Chrispy's Political Prattle for Friday the 13th

A "Baker's Dozen" quick hits list from around the West (and more!) on Jason Voorhees' favorite day:

• WA-08: Recent GOP-convert Rodney Tom announced he will be a Dem candidate in the suburban Seattle district of GOP Rep. Dave Reichert. 2006 Dem nominee is hard at work raising money and working the netroots (she'll be liveblogging at FireDogLake on Saturday morning -11AM PDT, 2PM EDT)
• OR-Sen: In the "Revised Comments" section, Sen. Gordon Smith - facing re-election in 08, told Fox News the other day that his December 2006 observation about the Iraq War as "criminal" was inaccurate. He now describes the war as "Insane" - will any of his GOP colleagues agree?
• Show Me the Money: How important are the Q2 fundraising numbers? Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg has an interesting article "Historical Review of Second Quarter Fundraising." Does money at this stage of the cycle predict who wins? Hint: Howard Dean.
• Iraq - the Endgame: Craig Crawford @ CQPolitics.com points out Thursday's House vote (223-201) represents a molasses-like pace movement away from the president's Iraq surge. Needing another 67 votes to override any presidential veto means the Dems won't get enough support until summer 2008 if the current pace continues.
• MT-Sen: From the "Majority Matters" file: Montana Sen. Max Baucus (and Finance Committee Chairman) reports his fundraising total for Q2 2007 has doubled over the same period back in 2001. His CoH amount ($4.3 million) is a considerable sum, particularly in a state the size of Montana. His broad based support across the state helps explain why the GOP has only put Loony Mike Lange as an opponent to the five-term senator.
• NM-01 & ID-01: The trend of Iraq War veterans jumping into politics continues - Democrat Byron Paez has tossed his hat in the ring in New Mexico. This comes a week after Republican Matt Salisbury announced his primary challenge to freshman GOP Rep. Bill Sali.
• AZ-03: The "gut-check" terror alarm: Arizona GOP Rep. John Shadegg apparently shares the same gastro-intestinal pyschic abilities as Homeland Secretary Chertoff. Since we know the administration doesn't need factual intelligence to go to war, does it surprise anyone that the person responsible for monitoring terror threats relies on his tummy?
• GOP House Outlook: NRCC Chairman Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) is already 'spinning' his party's 2008 House election prospects and you know they're worried when he says, "Nobody gets two 2006s in a row," Cole said. He pointed out that the 202 seats Republicans currently occupy are ten seats better than President Reagan held "on his best day."
• Rudy's Rough Ride: The Giuliani campaign's foundation seems to be crumbling with each passing news cycle. The people that know him best - the firefighters and the voters of New York City don't seem to like him. How long will it be until Rudy's front-running campaign follows McCain into the second tier of GOP contenders.
• NV-03: Swing State reports the DCCC may have finally suceeded in recruiting a top tier challenger to Vegas area GOP Rep. Jon Porter in Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas.
• CA-44: What is it with California's GOP delegation? A grand jury ruled GOP Rep. Ken Calvert and two business partners bought and sold real estate in violation of state regulations. The Hill reports the decision will not affect Calvert's re-election plans, nor cause him to lose his seat on the powerful House Appropriations Committee.
• WA-GOV: Christine Gregoire, the Democrat narrowly elected over Dino Rossi in 2004, is credited by Forbes Magazine with making Washington State one of the top five business-friendly states in US, undercutting the GOP argument that Democratic regulations hinder economic activity. It remains unclear whether Rossi will mount a challenge in 2008 (the state Dems argue he's declared and then undeclared already). The news this week that an investigation has been launched into whether his non-profit Forward Washington organization violates state law means a rematch would likely be a 'no-holds barred' contest between the two parties.
• From deep in the heart of BLUE TEXAS, one last picture, in memory of Lady Bird.
  
  

NV-03: DCCC Launching Radio Ads Against Porter

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is showing just how serious they are about winning Rep. Jon Porter's Las Vegas area seat in the 2008 elections. Seventeen months before election day (and without a top tier Democratic challenger yet to jump into the race), the DCCC has launched a radio ad campaign targeting Porter's votes on veteran's benefits. Porter is one of seven GOP lawmakers included in this campaign timed to correspond to the July 4th celebrations.

The DCCC states, "Porter voted to cut funding for veterans by $6 billion, while also opposing equipment repair and quality of life enhancements for troops." For full audio of the radio ad can be found here: Fight Back for Veterans.

The Las Vegas Journal Review provides details and Porter's reaction:

The ads are scheduled to be broadcast on KXNT-AM and KWNR-FM. Porter and six other Republicans are being hit with the radio ads, while seven other Republicans are being blasted through automated phone calls and e-mails.

Porter spokesman Matt Leffingwell called the ads misleading. While Porter voted against an amendment to give $1,500 bonuses to soldiers serving in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2003, he later voted for a $5,500 pay increase for military personnel, Leffingwell said.

