CA-04: FBI Targeting Doolittle Aides

Reports in the SF Chronicle about Rep. John Doolittle's former chief of staff cooperating with the FBI's investigation into the Republican's connections with imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff can't be good news. How long will it take the feds to make their case is an unanswered question and lingers over the race in the GOP-leaning district. From the AP report:

The aide, David Lopez, who was Doolittle's longtime chief of staff until 2005 and continued to work on his campaigns after that, has turned over campaign finance records to the Justice Department under subpoena, said his attorney, Bill Portanova.
A different former Doolittle staffer, Kevin Ring, who went on to work as a lobbyist with Abramoff, was already known to be under investigation in the wide-ranging probe. Portanova's comments marked the first public confirmation that prosecutors have been interviewing other former Doolittle aides.

Will Doolittle see the handwriting on the walls and decide to retire in 2008? Or, will he try to hang on, providing a very real chance for Democrat Charlie Brown to win this seat? Time will tell.

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CA-04: GOPers Want to Dump Doolittle, Too

If the Democrats hope to expand their House majority by winning the west, the four "ethically challenged" GOP incumbents (Doolittle, Lewis, Miller & Calvert) represent top targets in the Golden State. Doolittle's close ties to Abramoff came close to bringing him down in 2006. The Dems have a strong candidate in '06 nominee Charlie Brown readying for a rematch. The local GOP has begun it's own campaign to "Dump Doolittle." The Dems' best hope of seizing control of this seat is Doolittle getting the GOP nod, as an open seat contest would be much more difficult to win in this GOP-leaning district.

#4) CA-04: Doolittle [wiki] (PVI R+11) (RR = GOP Favored)*
Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Charlie Brown is full-speed ahead on fundraising and building a strong campaign team to steal this seat from the GOP
POSSIBLE retirement due to ongoing FBI probe into Doolittle's close ties to Jack Abramoff
INCUMBENT RUNNING? Probable

CA-04 RACE DETAILS:

ABRAMOFF CONNECTIONS PUT DOOLITTLE AT RISK: Rep. John Doolittle and his wife, Julie, are targets of an FBI investigation probing the couple's close relationship with imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff and also appears on CREW's list of 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress. In 2006, Doolittle nearly lost to Charlie Brown in this Republican district. The ongoing ethics and criminal investigations have adversely affected his fundraising in 2007. We will see just how much in a few weeks when Q2 fundraising numbers are made public.

LOCAL GOP DEMORALIZED AND FRACTURED: Local media this week ran stories about the splintering of the GOP in Nevada County, which represented 15% of the 2006 district vote total and the one county in the district where Brown outpolled Doolittle (23,224 to 17,005). Former GOP committee member John Vandenberg, the leader of the breakaway group described response to his fundraising efforts as "lackluster."

DOOLITTLE TALKING TOUGH ON WAR???: Another indication as to how endangered Doolittle is, the The Union of Grass Valley ran an article Thursday with the headline "Doolittle: Congress to get tough on Iraq War" in which the congressman is reported as moving to distance himself from the president and the unpopular Iraq War. Doolittle seems to be looking toward a general election contest against Brown, which is good news for Dems targeting this seat as a pickup.

PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE