Show Me The Money - Dems Positioned to Pick Up Open Seats

CQ Politics Moneyline has published another Top Ten Q1 fundraising list. They reviewed the House candidates running in open seat contests - typically the most likely seats to switch partisan control and list the top ten, as measured by Cash on Hand (CoH). The Democrats have a decided advantage at this stage of the campaign. Twenty-six Republicans are leaving the House, many choosing early retirement in an election cycle with a decidedly anti-Republican national political climate.

The race to replace Deborah Pryce in central Ohio's 15th district has both parties' nominees appearing on the list of best-funded campaigns. The eight seats are currently held by Republicans. The other (the second district in Colorado centered in Boulder) is a safe Democratic seat where three strong candidates are raising buckets of money for a primary fight that is likely to be among this cycle's most expensive race.

With five Democrats on the list, it's clear the party is positioned to pick up additional seats to pad it's new majority. Of the eight Republican-held seats listed, CQ Politics rates four as NO CLEAR FAVORITE, Democrats favored to pick up one (IL-11), and Republicans slightly favored to hold on in New Jersey and California.

The list:

1) John Adler (D, NJ-03) (James Sexton, R) [CQPolitics rating - Leans Republican] $1,000,000
2) Mary Jo Kilroy (D, OH-15) (Deborah Pryce, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $944,000
3) Doug Ose (R, CA-04) (John Doolittle, R) [Leans Republican] $845,000
4) Linda Stender (D, NJ-07) (Mike Ferguson, R), [Leans Republican] $845,000
5) Keith Fimian (R, VA-11), (Tom Davis, R), [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $742,000
6) Erik Paulsen (R, MN-03), (Jim Ramstad, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $688,000
7) Will Shafroth, (D, CO-02), (Mark Udall, D) [Safe Democrat] $682,000
8) Dan Maffei, (D, NY-25), (James Walsh, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $676,000
9) Debbie Halvorson (D, IL-11) (Jerry Weller, R) [Democrat Favored] $673,000
10) Steve Stivers (R, OH-15) (Deborah Pryce, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $600,000

AWOL: Democratic leadership

Democrats have a long tradition of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. CQ Politics warns the ongoing Hillary-Barack battle could not only damage hopes of recapturing the White House, but also divide the party deeply enough to negatively affect Democrats down ballot. In fact, it may be providing the Republicans their ONLY hope in 2008:

The party and its presumed presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, are carrying the triple-headed albatross of a protracted war in Iraq, a sinking economy and the most unpopular GOP presidential incumbent in modern history. Two of the three, Iraq and President Bush, were the central elements of the soured political atmosphere that existed in November 2006, when the Democrats overturned Republican majorities on both sides of the Capitol. The economy, still in a long period of growth back then, has now gone into a downturn, if not an outright recession, and economic dissatisfaction almost always redounds against the party that holds the White House.

So the Republicans — pining against the odds for a return to power this fall, and aspiring a bit more realistically to minimize a deeper decline toward powerlessness — are hinging those hopes on letting Democrats be Democrats. Their calculation is that, if the Clinton vs. Obama contest drags on for months more, with each senator working to damage the other in search of an advantage, both will end up bloodied and bruised no matter which one is awarded the nomination. And at that point, Republicans hope, the loser's embittered constituency will do what other disaffected Democratic factions have done so often in the past and simply walk away from politics this fall — taking with them the money, the organizational muscle and, most important, the votes that could make the difference in dozens of close congressional races. (emphasis mine)

Yet, we have Democratic Super Delegates who still think it's wise to remain silent and uncommitted in the presidential race.

By sitting on the sidelines these elected officials are reinforcing the image of Democrats as spineless, poll-driven politicians. If the party is asking the American voter to entrust them with the keys to both the White House and Congress, doesn't it behoove them to show some leadership?

