Show Me The Money - Dems Positioned to Pick Up Open Seats

CQ Politics Moneyline has published another Top Ten Q1 fundraising list. They reviewed the House candidates running in open seat contests - typically the most likely seats to switch partisan control and list the top ten, as measured by Cash on Hand (CoH). The Democrats have a decided advantage at this stage of the campaign. Twenty-six Republicans are leaving the House, many choosing early retirement in an election cycle with a decidedly anti-Republican national political climate.

The race to replace Deborah Pryce in central Ohio's 15th district has both parties' nominees appearing on the list of best-funded campaigns. The eight seats are currently held by Republicans. The other (the second district in Colorado centered in Boulder) is a safe Democratic seat where three strong candidates are raising buckets of money for a primary fight that is likely to be among this cycle's most expensive race.

With five Democrats on the list, it's clear the party is positioned to pick up additional seats to pad it's new majority. Of the eight Republican-held seats listed, CQ Politics rates four as NO CLEAR FAVORITE, Democrats favored to pick up one (IL-11), and Republicans slightly favored to hold on in New Jersey and California.

The list:

1) John Adler (D, NJ-03) (James Sexton, R) [CQPolitics rating - Leans Republican] $1,000,000
2) Mary Jo Kilroy (D, OH-15) (Deborah Pryce, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $944,000
3) Doug Ose (R, CA-04) (John Doolittle, R) [Leans Republican] $845,000
4) Linda Stender (D, NJ-07) (Mike Ferguson, R), [Leans Republican] $845,000
5) Keith Fimian (R, VA-11), (Tom Davis, R), [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $742,000
6) Erik Paulsen (R, MN-03), (Jim Ramstad, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $688,000
7) Will Shafroth, (D, CO-02), (Mark Udall, D) [Safe Democrat] $682,000
8) Dan Maffei, (D, NY-25), (James Walsh, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $676,000
9) Debbie Halvorson (D, IL-11) (Jerry Weller, R) [Democrat Favored] $673,000
10) Steve Stivers (R, OH-15) (Deborah Pryce, R) [NO CLEAR FAVORITE] $600,000

Show Me The Money - Q1's Biggest RainMakers

CQ Politics' Moneyline has a list of the top ten gainers in Cash on Hand in the just reported first quarter.

Competitive Challengers (noted on the list with an asterisk): Three Democratic challengers filing their first reports (Raul Martinez, Gerry Connolly and Tom Manion) make the list as does challenger John Adler, who reports over $1 million in his race to win the open seat in NJ-03. The one Republican challenger on the list (Northup) is running to regain the seat she lost in '06, so her fundraising ability isn't a huge surprise.

Fighting Freshmen (in italics): Three Democratic incumbents on the list are running their first reelection campaign, typically when a House member is found most vulnerable. All three are in swing districts in the northeast. By winning these races, Dems can reasonably expect to solidify their dominance in the region. Notably, Murphy's expected opponent in November (Tom Manion) also appears on the list.

Clash of the Titans: Two districts (FL-21 and PA-08) have two candidates in the top ten. In both cases the incumbents maintain a large cash advantage.

1) Raul Martinez*, (D FL-21) $593,000 CoH -- $593,000+
2) Rep. Joe Sestak, (D PA-07) $2.26 million CoH -- $549,000+
3) Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, (R FL-21) $1.45 million CoH -- $547,000+
4) Rep. Patrick J. Murphy, (D PA-08) $1.66 million CoH -- $487,000+
5) Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , (R IL-10) $2.25 million CoH -- $462,000+
6) Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, (D NY-20) $2.47 million CoH -- $433,000+
7) Gerry Connolly*, (D VA-11) $422,000 CoH -- $422,000+
8) Anne M. Northup*, (R KY-03) $428,000 CoH -- $422,000+
9) Tom Manion*, (R PA-08) $417,000 CoH --$417,000+
10) John H. Adler*, (D NJ-03) $1 million CoH -- $416,000+

The Money Game - Paul Leading the GOP

Insurgent Libertarian Ron Paul appears poised to win the Q4 money race according to a story over at Politico today:

In the first two months of the quarter that began Oct. 1, Paul already has raised more than $9.75 million, putting him easily within range to best the amount rival Mitt Romney received from donors during the entire third quarter.

