senators, with the exception of Enzi, have been the subject of retirement rumors. It’s also important to note that the LOWEST CoH figure for an incumbent Democrat was Tim Johnson’s $1,218,625. Every Democrat, except Biden whose attention is focused elsewhere for the time being, raised over $650,000 in the first three months of 2007.

Popularity - Politicians get elected because they’re well-liked. But, in an era when the national mood is one of discontent and anger, it’s important to factor in both personal approval as well as presidential/partisan approval ratings. Therefore the VF Score incorporates senate and presidential approval numbers. Freshmen and any incumbent who received less than 55% of the vote in the previous election are traditionally targeted for the upcoming cycle. My vulnerability score includes these factors - as well as age - in this manner:

* Freshmen get “1” added to their VF score.
* If incumbent received less than 55% in 2002, add “1”
* If incumbent approval rating less than 55%, add “1”, if less than 50% add “2”
* If incumbent is over age 70, add “1”
* If a primary challenge is underway, add “1”
* If incumbent is under investigation, add "1"
All of the factors above (including the CoH numbers), contribute to a candidate’s “PERSONAL WEAKNESS” score.

The “PERSONAL WEAKNESS” score range = 0 – 8.

Dole (5), Sununu (4), and Cornyn (4) have the highest scores, with Sessions and Collins both receiving “0”

To measure the Bush/GOP drag on a candidate’s re-election effort, I used the following:

If President Bush’s approval rating in state* is
* between 40-45%, add “1”,
* between 37-40%, add “2”,
* lower than 37%, add “3”
Additionally, if during the 2004 election, Bush received
* between 50-55% of vote, add “1”,
* if Bush vote total less than 50%, add “2”

*Bush approval ratings are from August 2006 - the most recent full fifty state listing I could locate. While Bush’s numbers have continued to fall,using the same polling date allows an "apples to apples" comparison between states and achieves the goal of identifying where Bush and the Republican Party are likely to have the bigger “drag” on a re-election campaign.

The “BUSH DRAG” score range = 0-5.

There are four states that get the maximum “BUSH DRAG” score – ME, MN, NH and OR. Not surprisingly, these are all Gore/Kerry states. If the top of the Democratic ticket is rolling toward victory, the incumbents in these states are going to have a difficult time holding onto their seats.

Party Strength The third element of the Vulnerability Score is the strength of the local Democratic Party. Where have Democrats shown an ability to win statewide office? Are the Democrats a force in the state legislature? It's a measurement of "bench strength" and the Democratic Party brand in the state. Have the state's voters shown a willingness to cast a vote for a candidate with a (D) next to their name?

The "Party Strength" component is built as follows. If the Democrats hold the following state offices:
* Governor, add "1"
* Attorney General, add "1"
* US Senator, add "1"
* Control State House/Assembly, add "1"
* Control State Senate, add "1"*

If Congressional delegation is composed:
* Dems hold less than 50% of state's seats, add "0.5"
* Dems hold between 50-75% of state's seats, add "1"
* Dems hold over 75% of state's seats, add "2"
* Dems hold ZERO seats, add "0"

*Four states (AK, ME, MS, & OK) have either evenly split or 'powersharing' agreements in their Senates, and have been given "0.5" as a result. Nebraska's non-partisan unicameral legislature removes this component from the VF score.

The "PARTY STRENGTH" scoring range is 0-7.

Of the twenty-one states, Oregon (6) and New Mexico (5.5) have the strongest Democratic party, followed by Minnesota, Maine and North Carolina (5). The weakest scores were Idaho (zero), South Carolina (0.5), Texas (0.5), Alaska (1.5) and Georgia (1.5).

As I said previously, this scoring system is relatively simple and is subjective - a professional political scientist could (and likely has) built a far more complex and accurate model to determine where the DSCC should invest it's resources. Let's hope so.

