Western Roundup - July 16th

THE WESTERN ROUNDUP

Last week I looked at the news from the Pacific Northwest & northern Interior Mountain states (AK, WA, OR, NV, ID, MT) Today, I take a look at developments in Colorado and New Mexico.

Democrats have an unprecedented opportunity to expand our national majority by making inroads in this fast-growing region - long dominated by libertarian Republicans. The recent nativist anti-Latino rhetoric spewing from the GOP risks turning the legal immigrant community - a huge and growing voting bloc in this region - against the Republicans for generations to come.


COLORADO: Purple Mountain's Majesty

Not only will the Mile High State host the 2008 Democratic National Convention next summer, but will also be the central in the Democrats' efforts to expand their Senate majority and expel one of the most controversial conservative House members. National parties are focusing their attention on this important swing state.

Two excellent local blogs for daily news on the Rocky Mtn state's political developments are ColoradoPols.com and (for a more progressive focus) SquareState.net. The changing demographics in the state are making strange bedfellows, as liberal Mark Udall and conservative Marilyn Musgrave both try to move toward the middle. Three races will determine whether Colorado continues its recent transition from Red to Blue:

• CO-Sen: America's only 2008 open (thus far) senate seat dominates politics this cycle. The battle between Dem Rep. Mark Udall and GOP Bob Schaffer is well underway. "CO-Sen: Is Udall the Favorite in the Open Seat Contest?"
• CO-02: Democratic constituencies are vying in a competitive primary to fill the 2nd District seat being vacated by Udall. Will the netroots prevail over the establishment and green candidates in the race? "CO-02: Progressive Constituencies Battle in Primary"
• CO-04: Mad Marilyn Musgrave is a national Dem target who came close to defeat in 2006. A crowded Dem primary field has already formed. The dynamics of the primary race have been discussed here and here. Today, I discuss Musgrave's efforts to repackage her image and focus on constituent concerns in "CO-04: Will Musgrave's Moderate Makeover Succeed?"

NEW MEXICO: A Tale of Two Giants

The actions and political maneuvering of two officials - Sen. "Pajama Pete" Domenici and Gov. Bill Richardson - dominate New Mexico politics. Domenici has watched his longtime popularity plummet throughout 2007 as he found himself in national headlines. How Domenici's struggles to regain his footing and Richardson's presidential ambitions affect the state's politics are discussed in "NM-Sen: Waiting for the Dominos to Fall"

Cross-posted at An Enduring Democratic Majority.

CO-04: Will Musgrave's Moderate Makeover Succeed?

Eastern Colorado's 4th District is home to right wing conservative Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R), who has made a national name for herself as the lead House sponsor of the homophobic federal marriage amendment in the past two Congresses. During the 2006 campaign, Musgrave told the Family Research Council, “As we face the issues that we are facing today, I don’t think there’s anything more important out there than the marriage issue.”

Her singular focus on this divisive issue - and lack of attention to her district - led to a very narrow 2006 victory margin (Musgrave got only 46% of the vote!) against Democratic nominee Angie Paccione. Paccione is back for another run in 2008 - and will face a primary discussed here.

Mad Marilyn seems to have been scared straight (well, maybe there's a better word choice) - and is in the midst of a "radical" moderate makeover. It's important for Democrats to expose this makeover for the PR-driven sham it is.

Ironically, life in the minority has provided Musgrave the freedom to move toward the middle, as her 'signature issue' is a non-starter in the Democratic-controlled House. So, what has she been up to? She's pumping gas, canvassing her constituents, and publicly releasing her earmark requests, an effort at transparency that also helps illustrate how she's taking care of the 4th district voters.

Working with another Colorado politician courting the moderate vote in his run for Senate, progressive Rep. Mark Udall, Musgrave has turned her attention to locally important farm policy. She's also worked in bipartisan partnership with Dem Rep John Salazar to prevent the US Army's Fort Carson expansion into Pinon Canyon.