OH-18: No Sophomore Slump in Ohio

After the historic mid-term elections, the Republicans claimed they lost many of their seats not because of a bankrupt brand, failed policies or a widespread rejection by voters across the nation. Instead, they said their majority was lost because of a series of individual scandals. The "handful" of scalliwags, the thinking went, lost "safe" GOP districts: DeLay, Foley, Pombo and the litany of Abramoff-tinged congresscritters. They figured these districts would be easily recaptured in 2008, a presidential year when these districts would return to their red roots.

Well, it looks like one of those target districts, Zack Space's 18th District in Ohio, may be firming up for the Democrats. Due Space's strong fundraising and the Republican nominee's lack of resources, CQ Politics has changed it's rating in the race from "Leans Dem" to "Dem Favored." They write:

The typically strong conservative leanings of 18th District voters — President Bush took 57 percent of the vote there when he ran for re-election in 2004 — had Space perched precariously near the top of the GOP’s target list when this election cycle began.
But the Republicans still are struggling to recover from the damage done by the downfall of once-popular Republican Rep. Bob Ney, who dropped his bid for a seventh House term well into the 2006 campaign and then pled guilty to federal corruption charges related to his ties to convicted influencing-peddling lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Furthermore, the Republican nominated in the March 4 primary to challenge Space — Fred Dailey, a former state agriculture director — has a relatively low political profile, and a dangerously low amount of money in his campaign treasury. Updated campaign finance reports that both candidates recently filed with the Federal Election Commission show Dailey had just $36,000 left in his campaign account when April began, compared to the nearly $1 million in cash on hand reported by Space.

So, while Democratic turmoil continues at the presidential level, the downballot races continue to move toward building a stronger majority.

MS-01: Dem Childers In May Run-Off

While most eyes have been diverted this evening to the Keystone State Presidential Battle, Democrats came within a whisker-thin margin of picking up a deeply red district in the Deep South.

Travis Childers received 49% of the vote in the six candidate race to replace newly-appointed Senator Roger Wicker in MS-01. Coming less than 1,000 votes needed to reach the 5% threshold, Childers will now face a May 13 run-off with second-place finisher Greg Davis to finish out the term. Both will face each other again as the nominees for the same seat in November.

It will be much harder for Childers to turn the seat blue in November when turnoe to put surges nationwide for the presidential contest. But the fact he is a viable candidate in a conservative district provides another example of the Democrats' expanding playing field in the current political atmosphere.

The NRCC, already low on funds, has a tough decision to make. Do they expend their limited resources in defending this vulnerable seat (along with Louisiana 06)? Or do they husband their resources, and risk letting another seat (or two) slip from their control further demoralizing donors and members?

Let's hope the DCCC decides their "all in" in both races.

Show Me The Money - Q1's Biggest RainMakers

CQ Politics' Moneyline has a list of the top ten gainers in Cash on Hand in the just reported first quarter.

Competitive Challengers (noted on the list with an asterisk): Three Democratic challengers filing their first reports (Raul Martinez, Gerry Connolly and Tom Manion) make the list as does challenger John Adler, who reports over $1 million in his race to win the open seat in NJ-03. The one Republican challenger on the list (Northup) is running to regain the seat she lost in '06, so her fundraising ability isn't a huge surprise.

Fighting Freshmen (in italics): Three Democratic incumbents on the list are running their first reelection campaign, typically when a House member is found most vulnerable. All three are in swing districts in the northeast. By winning these races, Dems can reasonably expect to solidify their dominance in the region. Notably, Murphy's expected opponent in November (Tom Manion) also appears on the list.

Clash of the Titans: Two districts (FL-21 and PA-08) have two candidates in the top ten. In both cases the incumbents maintain a large cash advantage.

