Show Me The Money - Dems Positioned to Pick Up Open Seats

CQ Politics Moneyline has published another Top Ten Q1 fundraising list. They reviewed the House candidates running in open seat contests - typically the most likely seats to switch partisan control and list the top ten, as measured by Cash on Hand (CoH). The Democrats have a decided advantage at this stage of the campaign. Twenty-six Republicans are leaving the House, many choosing early retirement in an election cycle with a decidedly anti-Republican national political climate.

The race to replace Deborah Pryce in central Ohio's 15th district has both parties' nominees appearing on the list of best-funded campaigns. The eight seats are currently held by Republicans. The other (the second district in Colorado centered in Boulder) is a safe Democratic seat where three strong candidates are raising buckets of money for a primary fight that is likely to be among this cycle's most expensive race.

With five Democrats on the list, it's clear the party is positioned to pick up additional seats to pad it's new majority. Of the eight Republican-held seats listed, CQ Politics rates four as NO CLEAR FAVORITE, Democrats favored to pick up one (IL-11), and Republicans slightly favored to hold on in New Jersey and California.

The list:

1) John Adler (D, NJ-03) (James Sexton, R) [CQPolitics rating - Leans Republican] $1,000,000
2) Mary Jo Kilroy (D, OH-15) (Deborah Pryce, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $944,000
3) Doug Ose (R, CA-04) (John Doolittle, R) [Leans Republican] $845,000
4) Linda Stender (D, NJ-07) (Mike Ferguson, R), [Leans Republican] $845,000
5) Keith Fimian (R, VA-11), (Tom Davis, R), [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $742,000
6) Erik Paulsen (R, MN-03), (Jim Ramstad, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $688,000
7) Will Shafroth, (D, CO-02), (Mark Udall, D) [Safe Democrat] $682,000
8) Dan Maffei, (D, NY-25), (James Walsh, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $676,000
9) Debbie Halvorson (D, IL-11) (Jerry Weller, R) [Democrat Favored] $673,000
10) Steve Stivers (R, OH-15) (Deborah Pryce, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $600,000

Western Roundup - July 16th

THE WESTERN ROUNDUP

Last week I looked at the news from the Pacific Northwest & northern Interior Mountain states (AK, WA, OR, NV, ID, MT) Today, I take a look at developments in Colorado and New Mexico.

Democrats have an unprecedented opportunity to expand our national majority by making inroads in this fast-growing region - long dominated by libertarian Republicans. The recent nativist anti-Latino rhetoric spewing from the GOP risks turning the legal immigrant community - a huge and growing voting bloc in this region - against the Republicans for generations to come.


COLORADO: Purple Mountain's Majesty

Not only will the Mile High State host the 2008 Democratic National Convention next summer, but will also be the central in the Democrats' efforts to expand their Senate majority and expel one of the most controversial conservative House members. National parties are focusing their attention on this important swing state.

Two excellent local blogs for daily news on the Rocky Mtn state's political developments are ColoradoPols.com and (for a more progressive focus) SquareState.net. The changing demographics in the state are making strange bedfellows, as liberal Mark Udall and conservative Marilyn Musgrave both try to move toward the middle. Three races will determine whether Colorado continues its recent transition from Red to Blue:

• CO-Sen: America's only 2008 open (thus far) senate seat dominates politics this cycle. The battle between Dem Rep. Mark Udall and GOP Bob Schaffer is well underway. "CO-Sen: Is Udall the Favorite in the Open Seat Contest?"
• CO-02: Democratic constituencies are vying in a competitive primary to fill the 2nd District seat being vacated by Udall. Will the netroots prevail over the establishment and green candidates in the race? "CO-02: Progressive Constituencies Battle in Primary"
• CO-04: Mad Marilyn Musgrave is a national Dem target who came close to defeat in 2006. A crowded Dem primary field has already formed. The dynamics of the primary race have been discussed here and here. Today, I discuss Musgrave's efforts to repackage her image and focus on constituent concerns in "CO-04: Will Musgrave's Moderate Makeover Succeed?"

NEW MEXICO: A Tale of Two Giants

The actions and political maneuvering of two officials - Sen. "Pajama Pete" Domenici and Gov. Bill Richardson - dominate New Mexico politics. Domenici has watched his longtime popularity plummet throughout 2007 as he found himself in national headlines. How Domenici's struggles to regain his footing and Richardson's presidential ambitions affect the state's politics are discussed in "NM-Sen: Waiting for the Dominos to Fall"

Cross-posted at An Enduring Democratic Majority.

CO-02: Progressive Constituencies Battle in Primary

Colorado's 2nd CD seat is currently one of the few 2008 open seats. Rep. Mark Udall is expected to run for the open Senate seat, resulting in a crowded Democratic primary to replace him in the Democratic-leaning district centered on Boulder.

The race is shaping up into a three way contest - with state Senate president Joan Fitz-Gerald the early frontrunner over high-tech entrepreneur Jared Polis and environmentalist Will Shafroth it could be an unprecedented Democratic brawl - pitting powerful liberal constituencies against one another. The "Big Line" over at Colorado Pols lists the odds at this point in the race as follows:

Fitz-Gerald 3-1, Labor endorsement not unexpected, but still a big deal
Polis 10-1, Not off to a blazing start and has a lot of ground to cover
Shafroth 15-1, If he isn't raising good $ now, won't even make it to 2008

Those comments and odds were posted prior to the filing of Q2 fundraising reports. All of the candidates raised impressive amounts:

Polis $459K/$403K CoH (with $150K from his own pocket)
Shafroth $300K/$288K CoH
Fitz-Gerald $236K/$189K CoH.

Considering all of the candidates in CD-2 raised as much or more than CD-4 incumbent GOP Rep. MadCat Musgrave in anticipation of another tough re-election campaign, the amount of money pouring into the Democrats' coffers means the winner may have to spend over a million dollars and may be one of the most expensive in state history.

The 2nd CD is one of the most progressive in the Interior West - and provides an opportunity to elect a liberal Democrat. Polis' signature issue is education - and his dedication to progressive causes has brought him the support and interest from across the netroots. Fitz-Gerald is an experienced politician who was successful in convincing Colorado voters to support a ballot initiative to loosen the constitutionally-mandated "TABOR" budget restraints to address fiscal concerns - and has focused on healthcare issues. Shafroth is the Executive Director of the Colorado Conservation Trust and has a political pedigree in the state going back four generations.

What we have shaping up is a contest between the establishment candidate, the netroots activist candidate and the green candidate. Who emerges as the victor may be a precursor for the national party's future.

This is a primary battle we should all be paying attention to.

Cross-posted at An Enduring Democratic Majority.