To arrive at the Overall Vulnerability Factor Score I simply add the three components together. Therefore, the Vulnerability Factor Score range is 0-20. New Hampshire, with a VF score of 13.5 is the highest and Idaho, with a VF score 2 is the lowest. The complete results look like this:

State	VF	PW	BD	PS
NH	13.5	4	5	4.5
MN	13	3	5	5
OR	13	2	5	6
NM	11.5	4	2	5.5
NC	11	5	1	5
ME	10	0	5	5
TN	9	3	2	4
VA	7.5	3	2	2.5
KS	7	2	2	3
AKM	5.5	3	1	1.5
KY	5.5	2	1	2.5
GA	4.5	3	0	1.5
SC	4.5	2	2	0.5
TX	4.5	4	0	0.5
MS	4	1	0	3
OK	4	1	0	3
NE	3	2	0	1
WY	3	1	0	2
AL	2.5	0	0	2.5
ID	2	2	0	0

So, my little VF scoring system reveals a top tier similar to those of the experts. In the next installment, I'll take a look at the following states to determine the Democrats road to sixty: New Mexico, Oregon, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska.

Of these seats, we need to win five (assuming wins in CO, NH, ME and MN).

UP NEXT: PART III: THE SECOND TIER OPPORTUNITIES

Building a Filibuster Proof SuperMajority Part 1

Cross posted at Daily Kos.

I started working on this post in mid May and put it aside the day the Iraq supplemental bill passed. In the aftermath of the Democratic capitulation to the lame duck White House warlords, I found it somewhat difficult to focus on the upcoming election, frustrated and disappointed by the results.

Eventally, the anger subsided and I accepted what I knew all along: the lesson from the Iraq vote MUST be this: a Congressional Democratic majority is simply not enough.

A razor thin majority in the US Senate is impotent, particularly when we don't control the White House. And, as long as we don't have a filibuster-proof SIXTY SEATS, we will be handcuffed, hoodwinked and outmaneuvered by a smart and crafty minority.

We need to harness the anger and find a way to attain 60 seats SOONER rather than LATER.

At first glance the task ahead is daunting. The majority of Republican incumbents running in 2008 reside in Red States. In an effort to determine which of these is more purple than the others, I created a Vulnerability Score for each of the 21 races.

First, some acknowledgements - back in February, brownsox posted about getting to 60 by the 2010 midterms, which certainly seems doable, although we can’t assume the current state of chaos in the Republican Party will continue past the end of the Bush/Cheney regime. We need to seize the current opportunity and expand the majority now.

In recent days, two kossacks have started the conversation, mehitabel9 and plf515, and at plf515’s suggestion, I’m going to expand upon their initial observations. Of course, another excellent source for Senate 2008 news is, Senateguru2008, whose blog does an excellent job following the latest in senate campaign news.

Their analysis makes predictions built on a mixture of raw data and current events. I aim to expand on their work by building a "Vulnerabilty Score," incorporating campaign finances, approval ratings, and local partisan sentiment, as measured by Bush's approval ratings and Democratic party strength.

This is the first of three posts. This post will briefly look at how the "Inside the Beltway experts" view the upcoming cycle. The second will explain the Vulnerabilty Scoring system. The third will take a closer look at the most vulnerable incumbents.

I'll acknowledge that attaining the goal of 60 seats is lofty and, as such, the analysis may occassionally venture into the realm of “wishful thinking.”

But, if we look back at the 2006 midterms, even the biggest dreamers of 2005 wouldn’t have anticipated a six seat pickup and a Democratic majority in the 2006 midterms. So, I say, let’s set our goals high – and dare to dream!

I haven't always been of this opinion. When Chris Cillizza from the WaPo's blog "The Fix" initially wrote two possible scenarios for the Dems reaching the bullet-proof 60 Senate Seats in April, I shook my head in disbelief, particularly when he argued there may be an outside chance of getting there in ONE ELECTION CYCLE

I was concerned that this might be the start of setting unreasonable expectations and, if the MSM and the Democratic base both bought into the idea we could win NINE seats in 2008, anything short of that would be viewed as a failure.

But, after the surrender on Iraq, my opinion changed. The stakes are simply too high to be content with incremental change.