1) Raul Martinez*, (D FL-21) $593,000 CoH -- $593,000+
2) Rep. Joe Sestak, (D PA-07) $2.26 million CoH -- $549,000+
3) Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, (R FL-21) $1.45 million CoH -- $547,000+
4) Rep. Patrick J. Murphy, (D PA-08) $1.66 million CoH -- $487,000+
5) Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , (R IL-10) $2.25 million CoH -- $462,000+
6) Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, (D NY-20) $2.47 million CoH -- $433,000+
7) Gerry Connolly*, (D VA-11) $422,000 CoH -- $422,000+
8) Anne M. Northup*, (R KY-03) $428,000 CoH -- $422,000+
9) Tom Manion*, (R PA-08) $417,000 CoH --$417,000+
10) John H. Adler*, (D NJ-03) $1 million CoH -- $416,000+

A Blue Wave Coming: IL-08

The Rothenberg Political Report is changing the rating in Melissa Bean's race to defend her competitive congressional seat in Illinois-08 from "Leans Dem" to "Dem Favored." Her opponent, Steve Greenberg's campaign manager left the campaign this week to join a lobbying firm. This departure comes in the wake of the filing of dismal fundraising numbers for the Republican challenger:

...Goodman’s exit leaves more questions than answers for Greenberg. The wealthy businessman was expected to throw a scare into Cong. Melissa Bean (D) in Illinois’ 8th District. But he showed only $5,035 in the bank on March 31, and his ability and willingness to self-finance the race is unclear. Greenberg has put in $79,000 of his own money thus far.

Meanwhile, Bean is sitting on $1.3 million in campaign cash and will likely benefit from increased Democratic excitement that likely presidential nominee Barack Obama will generate at the top of the ticket.

Blue Jersey: Another Pickup Opportunity?

Another day, another ratings change (toward the Dems) by the political prognosticators over at CQ Politics. New Jersey's Fifth District is now listed as "Republican Favored" (a shift from "SAFE Republican) due to Democratic candidate Dan Shulman's impressive fundraising totals.

The campaign of Democratic rabbi and psychologist Dennis Shulman for New Jersey’s 5th District is beginning to gain steam, capturing local and national support as well as attention as he seeks to become the first blind member of Congress in generations.

In his bid to unseat three-term Republican Rep. Scott Garrett , Shulman reported more than $300,000 raised through March 31, including donations from Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer ’s political action committee, Washington state Rep. Brian Baird ’s campaign committee, and members of the psychology and religious communities. Shulman also invested $52,000 in personal funds into his campaign. He reported $246,000 remaining after expenses.

UPDATE: CQ also changed the rating in a Connecticut "swing" district (CT-02). Freshman Dem Joe Courtney's race has moved from Leans Dem to Dem Favored. The GOP's retreat from New England continues unchallenged.

Retirement Watch - First Dem Added to GOP-Dominated List

According to The Albany Times-Union, NY House Dem Michael McNulty will announce his retirement next Monday. The 60-year old congressman will be relinquishing his relatively safe Democratic seat (NY-21) after ten terms. The Albany-Schenectady area has been a reliably Democratic district in recent national elections. While the NRCC may be tempted to pour resources into this open seat, Dems will be favored to retain in 2008. No candidates from either party are in the race, but the Times-Union lists the following as potential candidates:

Among the names already circulating on the Democratic side are Schenectady Mayor Brian Stratton, son of McNulty’s predecessor; state Sen. Neil Breslin of Bethlehem; M. Tracey Brooks, an aide to Sen. Hillary Clinton who challenged former Assemblyman Pat Casale.
On the Republican side, freshman Schenectady Assemblyman George Amedore’s name has come up.

Two other House Dems (Maine's Tom Allen and Colorado's Mark Udall) are currently the only Dem open seats heading into 2008. Both are vacating their seats in hopes of a "promotion" to the US Senate.

The story is far different for the GOP, where a dozen House members (at last count) have either opted for retirement or been tempted to run for another office. Many of these retirements are occuring in the critical battleground states of the midwest, fueling Democratic hopes of expanding their House majority.

Race Tracker wiki: NY-21