Chrispy's Political Prattle for Friday the 13th

A "Baker's Dozen" quick hits list from around the West (and more!) on Jason Voorhees' favorite day:

• WA-08: Recent GOP-convert Rodney Tom announced he will be a Dem candidate in the suburban Seattle district of GOP Rep. Dave Reichert. 2006 Dem nominee is hard at work raising money and working the netroots (she'll be liveblogging at FireDogLake on Saturday morning -11AM PDT, 2PM EDT)
• OR-Sen: In the "Revised Comments" section, Sen. Gordon Smith - facing re-election in 08, told Fox News the other day that his December 2006 observation about the Iraq War as "criminal" was inaccurate. He now describes the war as "Insane" - will any of his GOP colleagues agree?
• Show Me the Money: How important are the Q2 fundraising numbers? Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg has an interesting article "Historical Review of Second Quarter Fundraising." Does money at this stage of the cycle predict who wins? Hint: Howard Dean.
• Iraq - the Endgame: Craig Crawford @ CQPolitics.com points out Thursday's House vote (223-201) represents a molasses-like pace movement away from the president's Iraq surge. Needing another 67 votes to override any presidential veto means the Dems won't get enough support until summer 2008 if the current pace continues.
• MT-Sen: From the "Majority Matters" file: Montana Sen. Max Baucus (and Finance Committee Chairman) reports his fundraising total for Q2 2007 has doubled over the same period back in 2001. His CoH amount ($4.3 million) is a considerable sum, particularly in a state the size of Montana. His broad based support across the state helps explain why the GOP has only put Loony Mike Lange as an opponent to the five-term senator.
• NM-01 & ID-01: The trend of Iraq War veterans jumping into politics continues - Democrat Byron Paez has tossed his hat in the ring in New Mexico. This comes a week after Republican Matt Salisbury announced his primary challenge to freshman GOP Rep. Bill Sali.
• AZ-03: The "gut-check" terror alarm: Arizona GOP Rep. John Shadegg apparently shares the same gastro-intestinal pyschic abilities as Homeland Secretary Chertoff. Since we know the administration doesn't need factual intelligence to go to war, does it surprise anyone that the person responsible for monitoring terror threats relies on his tummy?
• GOP House Outlook: NRCC Chairman Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) is already 'spinning' his party's 2008 House election prospects and you know they're worried when he says, "Nobody gets two 2006s in a row," Cole said. He pointed out that the 202 seats Republicans currently occupy are ten seats better than President Reagan held "on his best day."
• Rudy's Rough Ride: The Giuliani campaign's foundation seems to be crumbling with each passing news cycle. The people that know him best - the firefighters and the voters of New York City don't seem to like him. How long will it be until Rudy's front-running campaign follows McCain into the second tier of GOP contenders.
• NV-03: Swing State reports the DCCC may have finally suceeded in recruiting a top tier challenger to Vegas area GOP Rep. Jon Porter in Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas.
• CA-44: What is it with California's GOP delegation? A grand jury ruled GOP Rep. Ken Calvert and two business partners bought and sold real estate in violation of state regulations. The Hill reports the decision will not affect Calvert's re-election plans, nor cause him to lose his seat on the powerful House Appropriations Committee.
• WA-GOV: Christine Gregoire, the Democrat narrowly elected over Dino Rossi in 2004, is credited by Forbes Magazine with making Washington State one of the top five business-friendly states in US, undercutting the GOP argument that Democratic regulations hinder economic activity. It remains unclear whether Rossi will mount a challenge in 2008 (the state Dems argue he's declared and then undeclared already). The news this week that an investigation has been launched into whether his non-profit Forward Washington organization violates state law means a rematch would likely be a 'no-holds barred' contest between the two parties.
• From deep in the heart of BLUE TEXAS, one last picture, in memory of Lady Bird.
  
  

OR-Sen: Time for Mr. Smith to Leave Washington

Sen. Gordon Smith's recent approval numbers from Survey USA explain why the Oregon Republican is on every political observer's "Endangered Incumbent List" for the 2008 Senate campaign cycle.

Its important to note those dismal numbers were released BEFORE a recent spate of bad news for Gordo.