The influx of funds is Internet-driven. The Paul campaign has set a one day goal of $2.5 million today, which would be a follow-up to the record-breaking day Paul had earlier this month. Despite this surge, the DC punditocracy predicts this is a case of too little, too late and won't affect the dynamics of the GOP nominating contest.

“It’s highly improbable that he will get into the first tier. But he’s colorful,” says David Gergen, a former White House adviser.

I'm not sure why the ITB talking class and GOP strategists are summarilly dismissing the Paul boomlet. He is clearly striking a chord with a sector of the electorate that the remaining GOP candidates aren't. Is it his anti-war position? Or is it the fiscal argument? If I were a Republican strategist, I'd be trying to figure out how to tap into these voters for their support.

WaPo Gets the Money Headline WRONG

Cross-Posted at Daily Kos.

In reading the news reports on the presidential Q2 fundraising numbers, I came across this article over at washingtonpost.com: Campaigns Raise, Burn More Cash, More Quickly: Rapid Spending Puts Some in Jeopardy Early. The gist of the story is that both Democratic and Republican candidacies are in jeopardy because of out-of-control spending.

But, if you take a closer look, its basically the Republicans who are spending money faster than they're raising it while the leading Dems ALL saw their bank accounts grow during the quarter.

Might I suggest a more accurate headline for the WaPo editors:

Republican Presidential Campaigns Running A Deficit: Candidates Show How They'll Manage Federal Budget if Elected

The article tries to make the claim that the profligate spending is causing problems for front-running candidates in both parties.

Candidates for the White House are not only raising far more than ever before, many are also spending that money as fast as they get it, leaving some close to being forced from the race almost six months before the first votes are cast.

Campaign finance reports released in recent days show that the spending spree is a reality for both front-runners and long shots. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (R) burned through more than $20 million in the past three months, 50 percent more than he raised during that span. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) blew through the $11 million he raised during the past quarter and has barely enough money to keep going, even with his dramatically scaled-down operation.

They make the observation that both Democratic frontrunners have spent large sums (Clinton spent $12.8M while Obama spent $16M) but failed to point out that these sums represent less than 50% of the amount each campaign took in during the quarter. They describe the $11M Giuliani spent during the quarter as "modest," failing to acknowledge that Clinton & Obama raised $10-15 million more than Rudy!)

Two of the three Republican frontrunners (McCain & Romney), on the other hand, spent MORE money than they raised in the quarter. (While Romney took in $20.998M and spent $20.739M, $6.5M was a personal loan, which means he would have been "in the red" if he had relied solely on money he raised from donors). Rudy Giuliani was the only GOP top-tier candidate who operated "in the black" during the quarter. But the WaPo fails to acknowledge that the Dems have far more cash available to spend. Rudy's "frugal" campaign spent more than half of what it took in during the period. His $18M CoH represents HALF of what Obama has in the bank.

In fact, the three GOP frontrunners CoH numbers added TOGETHER don't total either Clinton's or Obama's individual totals.

The article goes on to heap praise on the wise investment of Romney's personal fortune in his early advertising raising his poll numbers:

For Romney, at least, the costly effort to get his message out seems to have paid off, said Craig Fuller, an adviser to President George H.W. Bush who is helping Romney raise money. Romney has spent nearly $5 million on television ads at a time when few others are venturing onto the airwaves, and he has risen to the top of many polls in Iowa and News Hampshire.

Romney has the added advantage of being able to dip into his personal fortune -- estimated to be in the hundreds of millions -- to supplement his fundraising, and had lent more than $9 million to his campaign by the end of June.

"The strategy of building his name recognition in the early states through advertising, I think, has paid off for him," Fuller said.

"I think he's established that he's a front-running candidate, and that was a crucial first step for him."

