Defenders of Wildlife UPDATE (w/video)

This was posted last week. Now, the video is available.

According to the press release announcing the "Heads in the Sands" campaign, the Defenders of Wildlife Action Council provides the deails of the recently launched integrated radio and internet ad campaign targeting Rep. John Doolittle (CA-04), Ken Calvert, (CA-44), Steve Pearce (NM-02), Rick Renzi (AZ-01) and Dean Heller (NV-02).

"Americans want action now on global warming,” said Defenders Action Fund President Rodger Schlickeisen. “But extreme anti-environmentalists in Congress, epitomized by these five, continue to have their heads stuck in the sand on energy policy while taking money from big oil and polluters. We’re launching the ‘Heads in the Sand’ campaign to hold these members accountable to their constituents.”

If the wildlife group replicates its 2006 results, all five should be placed on the "Endangered Species List."

In addition to the high-profile and coordinated campaign against Pombo, "America's #1 Wildlife Villain," the Action Fund targeted 19 more races in the midterm elections as part of their Conservation Majority Project. They won in 14 of the 20 races, helping defeat previously entrenched incumbents in every region of the country.

So, these Western lawmakers should be afraid. Very afraid.

Renzi and Doolittle are targets of ethical and legal investigations, so the added muscle of a coordinated green effort may be the momentum to push them from office. Calvert, who replaced Doolittle on the Appropriations Committee in May, joins Renzi and Doolittle on CREW's list of the 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress.

Heller is a freshman who the NRCC has acknowledged as one of their most vulnerable members, and is included in the ROMP (Regain Our Majority Program). And Pearce's southern New Mexico district has a significant Dem voter registration advantage (48-36%). All of these districts represent an aggressive expansion of the Democratic playing field in our efforts to expand the House Democratic Majority.

The theme of the campaign is "Heads in the Sand" ~ the animated ads have a "Pixar-feeling." This is the one targeting Doolittle:



From the video: "The rising sea stuff, that's like the theory of gravity."

"Could some of you grown-ups talk to this guy? Tell John Doolittle it's time to get his head out of the sand. We need action on global warming now."

To check out the two recent "Global Warming" PSAs created by Defenders of Wildlife, click here.

Race Tracker wikis: AZ-01, CA-04, CA-44, NV-02, NM-02

CA-04: FBI Targeting Doolittle Aides

Reports in the SF Chronicle about Rep. John Doolittle's former chief of staff cooperating with the FBI's investigation into the Republican's connections with imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff can't be good news. How long will it take the feds to make their case is an unanswered question and lingers over the race in the GOP-leaning district. From the AP report:

The aide, David Lopez, who was Doolittle's longtime chief of staff until 2005 and continued to work on his campaigns after that, has turned over campaign finance records to the Justice Department under subpoena, said his attorney, Bill Portanova.
A different former Doolittle staffer, Kevin Ring, who went on to work as a lobbyist with Abramoff, was already known to be under investigation in the wide-ranging probe. Portanova's comments marked the first public confirmation that prosecutors have been interviewing other former Doolittle aides.

Will Doolittle see the handwriting on the walls and decide to retire in 2008? Or, will he try to hang on, providing a very real chance for Democrat Charlie Brown to win this seat? Time will tell.

Help Dump Doolittle by donating here.
CA-04 racetracker wiki.

Weekly Western Roundup - Dems Eager to Oust GOP Incumbents

The Democratic Party's historic 2006 midterm election win in which the Dems achieved control of both the House and Senate was built primarily on victories in the Northeast and Midwest. Only 9 of the 30 House seats and 3 of the 6 Senate seats won were west of the Mississippi.

The Democratic wave that swept out of the Atlantic across New England and the Midwest ran out of steam as it lapped up against the foothills of the Front Range, with the Dems only scoring one Senate (Tester in Montana) and four House (AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CO-07) pickups on the Pacific side of the Continental Divide. (The four seat total requires me to move the Divide a couple of hundred miles east, as CO-07 technically sits on the eastern side of the divide.) Can Democrats score more wins by looking West in 2008? If they aim to expand their House majority, they will need to heed Horace Greeley and "Go West." For the purpose of this Weekly Western Roundup, I'll be looking at developments in House races west of (and including) Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico.

Will The West Be Fertile Ground for 2008 Democratic House Wins?

With only one New England GOP representative remaining in the House and a half dozen truly vulnerable GOP targets in the Midwest, the Democrats needs to identify and target vulnerable Western lawmakers if we wish to significantly expand our majorities in Congress. Timothy Egan, in a 6/21/08 NY Times opinion piece titled, "Republicans Losing the West,"(access requires paid subscription) discusses the GOP's loosening grasp on a region long viewed as solidly Red. Egan observes the GOP's harsh rhetoric on immigration has changed the political balance in the region and quotes AZ Dem Chair David Waid, “Arizona is in play like never before. And the Republicans are literally handing it to us.”

