Obama: America's Great Hope?

The more I thought about it yesterday, I began to think Obama winning the presidency might be America's one chance at redemption for the foreign policy disasters of the past seven years. His ascension sends a powerful message to the world about what America truly aspires to be - a beacon of hope in a world of conflict and human rights abuses. An Obama Administration would also be another step in the long and arduous process of cleansing our nation's soul from the centuries-old stain of slavery, Jim Crow and institutionalized racism.

Did you see this at PoliPundit? Poses an interesting theory about the Iowa white Democrats voting for Obama were about publicly showing their "anti-bigotry and tolerance quotient" to their neighbors. Interesting. Will the reticent Yankees of NH revert to the "polling booth racism" inherent in the Bradley effect? Or did Howard Ford Jr's run in TN Sen-06 (where he actually received a larger % of the vote than he had been polling) usher in a new electoral reality?

We'll see on Tuesday night.

Hawkeye Lessons, Election 2008

Iowa Democrats issued a clarion call for change last night by rebuking the Clinton machine and endorsing Barack Obama's post-partisan message of reconciliation and change. While Democratic turnout swamped the Republicans, the GOP voters delivered a verdict demanding change and rejected the failed Bush policies by endorsing the DC outsider's candidacy. While I think the MSM's rush to describe this election cycle as similar to 2008 is premature and hyperbolic, it's clear something is happening.

The rise of populism (on both sides), a generational shift, an unpopular war and a politicized and engaged electorate is a recipe for a tectonic political change. Barack Obama finds himself perfectly positioned for the campaign ahead.

The entrance poll data reveals:

1) The Energized Youth: Obama's campaign took a huge risk by staking his political fortunes on the notoriously disengaged voters under the age of thirty. Despite predictions the youth of 2008 would behave as the youth of the past, Obama built an Iowa (and national) strategy on a generational foundation. Defying the experts, they showed up in droves.

2) The Missing Gender Gap: TeamHillary believed she could achieve victory by attracting the majority of female voters. In a party where women outnumber men, female voters were viewed as Hillary's firewall. Surprisingly, Obama bested Hillary by a 35-30% margin.

3) Indies Heart the Democrats: Non-affiliated voters chose to caucus with the Democrats (20% were indies) and they were solidly in Obama's camp. Clinton attracted only 17% of these voters, finishing far behind Edwards and Obama. This reaffirms the general consensus Sen. Clinton is the polarizing figure in the Democratic race and undermines her argument as the most electable general election candidate.

4) Ronnie, They Shrunk Your Party: The 'theocratization' of the Republican Party continued, full-steam ahead. Fully 60% of the Iowa GOP caucus attendees were self-identified evangelicals. The GOP's decades-long Southern Strategy may be coming to fruition: a retreat to the land of Dixie, unelectable outside the South.

The Final Iowa Ads - Edwards' Unique Approach

All three leading Democratic candidates bought substantial airtime on Iowa television last night, the Iowa Caucus Eve. While both Obama and Clinton appear in a one-on-one sitdown with the Iowa electorate to deliver their closing arguments, John Edwards doesn't even appear in his closing ad. Instead, he has Iowan Doug Bishop explain Edwards' promise to Bishop's young son, "I'm going to keep fighting for your daddy's job" as the reason he supports Edwards.

In my opinion, the choice to have an average American deliver a testimonial on his behalf, was the more powerful of the three Democratic ads.





Obama lightheartedly lets Iowans know "you'll be glad to know this will be one of the last times you'll here me say, "I'm Barack Obama and I approved this message""... and then goes on to explain why he is running for president. "I'm running to finally solve the problems we talk about year after year after year..."





Hillary's ad, called Crossroads delivers a litany of issues facing the nation's next president. But the MSM seems to be more fascinated by the "extreme makeover" and good lighting of the softer, gentler Hillary than the substance of the message.

NYT: Iowa May Provide Dems Few Answers

Adam Nagourney poses the question: What if Iowa Settles Nothing for Democrats? by describing the Jan 3rd caucuses with, "Rarely has a political event been so intensely anticipated as a decisive moment, at least on the Democratic side."

Really? I was always under the impression Iowa was the first step in a long (but very shortened this cycle) series of elections designed to determine the Democratic nominee. Despite Michelle Obama's misguided statement of Iowa being "make or break" and the political chattering classes saying a Hillary win would be tantamount to sealing the deal, I think a process that moves on to the other early states (and, hopefully to at least Tsunami Tuesday) with two or three viable candidates will make the eventual nominee stronger as a general election candidate.

Despite Mr. Nagourney's concerns, if there are three Senators still standing on Friday morning, it will be a good day for Democrats. It will be a good day for America.

Political Junkies' Nirvana

The Iowa newspaper of record, The Des Moines Register has released a new poll in the closing days before the caucuses illustrating once again why this may be the best of times for self-described political junkies like myself.

The contest is TOO CLOSE TO CALL. Make that BOTH contests.

I'm not sure if it could get any better than this - except to say the quick succession of primary contests means the nomination battle's frantic race to the (likely) Tsunami Tuesday finish line will mean the rollercoaster ride will be far too short.

