NM-Sen: Waiting for the Dominos to Fall

Two New Mexico institutions - Sen. Pete Domenici and Gov. Bill Richardson - dominate state politics. The two heavyweights' decisions, successes and stumbles continue to send ripples through the state's political structure. Will the Senator recover from his self-inflicted wounds? Or will he decide another campaign just isn't in him? Will the governor suceed in his quest for the White House? Or will he turn his attention to the Senate seat? These questions are likely to linger for many more months, influencing other NM politicians 2008 strategies.

Sen. Pete Domenici was long viewed as a political force of nature who could retain his Senate seat for as long as he desired. That was before his role in USAGate become known. The first half of this year, "Pajama Pete" watched his sky-high approval ratings plummet.

No longer was the focus on Domenici's possible retirement - now analysts were openly wondering whether the 74-year-old Senator could succesfully defend the seat in 2008. The race went from a "long shot" Dem opportunity to a "possible" pick-up in a matter of months. The state's politicos waited to see Domenici's plans.

The political equilibrium in the state was further disrupted by the fact Domenici's presumed Senate successor, Rep. Heather Wilson, is also embroiled in the firing of US Attorney David Iglesias. Many interpreted his increased fundraising efforts during the first quarter as a signal he was gearing up for a reelection campaign.

This conclusion was reinforced by two high-profile policy flip-flops. On immigration, Domenici responded to calls from the GOP base opposing "amnesty" and voted against cloture only days after supporting the reform legislation. The second issue garnered national headlines. His denunciation of the Bush Iraq policy was viewed by many as a confirmation he was running. Both decisions seem to be politically motivated. It remains to be seen whether his "re-election two-step" the right foot slide to placate the GOP base combined with the left foot shuffle to the moderate middle will be successful - or could cause Pajama Pete to fall flat on his face.

But, even with many national and state observers viewing Domenici as vulnerable, the Democrats are still searching to entice a top-tier challenger into the race. Thus far, two Dems (environmental activist Jim Hannan and real estate developer Don Wiviott) have thrown their hats in the ring. Two better known potential candidates, former AG Patricia Madrid and Rep. Tom Udall, remain on the sidelines. Some local observers speculate the Democrats' hesitancy is because they anticipate Gov. Bill Richardson may jump into the race if his quest for the presidency comes up short.

Will more damaging information emerge in the USAGate firings wounding Domenici further? Will Richardson's presidential campaign flounder before 2008? It may me many months before the answers to these questions are known. In the meantime, New Mexico politics exists in a state of suspended animation, waiting to see which way the dominos fall.

NM-Sen racetracker wiki.

Cross-posted at An Enduring Majority.

GOP Senate Retirement Watch - the Immigration Vote

Political observers are reading the tea leaves to determine which GOP Senators are contemplating retirement. In addition to Colorado Sen Allard, as many as seven more (nearly a third of the 22 seats they are defending in 2008) are rumored to be considering leaving Congress. They are: Cochran (MS), Craig (ID), Domenici (NM), Hagel (NE), Inhofe (OK), Stevens (AK) and Warner (VA)

Last week's immigration vote may have provided some clue as to who is calling it quits and who is gearing up for a campaign.

Of course, many of us will be watching the Q2 fundraising numbers as they become available in the coming weeks (the Senate still files paper reports, so they won't be immediately available as with House and Presidential amounts). If John Warner hasn't revved up the fundraising efforts over Q1 (when he deposited a grand total of $500), a retirement will be viewed as a near-certainty.

A look at how these Senators voted on immigration reform reveals two are likely to relinquish their seats, two others are gearing up for another run, while the plans of the remaining three remain too difficult to determine.

Leaving the Senate? Of the seven, only two (Hagel and Craig) voted for cloture. Both have already attracted primary challengers from the rightwing and this "YES" vote only serves to weaken them within the GOP base. I'd say this indicates both Senators are not planning reelection campaigns.

Stubborn Old Men: Domenici and Stevens, each tainted by scandal and ongoing investigations, voted against cloture. These votes represent a switch from their "YES" votes on the previous cloture motion. A reversal indicates they are being responsive to the demands of the conservative activists who are critical to their re-election efforts. Voting for cloture would have further weakened them back home, where both have watched their standing with the voters plummet in recent months.