Recent developments have conspired against Smith successfully navigating his long-anticipated move toward the political center for the 2008 re-election effort. His meticulously manufactured moderate image (more on that a bit later) is fraying at an inopportune time. His close ties to the Dubya, Dick & Karl political machine are becoming a bigger liability with each passing week.

First, the WaPo resurrected the Klamath River salmon kill in their recent expose on FourthBranch Cheney. The water diversion (implemented behind the scenes by Cheney & Rove) resulted in the largest fish kill in US history. The devastating effects of the politically motivated diversion of water to aid ranchers and farmers still reverberate along the West Coast. The salmon fishery north of San Francisco has been practically shut down the past two summers. The economic and environmental devastation of the GOP 'win at all costs' philosophy and the revelations of Smith's role puts a serious dent in his carefully crafted moderate 'non-partisan' image.

Local Oregon blogs (Blue Oregon and Loaded Orygun) have seized on the reemergence of the story - and while the local media appears to be reluctant to report the details of Smith's role, the bloggers have dug in and look to be in it for the long haul. Loaded Orygun has filed FOIA requests to determine the extent of Smith's participation in the Rove/Cheney Klamath River Re-Election Coalition.

Public association with the politically radioactive FourthBranch Cheney would hurt in almost any state these days, but in Blue Oregon it could be devastating.

The War in Iraq - and Smith's inability to match his actions to his words could hinder his reelection effort. Smith made national headlines last December when he denounced the Bush/Cheney post-election Iraq troop surge, calling the strategy "criminal."

DECEMBER 2006: I, for one, am at the end of my rope when it comes to supporting a policy that has our soldiers patrolling the same streets in the same way being blown up by the same bombs day after day. That is absurd. It may even be criminal. I cannot support that any more. I believe we need to figure out not just how to leave Iraq but how to fight the War on Terror and to do it right.

Brave words? Or politically calculated? My bet is on the latter. Smith saw the midterm results and understood steadfastly supporting the administration's Iraq policy was as safe as a Sunday drive through Baghdad with the top down and no military escort. If Smith was troubled about the administration's war policy, wouldn't you think he'd work to influence his Republican colleagues or the White House about changing the Iraq military strategy? After all, wouldn't a moderate work to bring the two opposing sides closer together?

Not if you're a Gordon Smith moderate.

In March, Smith - to his credit - was indeed one of two GOP Senators (along with Hagel) to vote in favor of bringing the troops home, but in February he had voted against allowing debate on the surge despite his December statement. And, when push came to shove during the May debate over tying Iraq funding to benchmarks, Smith failed to walk the walk to back up his talk, voting with the administration.

So, let's get this straight - Sen. Gordon Smith thinks the handling of the Iraq War may be criminally incompetent, but he's willing to provide indefinite funding?

Come again?

Maybe Smith's Webster's Dictionary defines a moderate as: "(n) a follower; a skilled contortionist; an individual who rarely takes a strong stand, but if he does mistakenly wander into the land of leadership, he quickly realizes he's exposed, reconsiders, reevaluates and reverses until he's once again lockstep with the majority opinion."

The Libby Liberation provided Smith another opportunity to show Oregonians his contortionist skills (I didn't know Mormons practiced yoga!). The president's decision unfortunately (for Gordo) came while the congresscritters were home covorting with their constituents. When local television outlet KATU asked Smith about his views on the president's amnesty for good ol'Scooter, Smith was clearly uncomfortable. It was as if he only partially memorized the GOP talking points (poor Scooter was the victim of an overzealous partisan prosecutor, oh, and by the way the president can do whatever he wants so leave -him- me alone!). Like a good moderate, he remembered to share the Plames' pain, too. Watch the interview here. You can almost smell his panic.

"It is a very serious thing to not tell the truth to a federal officer and why he would have gotten in that situation I don't know, because he was not guilty of the charge of the case. But the constitution gives the president the lawful right to commute or pardon, he's exercised that, every president before has done that. I would have preferred to see this run the full legal course but I know Scooter Libby and he's a very smart and as far as I know a decent guy and I just don't know what happened here. It's just sad...I feel bad for everyone, even the Plames who were affected by this case."

