It looks like two closely contested elections are going to be decided soon in favor of the Democrats. In Minnesota and Upstate New York, Republicans hopes of grasping an electoral victory on which to pin their "we're on the rebound" talking point are rapidly evaporating. But the news is worse than the simple loss of a Senate and House seat. Republican strategists "win at all costs" approach have been dangerously short-sighted, threatening to undermine their future viability in critical swing regions.
Former Senator Norm Coleman's stubborn insistence to continue fighting for a seat even conservatives now believe has been lost is alienating voters. Will his inability to "do the right thing" have repercussions for current and future Republican candidates in the North Star State? Beyond the local ramifications, his intransigence has put the squeeze on Gov. Tim Pawlenty's presidential aspirations. One of the more moderate voices in the modern Republican Party, Pawlenty is forced by Coleman's refusal to throw in the towel into a difficult political dilemma as to whether or not to sign the looming election certificate. Refusing to sign (and ignoring state law) would delight the conservative base but undermine his moderate credentials.
In New York state, the bizarre and desperate attempts to challenge multiple absentee ballots shines the spotlight on the ugly reality of bare-knuckled political fighting. While both parties always look bad in tight tussles, the tactical blunder of challenging the legitimacy of Sen. Gillibrand's ballot scars the Republicans most deeply. If a Republican resurgence is possible in the northeast, it is in the traditionally conservative regions of Upstate New York. At this point, it looks like that renaissance is a remote possibility.
Showing posts with label NY-20. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NY-20. Show all posts
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Saturday, March 28, 2009
DCCC Dancing Circles Around Tedisco
Underdog Democratic candidate Scott Murphy has surged ahead in the NY-20 special election to replace now-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, threatening GOP hopes of reversing the Democrats' electoral momentum. Solidifying their hold on a once rock-ribbed Republican district will deny the GOP the "we're on the rebound" talking point so desperately needed to revive party morale and motivate donors. It could also be the death knell for Michael Steele as RNC Chair.
The DCCC has been successful in attaching the "Just Another Albany Politician" label to the the Republican candidate Jim Tedisco:
Regardless as to the outcome of the election, political chatterers inside the Beltway will chatter about the "national implications" of this race. A Democratic victory will be proclaimed a validation of President Obama's first two months in office and a repudiation of the Party of No on their home turf. A Republican win of any size will be trumpeted by the noise machine as the exact opposite - and will fuel the media's desire for a compelling narrative about a nation unsure of it's new leadership and direction.
After viewing the DCCC ads, I would caution Democrats in particular about reading too much into a Murphy victory. The winning message (if Murphy does indeed win on Tuesday) seems to be one of a "throw the bums out!" anti-incumbent populist anger.
If this is the case, there may be reason to worry for officeholders of both parties come 2010.
The DCCC has been successful in attaching the "Just Another Albany Politician" label to the the Republican candidate Jim Tedisco:
Regardless as to the outcome of the election, political chatterers inside the Beltway will chatter about the "national implications" of this race. A Democratic victory will be proclaimed a validation of President Obama's first two months in office and a repudiation of the Party of No on their home turf. A Republican win of any size will be trumpeted by the noise machine as the exact opposite - and will fuel the media's desire for a compelling narrative about a nation unsure of it's new leadership and direction.
After viewing the DCCC ads, I would caution Democrats in particular about reading too much into a Murphy victory. The winning message (if Murphy does indeed win on Tuesday) seems to be one of a "throw the bums out!" anti-incumbent populist anger.
If this is the case, there may be reason to worry for officeholders of both parties come 2010.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Show Me The Money - Q1's Biggest RainMakers
CQ Politics' Moneyline has a list of the top ten gainers in Cash on Hand in the just reported first quarter.
Competitive Challengers (noted on the list with an asterisk): Three Democratic challengers filing their first reports (Raul Martinez, Gerry Connolly and Tom Manion) make the list as does challenger John Adler, who reports over $1 million in his race to win the open seat in NJ-03. The one Republican challenger on the list (Northup) is running to regain the seat she lost in '06, so her fundraising ability isn't a huge surprise.
Fighting Freshmen (in italics): Three Democratic incumbents on the list are running their first reelection campaign, typically when a House member is found most vulnerable. All three are in swing districts in the northeast. By winning these races, Dems can reasonably expect to solidify their dominance in the region. Notably, Murphy's expected opponent in November (Tom Manion) also appears on the list.
Clash of the Titans: Two districts (FL-21 and PA-08) have two candidates in the top ten. In both cases the incumbents maintain a large cash advantage.
1) Raul Martinez*, (D FL-21) $593,000 CoH -- $593,000+
2) Rep. Joe Sestak, (D PA-07) $2.26 million CoH -- $549,000+
3) Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, (R FL-21) $1.45 million CoH -- $547,000+
4) Rep. Patrick J. Murphy, (D PA-08) $1.66 million CoH -- $487,000+
5) Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , (R IL-10) $2.25 million CoH -- $462,000+
6) Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, (D NY-20) $2.47 million CoH -- $433,000+
7) Gerry Connolly*, (D VA-11) $422,000 CoH -- $422,000+
8) Anne M. Northup*, (R KY-03) $428,000 CoH -- $422,000+
9) Tom Manion*, (R PA-08) $417,000 CoH --$417,000+
10) John H. Adler*, (D NJ-03) $1 million CoH -- $416,000+
Competitive Challengers (noted on the list with an asterisk): Three Democratic challengers filing their first reports (Raul Martinez, Gerry Connolly and Tom Manion) make the list as does challenger John Adler, who reports over $1 million in his race to win the open seat in NJ-03. The one Republican challenger on the list (Northup) is running to regain the seat she lost in '06, so her fundraising ability isn't a huge surprise.
Fighting Freshmen (in italics): Three Democratic incumbents on the list are running their first reelection campaign, typically when a House member is found most vulnerable. All three are in swing districts in the northeast. By winning these races, Dems can reasonably expect to solidify their dominance in the region. Notably, Murphy's expected opponent in November (Tom Manion) also appears on the list.
Clash of the Titans: Two districts (FL-21 and PA-08) have two candidates in the top ten. In both cases the incumbents maintain a large cash advantage.
1) Raul Martinez*, (D FL-21) $593,000 CoH -- $593,000+
2) Rep. Joe Sestak, (D PA-07) $2.26 million CoH -- $549,000+
3) Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, (R FL-21) $1.45 million CoH -- $547,000+
4) Rep. Patrick J. Murphy, (D PA-08) $1.66 million CoH -- $487,000+
5) Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , (R IL-10) $2.25 million CoH -- $462,000+
6) Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, (D NY-20) $2.47 million CoH -- $433,000+
7) Gerry Connolly*, (D VA-11) $422,000 CoH -- $422,000+
8) Anne M. Northup*, (R KY-03) $428,000 CoH -- $422,000+
9) Tom Manion*, (R PA-08) $417,000 CoH --$417,000+
10) John H. Adler*, (D NJ-03) $1 million CoH -- $416,000+
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