Show Me the Money: Virginia's Warner is the third GOP Senator who switched his vote. Until we see his Q2 fundraising numbers, I'd hold off on making any prediction as to his 2008 plans.

The immigration votes don't provide insight into the plans of the remaining two, as both Inhofe and Cochran voted with the majority of GOP senators each time.

NM-01: New USAGate Testimony Likely to Hurt Wilson

New Mexico's First Congressional District is a quintessential swing district. Heather Wilson, the GOP incumbent has never received more than 55% of the vote in her re-election campaigns. When revelations about her role in the USAGate attorney firings became public early in 2007, her hold on the seat through the 2008 election became more precarious. This is one of the top three Western targets for Democrats as they work to expand their House majority.

#2) NM-01: Wilson [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: ONE declared challenger (for more info about Martin Heinrich's campaign is here) with at least TWO more rumored to be considering making a run at unseating Wilson
• Incumbent Running? Probable (Wilson does not have a 2008 campaign website)


• NM-01 RACE DETAILS:

"Blue District"makes Wilson a perennial target: This is one of two Western districts (with WA-08) carried by Kerry in 04 currently held by a Republican. Dems hold a wide advantage in registration (46-35%) and is one of the truly swing districts in the West. Martin Heinrich's efforts to build a strong, well-financed campaign to oust Wilson can be found here. Former NM Attorney General (and 2006 NM-01 nominee) Patricia Madrid has not made a decision about the race.

USAGate exposes Wilson to ethics questions: Wilson's role in the firing of New Mexico US Attorney David Iglesias has resulted in a larger "bull's eye" on her back going into 2008 as witnessed by the DCCC's HeatherWilsonWatch.com website. Her political mentor, Sen. Pete Domenici, a long-time New Mexico institution, has watched his approval ratings plummet in the state since the phone calls became public. Wilson was once considered the 'heir apparent' to replace Domenici in the Senate upon his retirement. Now, both find themselves as politically wounded "damaged goods" in the state and many observers view a Wilson run for Senate as a non-starter. She will have an even more difficult time holding on to this seat.

Congressional Testimony Worsens Wilson's position: The political fortunes of both Wilson and Sen. Pete Domenici deteriorated when US Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty testified this past week before the House Judiciary Committee. McNulty expanded on his previous testimony, acknowledging that an Oct. 4, 2006, a phone call by Sen. Domenici (R-N.M.) complaining about the performance of then-New Mexico U.S. Attorney David Iglesias was a factor in his later decision to not raise objections over Iglesias’s name remaining on the firing list. He did not disclose the influence of Domenici’s call during his February testimony. This new testimony can't help Wilson's re-election chances in New Mexico, where the story has generated tons of media coverage.

PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

NM-Sen - Dem to Declare Candidacy - Is He Saving Bill A Seat?

New Mexico PR consultant Joe Monahan breaks the news this morning about a Democrat jumping into the race to oust Pajama Pete Domenici from the Senate in 2008. Santa Fe real estate developer Don Wiviott is dedicating $400K to his election effort. According to Monahan, Wiviott's raising money online through Act Blue, but I couldn't locate a page for the nascent campaign.

Perhaps the most interesting question posed by Monahan is whether or not Wiviott, a friend of Gov. Bill Richardson, is simply acting as a placeholder for the Governor if he opts to make a Senate run if his presidential campaign sputters. Apparently, many NM Democrats attribute the lack of a high-name ID candidate in the race (thus far only environmentalist Jim Hannan is the only declared candidate - with AG Patricia Madrid and NM-03 Rep. Tom Udall still on the sidelines) to date is due to the idea that Bill may jump into the race, and sail back into Congress.

Monahan reports Wiviott announced his plans to run during this week's Take Back America confence and is in DC putting together an experienced campaign team. Check out Joe Monahan's New Mexico for all the details.

Will update with more info about Wiviott and the race to unseat Pajama Pete as soon as it's available.

NM-Sen wiki.