Leffingwell noted that all the votes referred to in the ads occurred between 2003 and 2006 and were used against him in last year's campaign. "We're glad the Democrats believe in recycling, but recycling the same old talking points is disingenuous," he said.

Porter in 2006 defeated his Democratic challenger, first-time candidate Tessa Hafen, by fewer than 4,000 votes. Leffingwell said the radio ads were a good sign because they showed that Democrats know it will be difficult to defeat Porter.

"They obviously feel that the congressman knows how to run tough elections, and they have to start early in our district," Leffingwell said.

That's an interesting spin from the Porter people. Campaign committees don't choose to jump into a race this early if they think the incumbent is safe, Mr. Leffingwell. Usually, they invest in the races where the incumbent if vulnerable. Porter barely scraped by in 2006, beating Dem nominee Tessa Hafen by only 4000 votes. It looks like the D-trip is aiming to close the gap and win this district in 2008.

And, the video from the DCCC:

Weekly Western Roundup - Dems Eager to Oust GOP Incumbents

The Democratic Party's historic 2006 midterm election win in which the Dems achieved control of both the House and Senate was built primarily on victories in the Northeast and Midwest. Only 9 of the 30 House seats and 3 of the 6 Senate seats won were west of the Mississippi.

The Democratic wave that swept out of the Atlantic across New England and the Midwest ran out of steam as it lapped up against the foothills of the Front Range, with the Dems only scoring one Senate (Tester in Montana) and four House (AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CO-07) pickups on the Pacific side of the Continental Divide. (The four seat total requires me to move the Divide a couple of hundred miles east, as CO-07 technically sits on the eastern side of the divide.) Can Democrats score more wins by looking West in 2008? If they aim to expand their House majority, they will need to heed Horace Greeley and "Go West." For the purpose of this Weekly Western Roundup, I'll be looking at developments in House races west of (and including) Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico.

Will The West Be Fertile Ground for 2008 Democratic House Wins?

With only one New England GOP representative remaining in the House and a half dozen truly vulnerable GOP targets in the Midwest, the Democrats needs to identify and target vulnerable Western lawmakers if we wish to significantly expand our majorities in Congress. Timothy Egan, in a 6/21/08 NY Times opinion piece titled, "Republicans Losing the West,"(access requires paid subscription) discusses the GOP's loosening grasp on a region long viewed as solidly Red. Egan observes the GOP's harsh rhetoric on immigration has changed the political balance in the region and quotes AZ Dem Chair David Waid, “Arizona is in play like never before. And the Republicans are literally handing it to us.”

Can Democrats take advantage of this opportunity? Where are they best poised to pick-up GOP-held seats in 2008? Fifteen months before election day, the Democrats are fielding strong and diverse candidates in the districts currently held by the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. In 2008, Democrats should be in a position to at least match the four Western seats picked up in 2006. This first weekly roundup reviews the seven races with the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. In future updates, I'll look at races where Democrats are fielding strong challenges to better-entrenched incumbents.

Are Primaries Good for the Party?

In five to the seven races examined here, Democrats are likely to see multiple candidates vying for the nomination. This forces the question - does a primary battle strengthen or weaken a candidate entering a general election? The argument can be made that a bloody and expensive primary battle results in the eventual nominee emerging as wounded and damaged for a general election campaign.

However, there are many who will argue that a primary can increase a candidate's name recognition and provides the opportunity for a candidate to fine-tune their policy positions and anticipate the potential campaign attacks they may face in the general election. Of course, I'm assuming the campaigns refrain from personal attacks and keep the primary campaign's focus on the issues confronting the district and the nation. An issues-driven primary provides the party's progressives, moderates and conservatives to identify the best candidate for the particular district. As such, the candidate that emerges is the one most likely to win and claim a mandate from the people they represent.

I personally hope to see more progressive candidates win in the general. I believe a strong intraparty debate between the various groups within the party during the primary is the way to develop a progressive consensus from which national Democrats can lead.

The Consensus Top Targets - Winning the West

The experts are pretty much in agreement on the 2008 battleground districts. The Rothenberg Political Report House ratings identifies 24 GOP-held seats as potentially in play. Seven of these are in the West. Electoral-vote.com's 2008 Hot House Races roster is similar. Both include districts where Democratic incumbents will likely face strong challenges and where Dems will be playing defense in '08 (AZ-05, CA-11). Future editions of this Weekly Update will include developments in those races as well.

I don't view this list as comprehensive. There are certainly other Western districts that are possible pickups. In coming weeks, as we get Q2 fundraising results and see where the DCCC's recruiting efforts have been targeted, this list will likely grow. In my opinion, there should be 12-20 Western seats the Dems make a strong run at during this cycle. As the field expands, I'll update the target list.