A formerly loyal GOP foot-soldier, Musgrave has jumped on the 'anti-Bush' bandwagon and made "nice-nice" with Mark Udall to the point the Denver Post is touting the bipartisan "New Musgrave"

Coming off a narrow election win in November and criticism that she wasn't accessible to her constituents, the third-term Colorado congresswoman is undergoing a political makeover.
"I feel like I've worked hard for the past five years, but when you're criticized for not being as in touch with your constituents as you should be, I need to respond with humility," she said. "People criticize me for not doing things, and then when I prove them wrong and do them, they say, 'She's doing it because she had a close race.' It's a no-win situation."
Perhaps, say political observers, but Musgrave's makeover is a smart move considering Republicans are struggling to say afloat nationally, and a number of Democrats are showing interest in trying to topple her in next year's election.
"It's a clearly calculated, born-again political image," said John Straayer, political-science professor at Colorado State University, which is in Musgrave's 4th Congressional District.
So far Musgrave's new image hasn't translated into votes. During the current Congress, she's voted with her party 96 percent of the time, according to a vote database on WashingtonPost.com. (emphasis added)

OK, so Marilyn may not be as clueless as the average Republican CongressCritter. She's listening to her constituents and she's cooperating with her colleagues across the aisle. Will this make her 2008 reelection easier?

The national parties are not ignoring this race.

The Republicans are worried. The NRCC recently added Musgrave to the ROMP (Regain Our Majority Program) list of most vulnerable incumbents.

The Democrats are hopeful. Not to be outdone, the DCCC also serving notice Musgrave is also on their radar screen by including her as one of the GOP incumbents targeted by ads over the Independence Day recess:




The battle for the High Plains has begun. But, the fact that Democrats are playing offense on this traditional Republican turf speaks volumes about how the political dynamic has changed.

Donate to help turn Colorado Blue.

Cross-posted at An Enduring Democratic Majority.

CO-04: Angie & Eidsness Visit the Blogosphere

Last week I reported on Colorado Fourth District Democrat Angie Paccione liveblogging over at Firedoglake. She drew rave reviews from Down With Tyranny and other progressives for her forthright stands on issues that may not be all that popular in the conservative high plains of eastern Colorado.

It's come to my attention that Eric Eidsness, the 2006 Reform Party candidate who garnered more than 11% of the 2006 vote, also recently blogged. He chose to post over at the local home of Colorado progressives, SquareState. Let's just say, Eidsness was less successful in his attempt to woo netroots support. Kossack Colorado Luis posted on the dialogue and admonished campaign strategists: "His [Eidsness'] post, "Winning CD-4" should be screensaved and shown to every campaign this cycle as the paradigm example of how not to interact with progressive blogs." A sampling of Eidsness' post about the 2006 race:

Supporters believed in my moderate, civil and thoughtful message. No one disputed my ability to communicate effectively, my qualifications or my passion, or my fiscal conservatism and socially progressive ideas. That was evident to those who witnessed the Windsor debate.

Even my service to the Reagan Administration where I enforced three national laws was as a envrionmental professional in the engineering field, not a political hack circling Washington D. C. looking for a position of power and influence. That service seems to be a black eye for me among some die-hard Democratic activists.
I know that there are a vocal few who are mad at my entrance into the race last year as a Reform Party Candidate. Some "blame" me for "spoiling" the race for Angie. That is speculation and really not that relevant to next years race in the CD-4.

However, I will say this, it is interesting that I earned the endorsements of four conservative daily newspapers east of I-25 (Lamar, Sterling, Fort Morgan and Greeley, as well as the Fort Collins Coloradoan. It is for this reason, along with my water, envrionmental(sic), business and national policy experience in the "Reagan Administration", that if I were to earn the Democratic nomination, I would defeat Marilyn Musgrave.(emphasis added)

You have to wonder if he was aware SquareState was a progressive blog? Talk about not understanding your audience. Even before I read Eidsness' nonsense, I felt Paccione deserved our support. We don't need to elect another DINO to Congress. A Reagan environmentalist? Uhm, does anyone remember James Watt?


Let's show Paccione we support her efforts to unseat Mad Marilyn by donating.


CO-04 wiki.

Weekly Western Roundup - Dems Eager to Oust GOP Incumbents

The Democratic Party's historic 2006 midterm election win in which the Dems achieved control of both the House and Senate was built primarily on victories in the Northeast and Midwest. Only 9 of the 30 House seats and 3 of the 6 Senate seats won were west of the Mississippi.