Can Democrats take advantage of this opportunity? Where are they best poised to pick-up GOP-held seats in 2008? Fifteen months before election day, the Democrats are fielding strong and diverse candidates in the districts currently held by the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. In 2008, Democrats should be in a position to at least match the four Western seats picked up in 2006. This first weekly roundup reviews the seven races with the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. In future updates, I'll look at races where Democrats are fielding strong challenges to better-entrenched incumbents.

Are Primaries Good for the Party?

In five to the seven races examined here, Democrats are likely to see multiple candidates vying for the nomination. This forces the question - does a primary battle strengthen or weaken a candidate entering a general election? The argument can be made that a bloody and expensive primary battle results in the eventual nominee emerging as wounded and damaged for a general election campaign.

However, there are many who will argue that a primary can increase a candidate's name recognition and provides the opportunity for a candidate to fine-tune their policy positions and anticipate the potential campaign attacks they may face in the general election. Of course, I'm assuming the campaigns refrain from personal attacks and keep the primary campaign's focus on the issues confronting the district and the nation. An issues-driven primary provides the party's progressives, moderates and conservatives to identify the best candidate for the particular district. As such, the candidate that emerges is the one most likely to win and claim a mandate from the people they represent.

I personally hope to see more progressive candidates win in the general. I believe a strong intraparty debate between the various groups within the party during the primary is the way to develop a progressive consensus from which national Democrats can lead.

The Consensus Top Targets - Winning the West

The experts are pretty much in agreement on the 2008 battleground districts. The Rothenberg Political Report House ratings identifies 24 GOP-held seats as potentially in play. Seven of these are in the West. Electoral-vote.com's 2008 Hot House Races roster is similar. Both include districts where Democratic incumbents will likely face strong challenges and where Dems will be playing defense in '08 (AZ-05, CA-11). Future editions of this Weekly Update will include developments in those races as well.

I don't view this list as comprehensive. There are certainly other Western districts that are possible pickups. In coming weeks, as we get Q2 fundraising results and see where the DCCC's recruiting efforts have been targeted, this list will likely grow. In my opinion, there should be 12-20 Western seats the Dems make a strong run at during this cycle. As the field expands, I'll update the target list.

The Seven Western Targets (ranked in order of most-to-least vulnerable):

#1) ARIZONA 01 - Renzi
#2) NEW MEXICO 01 - Wilson
#3) WASHINGTON 08 - Reichert
#4) CALIFORNIA 04 - Doolittle
#5) NEVADA 03 - Porter
#6) COLORADO 04 - Musgrave
#7) WYOMING AL - Cubin

#1) AZ-01: Renzi [wiki] (PVI R+2)* (RR = Lean GOP)**

• Democratic Line-Up: THREE declared challengers with SEVEN more rumored to be considering entering the race
• POSSIBLE resignation, due to ethics/legal probes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Yes
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Possible
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

For more see "AZ-01: Dems Lining Up to Take on Renzi"

#2) NM-01: Wilson [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: ONE declared challenger (for more info about Martin Heinrich's campaign is here) with at least TWO more rumored to be considering making a run at unseating Wilson
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable
• Incumbent Running? Probable (Wilson does not have a 2008 campaign website)
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

For more details on NM-01 see: "NM-01: New USAGate Testimony Likely to Hurt Wilson"

#3) WA-08: Reichert [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Darcy Burner is running again, and may face a primary challenge from 1-2 other Democrats
• Incumbent Running? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details see "WA-08: Burner Likely to Get Primaried in 2008"

#4) CA-04: Doolittle [wiki] (PVI R+11) (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Charlie Brown is full-speed ahead on fundraising and building a strong campaign team to steal this seat from the GOP
• POSSIBLE retirement due to ongoing FBI probe into Doolittle's close ties to Jack Abramoff
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details see "CA-04: GOPers Want to Dump Doolittle, Too"

#5) NV-03: Porter [wiki] (PVI D+1) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: TWO declared challengers, FOUR considering entering, 2006 Dem Gov Nominee Dina Titus has declined to run
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details on NV-03 race see "NV-o3: What's Happening in Vegas?"

