NM-01: New USAGate Testimony Likely to Hurt Wilson

New Mexico's First Congressional District is a quintessential swing district. Heather Wilson, the GOP incumbent has never received more than 55% of the vote in her re-election campaigns. When revelations about her role in the USAGate attorney firings became public early in 2007, her hold on the seat through the 2008 election became more precarious. This is one of the top three Western targets for Democrats as they work to expand their House majority.

#2) NM-01: Wilson [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: ONE declared challenger (for more info about Martin Heinrich's campaign is here) with at least TWO more rumored to be considering making a run at unseating Wilson
• Incumbent Running? Probable (Wilson does not have a 2008 campaign website)


• NM-01 RACE DETAILS:

"Blue District"makes Wilson a perennial target: This is one of two Western districts (with WA-08) carried by Kerry in 04 currently held by a Republican. Dems hold a wide advantage in registration (46-35%) and is one of the truly swing districts in the West. Martin Heinrich's efforts to build a strong, well-financed campaign to oust Wilson can be found here. Former NM Attorney General (and 2006 NM-01 nominee) Patricia Madrid has not made a decision about the race.

USAGate exposes Wilson to ethics questions: Wilson's role in the firing of New Mexico US Attorney David Iglesias has resulted in a larger "bull's eye" on her back going into 2008 as witnessed by the DCCC's HeatherWilsonWatch.com website. Her political mentor, Sen. Pete Domenici, a long-time New Mexico institution, has watched his approval ratings plummet in the state since the phone calls became public. Wilson was once considered the 'heir apparent' to replace Domenici in the Senate upon his retirement. Now, both find themselves as politically wounded "damaged goods" in the state and many observers view a Wilson run for Senate as a non-starter. She will have an even more difficult time holding on to this seat.

Congressional Testimony Worsens Wilson's position: The political fortunes of both Wilson and Sen. Pete Domenici deteriorated when US Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty testified this past week before the House Judiciary Committee. McNulty expanded on his previous testimony, acknowledging that an Oct. 4, 2006, a phone call by Sen. Domenici (R-N.M.) complaining about the performance of then-New Mexico U.S. Attorney David Iglesias was a factor in his later decision to not raise objections over Iglesias’s name remaining on the firing list. He did not disclose the influence of Domenici’s call during his February testimony. This new testimony can't help Wilson's re-election chances in New Mexico, where the story has generated tons of media coverage.

PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

AZ-01: Dems Lining Up to Take on Renzi

If the Democrats heed Horace Greeley's advice in 2008 and "Go West" to expand their majorities in Congress, they start in Arizona's sprawling first district. An ethically challenged incumbent, a Democratic registration advantage in a state where the Dems picked up two seats in 2006 combine to make this district one of the top three Western targets.



#1) AZ-01: Renzi [wiki] (PVI R+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: THREE declared challengers with SEVEN more rumored to be considering entering the race
• POSSIBLE resignation, due to ethics/legal probes
• PRIMARY challenge possible (three rumored challengers)
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Possible






• AZ -01 RACE DETAILS:

Demographics Favor Dems: The sprawling First District is a race Dems should be able to win, as Democrats hold a registration advantage (40-35%) in the district and they held Renzi to 52% in his 2006 re-election effort, despite Renzi's huge financial advantage over Dem '06 nominee Ellen Simon.

Incumbent Corruption Top Issue: Renzi is the target of an ongoing FBI investigation. When the FBI raided his family business offices in late April, he resigned his seat on the House Intelligence Committee. Not surprisingly, Renzi makes CREW's list of 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress and it remains unclear as to whether he plans to run for another term. Regardless, local Democrats are lining up to challenge for this seat, including Winslow Mayor Allan Affeldt, Flagstaff attorney Howard Shanker, and Arizona journalist Mary Kim Titla have all declared their intention to run. In late May, CQPolitics provided a full roster of potential candidates including AZ state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, lawyer Jim Ledbetter, businessman George Cordova, and former Casa Grande Mayor Bob Mitchell.

Possible Resignation: Immediately after the FBI raids, some GOP leaders considered Renzi's troubles serious enough to lead some to urge Renzi resigning as their best hope to retain GOP control of the seat. These rumors have died down in recent weeks as the FEC cleared Renzi of some of the ethical questions hanging over his head. Back in April, the Phoenix Business Journal listed state Senate President Ken Bennett, state Sen. Tom O'Halleran and state Rep. Bill Konopnicki as possible Republican replacements if Renzi was forced from office. Two months later, it appears Renzi is determined to hold onto the seat and has dug his heals in. If Renzi does resign, the Arizona governor would call for a special election that would result in a primary within 75 - 100 days of his resignation.





PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

WA-08: Burner Likely to Get Primaried in 2008

If the Democrats are going to match their 2006 House gains in the West, the suburban Seattle Eighth District of Washington is one they will need to win. Darcy Burner, the 2006 nominee may face opposition from a former Republican in a primary. This week, local progressive bloggers are calling for Democrats to rally around Burner.

#3) WA-08: Reichert [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Darcy Burner is running again, and may face a primary challenge from 1-2 other Democrats
• Incumbent Running? Yes
  

A Blue District in the Pacific Northwest: This suburban Seattle District, along with NM-01 is one of two western districts Kerry won in 2004 currently held by the GOP. Darcy Burner came within 3 points of unseating Reichert in 2006. According to reports in the Seattle Times' political blog Postman on Politics, two challengers, state Sen. Rodney Tom and state Rep. Christopher Hurst are contemplating a primary challenge. Tom recently switched party ID, prior to his most recent election.

Progressives are supporting Burner: The Northwest Progressive Institute writes on June 22 that Burner is the more progressive candidate - and urges Democrats to reject Tom's possible candidacy - and makes a strong argument regarding Burner's chances in a rematch with Reichert. They have this to say about the possibility of a Hurst candidacy:

"As for Representative Chris Hurst, the other Democrat rumored to be mulling a possible run – he would be extraordinarily wise to decide against it.

Hurst, who was the prime sponsor of an unsuccessful bill last session to foolishly reenact Tim Eyman’s Initiative 747, is neither a true progressive nor a strategic thinker (if he was, he wouldn’t have worked so hard to give Tim Eyman and the right wing a free victory). Hurst will not be able to piece together the kind of campaign that Darcy has (and Tom won’t be able to either, for that matter).

The 8th, which has never been represented by a progressive Democrat, is ready to send one to Congress. It's turning blue, but it can't be taken for granted. It will only be won by a Democrat with candor, trust, and faith in progressive values. That candidate is Darcy Burner.

If the primary choice comes down to a recently converted former Republican and a progressive who nearly knocked off the incumbent in 2006, my hope is to see the progressive win the 2008 Democratic nomination.

PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

FL Jan 2008 Primary: State Dems vs. DNC

From today's St. Petersburg Times it appears the Sunshine State Democrats are not backing down in their battle with the DNC over the seating of Florida delegates at the party's convention next year in Denver. Under party rules the DNC could cut the state's delegation by 50%.

The state Dems find themselves in a bind created by the GOP-controlled state legislature, who moved the primary date for both parties to Jan 29, 2008, jumping ahead of the Feb 5th start date approved by the DNC in 2006.

One of the DNC committee members who voted in favor of the 2008 nominating process, Diane Glasser of Broward County, is quoted in the story, "I think it's atrocious, what they're doing to us. They can't disenfranchise our people."

The state GOP must be enjoying this.

According to the article, Democratic activists are up in arms over the possibility four million Florida Democratic voters could be denied a voice at the national convention. It's apparent the state Dems are playing hardball because they know they've got the power.

"The bottom line is, Florida is the largest swing state in the country and Democrats must compete in Florida from a position of strength," said U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler, D-Boca Raton.

If the Sunshine State Democrats get their way, how many other states will reconsider and leapfrog into January 2008? Michigan is already poised to jump. Could others who are further back - or even those scheduled for Feb 5th change? Regardless, the nominating calendar is lurching toward chaos.

Is this any way to select our nominee?

Cross-posted at MyDD.

NM-Sen - Dem to Declare Candidacy - Is He Saving Bill A Seat?

New Mexico PR consultant Joe Monahan breaks the news this morning about a Democrat jumping into the race to oust Pajama Pete Domenici from the Senate in 2008. Santa Fe real estate developer Don Wiviott is dedicating $400K to his election effort. According to Monahan, Wiviott's raising money online through Act Blue, but I couldn't locate a page for the nascent campaign.

Perhaps the most interesting question posed by Monahan is whether or not Wiviott, a friend of Gov. Bill Richardson, is simply acting as a placeholder for the Governor if he opts to make a Senate run if his presidential campaign sputters. Apparently, many NM Democrats attribute the lack of a high-name ID candidate in the race (thus far only environmentalist Jim Hannan is the only declared candidate - with AG Patricia Madrid and NM-03 Rep. Tom Udall still on the sidelines) to date is due to the idea that Bill may jump into the race, and sail back into Congress.