The Democratic wave that swept out of the Atlantic across New England and the Midwest ran out of steam as it lapped up against the foothills of the Front Range, with the Dems only scoring one Senate (Tester in Montana) and four House (AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CO-07) pickups on the Pacific side of the Continental Divide. (The four seat total requires me to move the Divide a couple of hundred miles east, as CO-07 technically sits on the eastern side of the divide.) Can Democrats score more wins by looking West in 2008? If they aim to expand their House majority, they will need to heed Horace Greeley and "Go West." For the purpose of this Weekly Western Roundup, I'll be looking at developments in House races west of (and including) Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico.

Will The West Be Fertile Ground for 2008 Democratic House Wins?

With only one New England GOP representative remaining in the House and a half dozen truly vulnerable GOP targets in the Midwest, the Democrats needs to identify and target vulnerable Western lawmakers if we wish to significantly expand our majorities in Congress. Timothy Egan, in a 6/21/08 NY Times opinion piece titled, "Republicans Losing the West,"(access requires paid subscription) discusses the GOP's loosening grasp on a region long viewed as solidly Red. Egan observes the GOP's harsh rhetoric on immigration has changed the political balance in the region and quotes AZ Dem Chair David Waid, “Arizona is in play like never before. And the Republicans are literally handing it to us.”

Can Democrats take advantage of this opportunity? Where are they best poised to pick-up GOP-held seats in 2008? Fifteen months before election day, the Democrats are fielding strong and diverse candidates in the districts currently held by the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. In 2008, Democrats should be in a position to at least match the four Western seats picked up in 2006. This first weekly roundup reviews the seven races with the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. In future updates, I'll look at races where Democrats are fielding strong challenges to better-entrenched incumbents.

Are Primaries Good for the Party?

In five to the seven races examined here, Democrats are likely to see multiple candidates vying for the nomination. This forces the question - does a primary battle strengthen or weaken a candidate entering a general election? The argument can be made that a bloody and expensive primary battle results in the eventual nominee emerging as wounded and damaged for a general election campaign.

However, there are many who will argue that a primary can increase a candidate's name recognition and provides the opportunity for a candidate to fine-tune their policy positions and anticipate the potential campaign attacks they may face in the general election. Of course, I'm assuming the campaigns refrain from personal attacks and keep the primary campaign's focus on the issues confronting the district and the nation. An issues-driven primary provides the party's progressives, moderates and conservatives to identify the best candidate for the particular district. As such, the candidate that emerges is the one most likely to win and claim a mandate from the people they represent.

I personally hope to see more progressive candidates win in the general. I believe a strong intraparty debate between the various groups within the party during the primary is the way to develop a progressive consensus from which national Democrats can lead.

The Consensus Top Targets - Winning the West

The experts are pretty much in agreement on the 2008 battleground districts. The Rothenberg Political Report House ratings identifies 24 GOP-held seats as potentially in play. Seven of these are in the West. Electoral-vote.com's 2008 Hot House Races roster is similar. Both include districts where Democratic incumbents will likely face strong challenges and where Dems will be playing defense in '08 (AZ-05, CA-11). Future editions of this Weekly Update will include developments in those races as well.

I don't view this list as comprehensive. There are certainly other Western districts that are possible pickups. In coming weeks, as we get Q2 fundraising results and see where the DCCC's recruiting efforts have been targeted, this list will likely grow. In my opinion, there should be 12-20 Western seats the Dems make a strong run at during this cycle. As the field expands, I'll update the target list.