One more word about Smith's moderation - he's got a lifetime rating from the ACU of 74.5 (GOP Sen Arlen Specter has a 44 - that's a moderate, in my opinion) and an ADA 2006 voting rating of 15%. Smith's lifetime voting record reveals the "moderate" label is nothing more than a marketing tool - a slogan to make him more palatable to the average Oregon voter.

DC insiders and Oregon activists see Smith as vulnerable, but many of the high profile Democrats on the DSCC short list have declined to run. Each week, there are reports in the local media about DSCC Chair Schumer recruiting another potential candidate. Currently, he's got House Speaker Jeff Merkley in his sight (Merkley says he'll make an announcement by July 31st) and many others are contemplating runs.

But, really, why is Schumer still searching?

There's a capable and proven progressive already in the race. Activist and lawyer Steve Novick deserves serious consideration from the ITB (Inside the Beltway) Crowd.

Novick has the resume. From his website:

• After stops in law firms in New York and San Francisco, Steve joined the Environment Division (then known as the "Land and Natural Resources Division") of the United States Justice Department in 1987. He brought successful lawsuits against polluters for violations of the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act. He also served as lead counsel in the notorious Love Canal case. On that case in 1995, Steve and his team negotiated a settlement in which Occidental Chemical repaid the taxpayers $129 million in cleanup costs and interest. Announcing the settlement, Attorney General Janet Reno said: "Today we celebrate a transformation of an environmental disaster called Love Canal into a success story .... It [the settlement] stands for the principle that when people make a mess, they should pay to clean it up."
• Returning to Oregon, Steve worked as policy director for Tom Bruggere's 1996 Senate bid. He then served as chief of staff to the Democrats in the State Senate from 1997 to 1999. Subsequently, he was Executive Director of the Center for Constructive Citizen Action, which spearheaded the fight against Bill Sizemore's Measure 91, which would have cut the State budget for schools, health care and public safety by more than 20%.
• In 2002, Steve was policy director for Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski in his successful campaign. From 2004 to 2006, he worked for Citizens for Oregon's Future, an organization dedicated to providing taxpayers useful, reliable information on tax and budget issues. In 2005, Steve developed a "balance the state budget" classroom exercise for high school students, which was used by social studies teachers in Creswell, Springfield, Salem and Portland. The students' work attracted significant media attention.

He's a true progressive - a voice needed in Washington, DC. On the important issues, he's got the right answers. The netroots is embracing him, recognizing he's got the right stuff to take on Gordon Smith. Oregon is not a state we need to run a "blue dog" to win.

In the two months since Novick announced his candidacy, he has raised almost $200K and announced the campaign's recent hiring of two new staffers. There's no doubt that Smith is going to be well-financed - he had over $2.8 million in the bank at the end of Q1, raising $747K during the quarter. Back in 2002, Smith raised over $5 million and spent over $5.5 million in his re-election effort, so the backing of the DSCC will be critical to suceeding in the general. However, let's allow Oregon voters to select the best candidate to take down Gordo.

After all, the next Senator will be representing Oregon.

Donate!?

Race Tracker wiki: OR-Sen.

OR-Sen: Rumors of A Challenger for Smith Making the Rounds

Oregon State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown announced Sunday she would be stepping down from her leadership post after nine years. The Salem News reports:

When Brown was first elected Leader in 1998, there were only ten Democrats in the Oregon Senate. Under her leadership, that number grew to eighteen, a solid majority that has enabled the Senate to make monumental strides for Oregon'

“It’s been an amazing run, and whatever the future holds, I am committed to continuing the fight to strengthen our great state,” said Senator Brown.

Citing progress on a number of key issues – including increased funding for early education, K-12 schools and higher education; making health care more affordable and accessible; restoring 100 state troopers to protect Oregon’s highways; protecting consumers; investing in renewable energy; expanding the Oregon Bottle Bill; enacting landmark civil rights protections; and passing comprehensive ethics reform – Brown said she leaves her role as Majority Leader with a great sense of accomplishment.

The announcement has sparked speculation about what Brown has in mind for her future, with local blogs suggesting this is her first step in a campaign to become Oregon's next Democratic Senator. It looks like she'd be a solid choice and stand a good chance of knocking off Gordon Smith, one of the most vulnerable Republican Senators in 2008, Today, it's only rumors, but it looks like the race in Oregon might finally be on.

OR-Sen wiki