The Seven Western Targets (ranked in order of most-to-least vulnerable):

#1) ARIZONA 01 - Renzi
#2) NEW MEXICO 01 - Wilson
#3) WASHINGTON 08 - Reichert
#4) CALIFORNIA 04 - Doolittle
#5) NEVADA 03 - Porter
#6) COLORADO 04 - Musgrave
#7) WYOMING AL - Cubin

#1) AZ-01: Renzi [wiki] (PVI R+2)* (RR = Lean GOP)**

• Democratic Line-Up: THREE declared challengers with SEVEN more rumored to be considering entering the race
• POSSIBLE resignation, due to ethics/legal probes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Yes
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Possible
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

For more see "AZ-01: Dems Lining Up to Take on Renzi"

#2) NM-01: Wilson [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: ONE declared challenger (for more info about Martin Heinrich's campaign is here) with at least TWO more rumored to be considering making a run at unseating Wilson
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable
• Incumbent Running? Probable (Wilson does not have a 2008 campaign website)
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

For more details on NM-01 see: "NM-01: New USAGate Testimony Likely to Hurt Wilson"

#3) WA-08: Reichert [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Darcy Burner is running again, and may face a primary challenge from 1-2 other Democrats
• Incumbent Running? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details see "WA-08: Burner Likely to Get Primaried in 2008"

#4) CA-04: Doolittle [wiki] (PVI R+11) (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Charlie Brown is full-speed ahead on fundraising and building a strong campaign team to steal this seat from the GOP
• POSSIBLE retirement due to ongoing FBI probe into Doolittle's close ties to Jack Abramoff
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details see "CA-04: GOPers Want to Dump Doolittle, Too"

#5) NV-03: Porter [wiki] (PVI D+1) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: TWO declared challengers, FOUR considering entering, 2006 Dem Gov Nominee Dina Titus has declined to run
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details on NV-03 race see "NV-o3: What's Happening in Vegas?"

#6) CO-04: Musgrave [wiki] (PVI R+9) (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Angie Paccione is running again and is likely to face a primary challenge from 2-3 potential candidates.
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MINIMAL

For more details on the CO-04 race see "CO-04: Paccione Seeks Netroots Support - She Deserves It" and "CO-04: Angie & Eidsness Visit the Blogosphere"

#7) WY-AL: Cubin [wiki] (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up:
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Possible
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Unlikely
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: LOW

For more details on the WY-AL race see "WY-AL: Does the New Sen. Barrasso Affect the Dynamics of the House Race?" (to be posted 6/25)

Are there additional House pick-up opportunities west of the Continental Divide? Certainly. In addition to Doolittle, there are three more CA GOP incumbents (as well as Alaska Rep Don Young) with ethical clouds hanging over their heads. But, picking off these, or other firmly entrenched incumbents across the West will require well-financed candidates with a strong message. The time to lay the foundation for victory in November 2008 is now.

*What's "PVI"? It's the Cook Partisan Voting Index, developed by Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. A full explanation can be found here.

**A note about the Rothenberg Ratings - Rothenberg rates on the following spectrum: Safe Dem, Favored Dem, Lean Dem, Toss-Up/Tilt Dem, Pure Toss-Up, Toss-Up/Tilt GOP, Lean GOP, Favored GOP, Safe GOP. The current ratings list 24 GOP held seats are currently not rated as "Safe GOP." Each race discussed above includes an "RR" rating based on these categories.

NV-03: What's Happening in Vegas

When national Democrats pushed to move Nevada up to the front of the presidential nominating process, they did so for two reasons:

Nevada demographics: The large Latino population and strong union presence were more representative of the national Democratic party than Iowa and New Hampshire and would provide a more accurate gauge of the candidates' appeal to the broader electorate

Turn Nevada Blue: The move would increase chances of Democratic pickups in down-ballot contests. Nevada's Third Congressional District - a truly swing district - is where we will see if this strategy pays off in 2008.

#5) NV-03: Porter [wiki] (PVI D+1) (RR = Lean GOP)*
Democratic Line-Up: TWO declared challengers, FOUR considering entering, 2006 Dem Gov Nominee Dina Titus has declined to run
PRIMARY CONTEST: Likely
INCUMBENT RUNNING: Yes

NV-03 RACE DETAILS:

The Las Vegas Review Journal reports significant comings and goings in the Democratic field in this Vegas-area district. 2006 Gubernatorial nominee and state Sen. Dina Titus has decided to not make a run for the nomination (she's heading up Hillary's outreach efforts to western women). The race has attracted accountant Andrew Martin and Barry Martin, who finished second in the 2006 Dem primary despite spending time in prison in the early 1990s. State Sen. Maggie Carlton, a waitress at Treasure Island, is considering a run as is NV-01 Rep. Shelley Berkley's husband, Dr. Larry Lehrner. It looks like it the primary field will be colorful and varied. This is a winnable seat, as the LVRJ reports Rep. Porter is viewed favorably by only 37% of district voters, according to an April poll.