The top Democratic headline from the DMR: "New Iowa Poll: Obama Widens Lead Over Clinton" announces Obama has opened the largest lead (32%-25% over Clinton) any candidate has enjoyed over the course of the year-long campaign in the Hawkeye State. But David Yepsen, the journalistic dean of Iowa politics writes (in the same Register) about the risk of making predictions from this poll.

• Some support is soft. Of those who have decided on a candidate, 34 percent of the Democrats say they could still be persuaded to change their minds. Among Republicans, it's 46 percent.

  A lot of caucus-goers are first-timers. A whopping 60 percent of the Democrats say this would be their first time at a caucus. Some 40 percent of the Republicans say that.

  A lot of Democratic caucus-goers aren't all that Democratic. Some 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they are independents, and another 5 percent say they are Republicans. (Technically, they'll all have to re-register as Democrats to participate, but that can be done at the caucus site.) Put another way, 54 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they're Democrats. In 2004, it was 80 percent.

What this all means is Obama's "widening lead" is built on a very soft (and unpredictable) foundation. Many other polls taken during the same period weight previous caucus-goers more heavily. These polls continue to show a tight three-way race. Any of the leading campaigns can build a strong case for finishing first Thursday night.

Digging deeper into the numbers, it's interesting to see the issues divide between the GOP and Dem voters going into the caucuses. Immigration looms large on the Republican side while only 3% mention healthcare as an issue. Only 3% of Democrats are concerned about immigration; they're motivated by the war in Iraq and healthcare.

As a Democrat,the best news from the DMR poll may be this nugget (again from Yepsen):

* Democrats are on fire. And what if 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers are independents and 5 percent are Republicans? That tells us the GOP is in real trouble, that a lot of Americans want change and that they are turning to the Democrats to find it.

"Hold on, boys and girls, strap yourselves in and please keep your arms and legs inside the car. This rollercoaster is going to be unlike any other you've ever been on."

Chris Matthews: Joe's Got the Mo

Got an interesting email from the Biden campaign today highlighting Chris Matthew's on-air comments about the Delaware Senator:

Even more evidence that the buzz surrounding our campaign is getting around. This week, Chris Matthews of MSNBC placed our campaign in the top three... "On the Democratic side - I say, and this may surprise you, that Joe Biden is now the third best bet for the nomination. I'm hearing a lot of buzz about him from people who pay attention."

It seems strange to have Biden - the acknowledged Democratic foreign policy dean to be "surging" at the precise moment when Iraq and Iran seem to be fading in importance. Others have been explaining both the Obama and Huckabee upswings in the context of the declining overseas dangers (as perceived by the electorate).

I'm curious to know who these "people who pay attention" are. But, to be honest, "paying attention" doesn't necessarily equate to "knowledge and wisdom" among the modern day political talking class.

Does Sitting on the Fence = Leadership?

Over the weekend, news reports quoted Sen. Clinton as readying up attacks questioning her Democratic rivals' character. It looks like Democratic Courage, a liberal activist group, is preempting the First Lady. They're launching what is being described as the first negative campaign of the Democratic nomination contest.

I'm not sure I even see this as "negative," as it compliments Hillary's visionary policy proposal and only criticizes her for quickly backing down when Rudy denounces the idea as "socialism." It poses a fair question: What will Hillary stand for as president?




Democratic Courage is trying to get this onto the airwaves in Iowa. If you have some xtra change in the tip jar, consider giving them a hand at their ActBlue page.

Strap Yourselves in, Boys & Girls. It's going to be a bumpy ride...

The mad sprint to the Iowa caucuses (and the tendency of Iowa Dems to change their minds and dramatically change the dynamics of the Democratic nominating process) has begun. With 30 days of campaigning left (minus one or two days around Christmas, of course - Jesus wouldn't like anyone crassly campaigning on his birthday!) and a summer that saw Hillary make gains which would have provided her the coronation she has been planning for decades, it now looks like the three-way we've long anticipated is coming to fruition.

According to the WaPo: Sen. Clinton has decided if they're going to pile on, she's going to fight back: Losing Ground in Iowa, Clinton Assails Obama.

Despite all the efforts of the Clinton machine, it looks like we've got a real (if brief) race on our hands. Might as well forget about the "politics of hope" because this looks like its going to be more "politics as usual."

Clinton has hammered Obama recently over his health-care proposal, arguing that he is misleading voters because it omits millions of people and would not lower costs. But Sunday, in a dramatic shift, she made it clear that her goal is to challenge Obama not just on policy but also on one of his strongest selling points: his reputation for honesty.

"There's a big difference between our courage and our convictions, what we believe and what we're willing to fight for," Clinton told reporters here. She said voters in Iowa will have a choice "between someone who talks the talk, and somebody who's walked the walk."

Asked directly whether she intended to raise questions about Obama's character, she replied: "It's beginning to look a lot like that."

To assure your safety and full enjoyment of our democratic process, please keep you arms and legs inside the roller-coaster at all times. Whatever you do, don't close your eyes!