The Seven Western Targets (ranked in order of most-to-least vulnerable):

#1) ARIZONA 01 - Renzi
#2) NEW MEXICO 01 - Wilson
#3) WASHINGTON 08 - Reichert
#4) CALIFORNIA 04 - Doolittle
#5) NEVADA 03 - Porter
#6) COLORADO 04 - Musgrave
#7) WYOMING AL - Cubin

#1) AZ-01: Renzi [wiki] (PVI R+2)* (RR = Lean GOP)**

• Democratic Line-Up: THREE declared challengers with SEVEN more rumored to be considering entering the race
• POSSIBLE resignation, due to ethics/legal probes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Yes
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Possible
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

For more see "AZ-01: Dems Lining Up to Take on Renzi"

#2) NM-01: Wilson [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: ONE declared challenger (for more info about Martin Heinrich's campaign is here) with at least TWO more rumored to be considering making a run at unseating Wilson
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable
• Incumbent Running? Probable (Wilson does not have a 2008 campaign website)
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

For more details on NM-01 see: "NM-01: New USAGate Testimony Likely to Hurt Wilson"

#3) WA-08: Reichert [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Darcy Burner is running again, and may face a primary challenge from 1-2 other Democrats
• Incumbent Running? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details see "WA-08: Burner Likely to Get Primaried in 2008"

#4) CA-04: Doolittle [wiki] (PVI R+11) (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Charlie Brown is full-speed ahead on fundraising and building a strong campaign team to steal this seat from the GOP
• POSSIBLE retirement due to ongoing FBI probe into Doolittle's close ties to Jack Abramoff
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details see "CA-04: GOPers Want to Dump Doolittle, Too"

#5) NV-03: Porter [wiki] (PVI D+1) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: TWO declared challengers, FOUR considering entering, 2006 Dem Gov Nominee Dina Titus has declined to run
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details on NV-03 race see "NV-o3: What's Happening in Vegas?"

#6) CO-04: Musgrave [wiki] (PVI R+9) (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Angie Paccione is running again and is likely to face a primary challenge from 2-3 potential candidates.
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MINIMAL

For more details on the CO-04 race see "CO-04: Paccione Seeks Netroots Support - She Deserves It" and "CO-04: Angie & Eidsness Visit the Blogosphere"

#7) WY-AL: Cubin [wiki] (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up:
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Possible
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Unlikely
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: LOW

For more details on the WY-AL race see "WY-AL: Does the New Sen. Barrasso Affect the Dynamics of the House Race?" (to be posted 6/25)

Are there additional House pick-up opportunities west of the Continental Divide? Certainly. In addition to Doolittle, there are three more CA GOP incumbents (as well as Alaska Rep Don Young) with ethical clouds hanging over their heads. But, picking off these, or other firmly entrenched incumbents across the West will require well-financed candidates with a strong message. The time to lay the foundation for victory in November 2008 is now.

*What's "PVI"? It's the Cook Partisan Voting Index, developed by Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. A full explanation can be found here.

**A note about the Rothenberg Ratings - Rothenberg rates on the following spectrum: Safe Dem, Favored Dem, Lean Dem, Toss-Up/Tilt Dem, Pure Toss-Up, Toss-Up/Tilt GOP, Lean GOP, Favored GOP, Safe GOP. The current ratings list 24 GOP held seats are currently not rated as "Safe GOP." Each race discussed above includes an "RR" rating based on these categories.

CO-04 Paccione Seeks Netroots Support - She Deserves It

This past Saturday Angie Paccione, Democrat running to unseat Marilyn Musgrave in CO-04 (wiki), liveblogged over at Firedoglake. She may face a primary battle, as Betsy Markey and Eric Eidsness are considering runs. In my opinion, Paccione is the progressive voice and the best chioce to defeat Mad Marilyn in 2008.

Paccione mounted a surprisingly strong challenge to Musgrave in 2006, coming within 2 1/2 points of the second term congresswoman.

Why is this race important?

In addition to appearing on CREW's list of the 20 most corrupt members of Congress, Musgrave is perhaps best known for her virulent and tireless assault on LGBT rights in this country. She is the primary House sponsor of the Federal Marriage Amendment, which would enshrine discrimination and bigotry into the Constitution.

Here is what Angie had to say about the issue during last year's campaign:



"All are created equal. Equal. I stand for equality for all American citizens. Equality. No asterisks. No parentheses. Every American should have equality under the law."

Amen, Angie.

Local bloggers are on a "Muskrat Hunt" to defeat Musgrave in 2008. They're watching every vote and holding Musgrave accountable.

An independent video from last year's campaign asks the voters in Colorado, "Have you had enough?"




To help Angie show Marilyn the door, click here.