#6) CO-04: Musgrave [wiki] (PVI R+9) (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Angie Paccione is running again and is likely to face a primary challenge from 2-3 potential candidates.
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MINIMAL

For more details on the CO-04 race see "CO-04: Paccione Seeks Netroots Support - She Deserves It" and "CO-04: Angie & Eidsness Visit the Blogosphere"

#7) WY-AL: Cubin [wiki] (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up:
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Possible
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Unlikely
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: LOW

For more details on the WY-AL race see "WY-AL: Does the New Sen. Barrasso Affect the Dynamics of the House Race?" (to be posted 6/25)

Are there additional House pick-up opportunities west of the Continental Divide? Certainly. In addition to Doolittle, there are three more CA GOP incumbents (as well as Alaska Rep Don Young) with ethical clouds hanging over their heads. But, picking off these, or other firmly entrenched incumbents across the West will require well-financed candidates with a strong message. The time to lay the foundation for victory in November 2008 is now.

*What's "PVI"? It's the Cook Partisan Voting Index, developed by Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. A full explanation can be found here.

**A note about the Rothenberg Ratings - Rothenberg rates on the following spectrum: Safe Dem, Favored Dem, Lean Dem, Toss-Up/Tilt Dem, Pure Toss-Up, Toss-Up/Tilt GOP, Lean GOP, Favored GOP, Safe GOP. The current ratings list 24 GOP held seats are currently not rated as "Safe GOP." Each race discussed above includes an "RR" rating based on these categories.

CA-04: GOPers Want to Dump Doolittle, Too

If the Democrats hope to expand their House majority by winning the west, the four "ethically challenged" GOP incumbents (Doolittle, Lewis, Miller & Calvert) represent top targets in the Golden State. Doolittle's close ties to Abramoff came close to bringing him down in 2006. The Dems have a strong candidate in '06 nominee Charlie Brown readying for a rematch. The local GOP has begun it's own campaign to "Dump Doolittle." The Dems' best hope of seizing control of this seat is Doolittle getting the GOP nod, as an open seat contest would be much more difficult to win in this GOP-leaning district.

#4) CA-04: Doolittle [wiki] (PVI R+11) (RR = GOP Favored)*
Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Charlie Brown is full-speed ahead on fundraising and building a strong campaign team to steal this seat from the GOP
POSSIBLE retirement due to ongoing FBI probe into Doolittle's close ties to Jack Abramoff
INCUMBENT RUNNING? Probable

CA-04 RACE DETAILS:

ABRAMOFF CONNECTIONS PUT DOOLITTLE AT RISK: Rep. John Doolittle and his wife, Julie, are targets of an FBI investigation probing the couple's close relationship with imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff and also appears on CREW's list of 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress. In 2006, Doolittle nearly lost to Charlie Brown in this Republican district. The ongoing ethics and criminal investigations have adversely affected his fundraising in 2007. We will see just how much in a few weeks when Q2 fundraising numbers are made public.

LOCAL GOP DEMORALIZED AND FRACTURED: Local media this week ran stories about the splintering of the GOP in Nevada County, which represented 15% of the 2006 district vote total and the one county in the district where Brown outpolled Doolittle (23,224 to 17,005). Former GOP committee member John Vandenberg, the leader of the breakaway group described response to his fundraising efforts as "lackluster."

DOOLITTLE TALKING TOUGH ON WAR???: Another indication as to how endangered Doolittle is, the The Union of Grass Valley ran an article Thursday with the headline "Doolittle: Congress to get tough on Iraq War" in which the congressman is reported as moving to distance himself from the president and the unpopular Iraq War. Doolittle seems to be looking toward a general election contest against Brown, which is good news for Dems targeting this seat as a pickup.

PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

Wildlife Group Declares Open Season on 5 GOP Lawmakers

Fresh off of their victorious campaign to oust conservative lawmaker Rep. Richard Pombo (CA-11) in the 2006 midterms, the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund has placed targets on the back of five more Western Members of Congress, citing their positions on global warming.

According to the AP, the organization has launched a radio and internet ad campaign this week targeting Rep. John Doolittle (CA-04), Ken Calvert, (CA-44), Steve Pearce (NM-02), Rick Renzi (AZ-01) and Dean Heller (NV-02).

"We're looking to send a clear message that the American people won't tolerate representatives who continue to favor big polluters and their special interests," Defenders action fund president Rodger Schlickeisen said.

If the wildlife group replicates its 2006 results, all five should be placed on the "Endangered Species List."

In addition to the high-profile and coordinated campaign against Pombo, "America's #1 Wildlife Villain," the Action Fund targeted 19 more races in the midterm elections as part of their Conservation Majority Project. They won in 14 of the 20 races, helping defeat previously entrenched incumbents in every region of the country.

So, these Western lawmakers should be afraid. Very afraid.

Renzi and Doolittle are targets of ethical and legal investigations; the added muscle of a coordinated green effort may be the momentum to push them from office.

While the AP report was unclear as to whether the internet ads would contain video, if they do, I'll update the post once I locate. In the meantime, here's one of the ads from the series attacking Pombo during last year's campaign:





To check out the two recent "Global Warming" PSAs created by Defenders of Wildlife, click here.