Additionally, the ongoing national shift away from the Republicans has shifted the playing field. By virtually every measuremnt, Republicans are in freefall:

1) Recruiting – during this critical recruiting stage, the NRSC has failed to convince one single top-tier challenger to take on a Democratic incumbent
2) Fundraising – breaking a long-standing money advantage, GOP committees and candidates are raising money far slower than Democrats
3) Party ID – a majority of Americans (including leaners) now identify as Democrats, according to Gallup.
4) Voter Enthusiasm - Public interest in the Democratic presidential race is way ahead of the Republicans battle, as TV ratings indicate.
5) Public Support Rasmussen Polling reports that Democrats have the advantage on ALL TEN KEY ISSUES, the first time this has happened in the decade Rasmussen has been asking.

And, while the Republicans continue their retreat, the Democrats are on offense and expanding the playing field, according to The Hill:

While the DSCC has shifted its recruiting focus to less vulnerable seats in states such as Kentucky and Texas, the NRSC is still looking for candidates to tackle top targets in Louisiana, Montana and South Dakota. In Colorado, former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) unexpectedly dropped out of the open-seat race, leaving another hole to fill.

So, how can we get to 60? And, can it be done in 2008?

To begin with, let’s acknowledge that any path toward the Filibuster Proof 60 requires the Dems to hold onto all 12 seats they’re defending in 2008 - including a solid defense of the two potentially vulnerable seats (LA & SD). So, I'm going to begin with these assumptions: Landrieu finds a way to squeak through despite the Katrina-related loss of African American and a healthy Johnson returns to the Senate in the next few months, able and willing to undergo a re-election campaign.

A brief review of how the MSM "experts" view the 2008 cycle:

Washington Post "The Fix"

Cillizza's "fast track" scenario identified nine seats that could be competitive (keep in mind he’s writing in mid-April):

There are five obvious pickup opportunities for Democrats even at this early stage of the cycle: the open seat in Colorado as well as seats currently held by Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Norm Coleman (Minn.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), and John Sununu (N.H.).
>snip<
Right now four Republican Senators up for re-election are regularly mentioned as serious retirement possibilities: Sens. Pete Domenici (N.M.), Thad Cochran (Miss.), Chuck Hagel (Neb.) and John Warner (Va.).

He identifies three other potential pickups that might be available if things broke our way, a candidate stumbled, or the national wave in 2006 was just a precursor to a tsunami in 2008. He argues that Oklahoma (Inhofe), North Carolina (Dole), and Kentucky (McConnell) as outside possibilities.

CQ Politics Ratings

This week, CQ Politics came out with its new ratings for the 2008 races, and the surprise entrant among the five most vulnerable Republican seats was Liddy Dole(NC). The other four were CO, ME, NH, and MN, which appear on most every prognosticator’s list.

In addition to the top five, CQ lists nine additional seats that could potentially be in play, if the national anti-GOP sentiment continues to grow, incumbents retire or the Democrats field a strong candidate. They are: Alabama, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia

CQ rates seven states as SAFE GOP: Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, Wyoming (Enzi)

Cook Political Report

Lastly, the experts over at the Cook Political Report also come out this week with their own updated ratings, which are here. In addition to the Colorado seat rated as a “Toss-Up”, the experts there identify MN, ME (lean Rep) and then NH, NC, NM, and OK (likely Rep) as the seats most vulnerable to a Democratic pickup. At this point, they rate the remaining 15 seats as "Solidly Republican" - although retirements could shakeup that list.

Expert Forecasts on GOP "possible seats in play"

WaPo: twelve
CQ Politics: fourteen
Cook Political: eleven
(the figures above include possible retirements)

These experts are traditionally cautious in their forecasts, especially 18 months before an election. Since there is general agreement on the top tier (CO, NH, ME, MN, OR and perhaps NC), my goal is to move beyond the "low-hanging fruit" and determine where our energies might pay off with the additional four-five Senate seats needed to lift the Democrats over the filibuster hurdle.

COMING SUNDAY: The Vulnerability Score