Monahan reports Wiviott announced his plans to run during this week's Take Back America confence and is in DC putting together an experienced campaign team. Check out Joe Monahan's New Mexico for all the details.

Will update with more info about Wiviott and the race to unseat Pajama Pete as soon as it's available.

NM-Sen wiki.

A Second Helping of Top Chef

Episode #2 - America's Top Chef Miami

It's Wednesday night, 10PM and I've settled in to feed my reality TV addiction. Guest Judge this week is Norman Van Aken.

Quickfire Challenge Round is about "Sunshine & Citrus." One thing is certain: the colors on these dishes are certainly going to be brighter than last week's rattlesnake and liver.

There are two contestants - Hung and Tre - who are already rubbing me the wrong way. They're exuding confidence and they've decided they're the two favorites in the competition. Hung reinforces my dislike when he says of the other contestants in the Quickfire round, "I looked around the kitchen and I saw some 'slummy' dishes."

Quickfire Results:
The Bottom Three - Sara, Sandy, and Micah (she won last itme)
Top Three - CJ, Hung and Tre (shit, maybe they are the favorites) and Hung wins, and he graciously says, "I was thrilled & I didn't expect anything less." The dislike deepens.

The Sunshine Theme continues with the Elimination Challenge - the thirteen chefs will be cooking at a champagne bbq party thrown by Lee Schrager., South Florida's premier party planner and caterer.

On the menu: Brian is doing his 'seafood sausage' - which raises eyebrows among the competitors. Tre, who plans a salmon dish steps up to vie with Hung for the title of most arrogant in Miami by declaring, "I'm a serious competitor and I don't lose."
Sandee is doing a lobster panchetta..hmmm, as a barbecue?

Meanwhile, Micah is grumpy- is it the loss in the quickfire? or does she miss her daughter? Hung, again winning sympathy points comments, "don't use your daughter as an excuse as to why you're crying." Can this guy really be this obnoxious? Or are the producers manipulating me into disliking this guy?

Sara is using scotch bonnets hot peppers that are making her hands burn. She's never prepared them before and is surprised at how spicy they are. Now, this doesn't seem like a wise move. Prep time ends, they're off to the posh digs to get some sleep before tomorrow's big competition.

The BBQ is poolside. They've got two hours to fire up the grill and prepare their dishes. Sara has never started a barbecue. These people are chefs?

Lead Judge Tom Caliccio stops by to check in on the contestants. The only one exuding confidence seems to be ....Hung.

Sandee doesn't seem to be using the BBQ - Chef Tom is worried she might be "trying to put lipstick on a pig." That's not a good sign.

And the guests show up. Micah seems to have impressed. Lia serves cilantro shrimp with couscous. CJ has a NY Steak with baked pineapple. Brian has done well with the seafood sausage, as witnessed by the sizeable crowd gathered around his grill. Tre- peach bbq glazed salmon. A woman response is "bleeped" out. Hmmm. Maybe he's not as talented as he believes he is? Howie's dish tastes like sawdust. Doesn't look good for Howie.

Hung serves flank steak with grilled corn salad. Joey throws a fit that Hung 'has stolen' his watermelon shooter drink.

The BBQ ends and we're heading to the Judge's Table.

During the commercial break, the interactive text question this week is announced: Who is this season's biggest drama queen? Micah, Joey, Hung or Howie. Well, if it was, "who do you like least?" I might consider voting.

Judge's Table - the consensus seems to be that all the food was good. Hung was having a blast today. Tre's wasn't impressive. Sandee's wasn't really BBQ.

Favorite's include Brian's seafood sausage. Sara's dish was "two perfect mouthfuls." Micah impresses, too. They're the Top Three. Who wins? Brian captures the idea of an upscale barbecue. He's relieved and excited after last week's finish in the bottom four.

The bottom four, facing elimination this week: Howie, Joey, Sandee and Tre.

Wait - Tre? Haven't we been told he's one of the favorites?

Why are they here?

Tre - my dish was salty. Chef Tom lets him know some guests thought it was either underseasoned or oversalty. No consistency in the dish.
Joey - Padma asks: "What were you thinking?" The dish was missing the 'upscale' component required in this challenge
Sandee - is shocked she's here. Tom tells here she didn't BBQ. The lobster only tasted like vanilla butter. It didn't meet the challenge.
Howie - maybe my dish was a little too simple. And the pork was dry. It wasn't my best day. I haven't cooked to my potential yet. My money is on Howie being sent home this week. He barely escaped last week.

Who should go: Joey names Howie. Howie lashes back. Catfight ensues in the kitchen. The profanities start flying.

Meanwhile, the judges center on the idea of the challenge - and upscale BBQ. Sandee didn't BBQ. Joey's dish was BBQ - it wasn't good. Howie shot himself in the foot tonight. What's the bigger sin? No BBQ? Or not upscale enough?

In the end, Padma utters the dreaded words, "Sandee, Please Pack Your Knives and Go."

Will Bush Shut Down the Federal Govt?

Apparently, someone at the White House swept the shredded paper off the Oval Office floor, taped the pieces together and discovered the President of the United States actually has a Constitutionally-approved power called the VETO.

The President, like any four-year old with a new toy, is mesmerized by this gadget and promises America he's going to play with it night and day. Saturday night, at a GOP fundraising dinner (I know, I'm incredulous, too, - apparently there are still people out there WILLING TO PAY MONEY to have dinner with this man??!!), Bush declared of his newly discovered magic marker with super powers:

"If the Democrats want to test us, that's why they give the president the veto. I'm looking forward to vetoing excessive spending, and I'm looking forward to having the United States Congress support my veto."

Being "The Deciderer" wasn't enough. He now wants to be the "VETOER."

The GOP's campaign to reign in Congress' out-of-control spending and pin the blame for the budget deficit on the Congressional Democrats has begun.

Democrats must have felt comfortable in the corner they got boxed into during the Iraq capitulation. Because here they go again. Might as well get comfie there, folks.

Could it be that someone over at the White House told Dubya the tale of how Bill Clinton's political fortunes rebounded following his budget showdown with Gingrich back in 1995? While there's a big difference between Clinton protecting popular programs from the conservative budget cutters and Bush reigning in pork and unecessary spending, both goals are popular with the general public.

Sadly, the Bush message "Congress is bad & the president is the public's last line of defense against wasteful spending" is an easy sell in a soundbite world. If you don't believe it can work, just look at how CNN is reporting the earmarks story. Democrats are suddenly responsible and it's resonating here among Kossacks.

The budget showdown is already underway. The White House has let it be known they are planning on vetoing the Homeland Security bill because the $37 billion passed by the House exceeds Bush's request by $2.1 billion. And the Dems don't have the votes to overide it.

That's just the beginning.

According to Robert Novak's June 18 article titled "Bush's Veto Strategy" Dubya has promised to whip out his handy-dandy new toy NINE times and VETO all but three of the dozen appropriations bills heading toward his desk this summer and fall.

Yes, he's planning on vetoing everything BUT Military Construction & Veterans Affairs; Legislative Branch; and Financial Services & General Govt. Novak writes (emphasis added):

Of the 12 appropriations bills for fiscal year 2008, only three will be signed by the president in the form shaped by the House. What's more, Bush correctly claimed he has the one-third plus one House votes needed to sustain these vetoes. The unpopular president is taking the offensive on fiscal responsibility. After bowing to Republican demands on earmarks, Democratic leadership face a battle of the budget.

Bush was the first president since John Quincy Adams not to exercise his veto power during a complete four-year term, even though the Republican-controlled Congress was on a spending spree.

--snip --

The first appropriations bill to be vetoed, Homeland Security, raises spending 14 percent over the previous year, compared with 7 percent requested by the administration. Bush also objects to this measure because it applies higher wages under the Davis-Bacon Act to workers covered by the bill.

--snip--

Bush next plans vetoes of the Energy-Water and Interior-Environment bills. The remaining vetoes would be on Labor, HHS, Education; Transportation and HUD; Commerce, Justice and Science; Agriculture and Rural Development; State and Foreign Operations (partly because the House bill omits the so-called Mexico City anti-abortion language) and Defense.

According to Novak, House Republicans led by Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) have secured the support of 147 members pledging to support the Bush vetoes. That's one more than they need.

GOP strategists believe reclaiming the mantle of financial responsibility is the quickest way to regain voters' support in critical swing states and is the winning strategy to retain the White House in 2008. Novak's article concludes by predicting the Bush veto assault "will trigger an epochal political struggle in the months ahead."

What makes me think there soon may come a day when we look back on Dubya's use of Signing Statements as the "good old days?"

Cross-posted at Daily Kos.