I think what each of the GOP candidates have established is that they don't know how to balance a checkbook. Is that a quality we desire in our next president?

Chrispy's Political Prattle for Friday the 13th

A "Baker's Dozen" quick hits list from around the West (and more!) on Jason Voorhees' favorite day:

• WA-08: Recent GOP-convert Rodney Tom announced he will be a Dem candidate in the suburban Seattle district of GOP Rep. Dave Reichert. 2006 Dem nominee is hard at work raising money and working the netroots (she'll be liveblogging at FireDogLake on Saturday morning -11AM PDT, 2PM EDT)
• OR-Sen: In the "Revised Comments" section, Sen. Gordon Smith - facing re-election in 08, told Fox News the other day that his December 2006 observation about the Iraq War as "criminal" was inaccurate. He now describes the war as "Insane" - will any of his GOP colleagues agree?
• Show Me the Money: How important are the Q2 fundraising numbers? Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg has an interesting article "Historical Review of Second Quarter Fundraising." Does money at this stage of the cycle predict who wins? Hint: Howard Dean.
• Iraq - the Endgame: Craig Crawford @ CQPolitics.com points out Thursday's House vote (223-201) represents a molasses-like pace movement away from the president's Iraq surge. Needing another 67 votes to override any presidential veto means the Dems won't get enough support until summer 2008 if the current pace continues.
• MT-Sen: From the "Majority Matters" file: Montana Sen. Max Baucus (and Finance Committee Chairman) reports his fundraising total for Q2 2007 has doubled over the same period back in 2001. His CoH amount ($4.3 million) is a considerable sum, particularly in a state the size of Montana. His broad based support across the state helps explain why the GOP has only put Loony Mike Lange as an opponent to the five-term senator.
• NM-01 & ID-01: The trend of Iraq War veterans jumping into politics continues - Democrat Byron Paez has tossed his hat in the ring in New Mexico. This comes a week after Republican Matt Salisbury announced his primary challenge to freshman GOP Rep. Bill Sali.
• AZ-03: The "gut-check" terror alarm: Arizona GOP Rep. John Shadegg apparently shares the same gastro-intestinal pyschic abilities as Homeland Secretary Chertoff. Since we know the administration doesn't need factual intelligence to go to war, does it surprise anyone that the person responsible for monitoring terror threats relies on his tummy?
• GOP House Outlook: NRCC Chairman Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) is already 'spinning' his party's 2008 House election prospects and you know they're worried when he says, "Nobody gets two 2006s in a row," Cole said. He pointed out that the 202 seats Republicans currently occupy are ten seats better than President Reagan held "on his best day."
• Rudy's Rough Ride: The Giuliani campaign's foundation seems to be crumbling with each passing news cycle. The people that know him best - the firefighters and the voters of New York City don't seem to like him. How long will it be until Rudy's front-running campaign follows McCain into the second tier of GOP contenders.
• NV-03: Swing State reports the DCCC may have finally suceeded in recruiting a top tier challenger to Vegas area GOP Rep. Jon Porter in Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas.
• CA-44: What is it with California's GOP delegation? A grand jury ruled GOP Rep. Ken Calvert and two business partners bought and sold real estate in violation of state regulations. The Hill reports the decision will not affect Calvert's re-election plans, nor cause him to lose his seat on the powerful House Appropriations Committee.
• WA-GOV: Christine Gregoire, the Democrat narrowly elected over Dino Rossi in 2004, is credited by Forbes Magazine with making Washington State one of the top five business-friendly states in US, undercutting the GOP argument that Democratic regulations hinder economic activity. It remains unclear whether Rossi will mount a challenge in 2008 (the state Dems argue he's declared and then undeclared already). The news this week that an investigation has been launched into whether his non-profit Forward Washington organization violates state law means a rematch would likely be a 'no-holds barred' contest between the two parties.
• From deep in the heart of BLUE TEXAS, one last picture, in memory of Lady Bird.
  
  

The House Horse Race - the Q2 Fundraising Filings (UPDATE Thursday 7:30PM EDT)

Cross-posted at An Enduring Majority.

