MS-01: Dem Childers In May Run-Off

While most eyes have been diverted this evening to the Keystone State Presidential Battle, Democrats came within a whisker-thin margin of picking up a deeply red district in the Deep South.

Travis Childers received 49% of the vote in the six candidate race to replace newly-appointed Senator Roger Wicker in MS-01. Coming less than 1,000 votes needed to reach the 5% threshold, Childers will now face a May 13 run-off with second-place finisher Greg Davis to finish out the term. Both will face each other again as the nominees for the same seat in November.

It will be much harder for Childers to turn the seat blue in November when turnoe to put surges nationwide for the presidential contest. But the fact he is a viable candidate in a conservative district provides another example of the Democrats' expanding playing field in the current political atmosphere.

The NRCC, already low on funds, has a tough decision to make. Do they expend their limited resources in defending this vulnerable seat (along with Louisiana 06)? Or do they husband their resources, and risk letting another seat (or two) slip from their control further demoralizing donors and members?

Let's hope the DCCC decides their "all in" in both races.

TGIF Random Thoughts 12.14.07

No Worries @ TeamHillary: Chief Pollster and Senior Clinton aide Mark Penn's take on the state of the Dem nomination contest surveys the "plethora" of early state polls and declares:

"...poll reader beware. No question that this is a fully engaged race and the polls in Iowa are competitive and tight. Iowa is a state where Hillary started behind and has been improving steadily. But the polls in the other states show meaningful leads as we head into the home stretch, and Hillary maintains a national base in Feb 5th states that is strong and unmatched. And that's what the polls show."

Penn also describes the race as a roller-coaster ride. Strap yourselves in, boys and girls, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

Where were the Fireworks? On the GOP side, the presidential candidates participated in the Univision-sponsored Spanish language debate. Considering the emotional and nasty rhetoric flying between the candidates over illegal immigration in recent months the relative civility in this setting (one all candidates except McCain originally tried to avoid) is puzzling. With polls showing Hispanics opposing harsh immigration policies, it appears unlikely the GOP will be able to make inroads into the Democratic dominance in this rapidly growing voting bloc.

Does Tony Soprano Know? New Jersey inched closer to ending death penalty. With the federal government actively pursuing torture, uhm, I mean "enhanced interrogation techniques" this is certainly a case of one step forward, two steps back.

GOP Treading Water: National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief this weeks when they successfully defended two open congressional seats (VA-01 & OH-05). Both seats have strong conservative tendencies and would never be in play during normal political times. The DCCC made an aggressive push for the Ohio seat, forcing the cash-depleted NRCC to pour unprecedented resources into the special election. If this is a harbinger for 2008 contests, the GOP may find itself relegated to a "semi-permanent minority" party in the House again.

How is This News? Outside groups to play big role in 2008 presidential campaign.

This has to be one of my favorite headlines of campaign '08. I don't think we'll be seeing a "Huckleberry Girl" video anytime soon.