Previously, we reported that Democrat Darcy Burner was on a record-setting fundraising pace for a Washington State congressional challenger this early in the race.

With Q2 filings due this Sunday, the fundraising numbers for challengers and incumbents are beginning to trickle in. For the most part, the Senate numbers will become public at a slower pace - and the first to report from the Western races is Colorado contest for the open seat.

Colorado Senate - Rep. Mark Udall has reportedly raised $1.1 million in his effort to win the seat for the Democrats, and has more than $2.5m in the bank. GOP opponent Bob Schaffer has yet to release his Q2 numbers.

In the House, an up-to-the-minute listing is available via CQPolitics' Moneyline. A review of the house candidates from around the West who have raised over $50,000 in the quarter reveal where the races are already heating up - first number is Q2 take, second is the Cash on Hand (CoH).

Thursday, July 12, 8:30 AM EDT:

The Democratic Challengers showing early dedication:

CA-26: Russ Warner - working to unseat gazillion-term Rep. David Dreier raised $100K - with $150K CoH (cash on hand). For more on the Warner candidacy see here. Warner, along with Darcy - have not yet officially filed with the FEC - so we'll keep an eye out for exact numbers and update with actual totals.

CA-26: Hoyt Hilsman, another Dem looking to take on Dreier also raised an impressive amount ($106K, with $105K CoH), REVISION: a commenter noted that $100K of the Q2 income reported by Hilsman was a personal loan.

NM-02: Bill McCamley - a 29-year old County Commissioner looking to unseat Rep. Steve Pearce has pulled in an impressive $140K with $133 CoH.

GOP Incumbents Raising Cold, Hard Cash
(listed in order of Q2 money raised)
AZ-06: Rep. Jeff Flake - $217K in Q2, $581K CoH
WA-05: Rep. Cathy McMorris - $147K, $165K CoH
OR-02: Rep. Greg Walden - $137K, $503K CoH. A cursory review of Eastern Oregon conservative Walden's website reveals another powerful indication of the GOP's tarnished brand - can't find his party affiliation anywhere on the site, but Walden does publicize his membership in the Small Brewers Caucus. He wants you to know he's a micro-brewer, but not a Republican?
ID-02: Rep. Mike Simpson - $87K, $75K CoH - Simpson is rumored to be thinking about running for GOP Sen. Larry Craig's Senate seat.
CA-24: Rep. Elton Gallegly - $77K, $832K CoH

Democratic Incumbents With the Tip Jar Out
(listed in order of Q2 money raised)
HI-01:Rep. Neil Abercrombie $47oK, 1.o87M CoH
UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson $205K, $588K CoH
CA-27: Rep. Sherman $163K, $1.517M CoH
AZ-07: Rep. Raul Grivalja $90K, $85K CoH

Thus far, only 233 registered candidates have filed with the FEC (and that includes a slew of inactive campaigns of retired congress critters). I'll check back in with updates over the next few days to see who's got the serious money MoJo and who might be thinking about retirements.

UPDATE (Thursday, 7:30 PM EDT)


Dem Incumbents:
(listed in order of Q2 money raised)
NV-01: Rep. Shelley Berkley, $406K, $1.212M CoH
CO-07: Rep. Ed Perlmutter, $206K, $338K CoH
OR-03: Rep. Earl Blumenauer, $150K, $461 CoH


GOP Incumbents:
(listed in order of Q2 money raised)
NM-02: Rep. Steve Pearce, $246K, $383K CoH
CA-40: Rep. Ed Royce, $184K, $2.014M CoH
CA-50: Rep. Brian Bilbray, $154K, $224K CoH (Correction: previously erroneously listed as a challenger)
CA-25: Rep. Buck McKeon, $88K, $205K CoH
CA-26: Rep. David Dreier, $56K, $1.997M CoH

No additional Dem challengers filing with more than $50K raised Q2 GOP

Of note, no GOP $50K+ challengers have thus far filed in any Western House race.