Sunday Muse, May 17

This Week in Politics:

While planet Earth burns, the Republicans continue playing their fiddles.

The Republican noise machine remains potent. Remember that DHS report on Right Wing extremism? In the immortal words of Gilda's Emily Litella, "Never mind."

No one escapes his wrath. Rush Limbaugh lashes out at McCain's elderly mother.

Does Obama's decision to revive military trials for Gitmo detainees threaten his left flank?

Predictable, yet diabolical. Hannity is falsely comparing Obama's plans to appoint his own US Attorneys to the Rove/Bush regime's politically motivated 2006 firings of nine US Attorneys.
Insiders blogging on DC's coming summer blockbuster.

Lifestyles:

Older Americans feeling the pinch from this recession less than younger generations.

From the "What Else Did You Expect?" File:

More trigger-happy mercenaries working for The Company Formerly Known as Blackwater find themselves in hot water in Afghanistan.

NM-Sen: Waiting for the Dominos to Fall

Two New Mexico institutions - Sen. Pete Domenici and Gov. Bill Richardson - dominate state politics. The two heavyweights' decisions, successes and stumbles continue to send ripples through the state's political structure. Will the Senator recover from his self-inflicted wounds? Or will he decide another campaign just isn't in him? Will the governor suceed in his quest for the White House? Or will he turn his attention to the Senate seat? These questions are likely to linger for many more months, influencing other NM politicians 2008 strategies.

Sen. Pete Domenici was long viewed as a political force of nature who could retain his Senate seat for as long as he desired. That was before his role in USAGate become known. The first half of this year, "Pajama Pete" watched his sky-high approval ratings plummet.

No longer was the focus on Domenici's possible retirement - now analysts were openly wondering whether the 74-year-old Senator could succesfully defend the seat in 2008. The race went from a "long shot" Dem opportunity to a "possible" pick-up in a matter of months. The state's politicos waited to see Domenici's plans.

The political equilibrium in the state was further disrupted by the fact Domenici's presumed Senate successor, Rep. Heather Wilson, is also embroiled in the firing of US Attorney David Iglesias. Many interpreted his increased fundraising efforts during the first quarter as a signal he was gearing up for a reelection campaign.

This conclusion was reinforced by two high-profile policy flip-flops. On immigration, Domenici responded to calls from the GOP base opposing "amnesty" and voted against cloture only days after supporting the reform legislation. The second issue garnered national headlines. His denunciation of the Bush Iraq policy was viewed by many as a confirmation he was running. Both decisions seem to be politically motivated. It remains to be seen whether his "re-election two-step" the right foot slide to placate the GOP base combined with the left foot shuffle to the moderate middle will be successful - or could cause Pajama Pete to fall flat on his face.

But, even with many national and state observers viewing Domenici as vulnerable, the Democrats are still searching to entice a top-tier challenger into the race. Thus far, two Dems (environmental activist Jim Hannan and real estate developer Don Wiviott) have thrown their hats in the ring. Two better known potential candidates, former AG Patricia Madrid and Rep. Tom Udall, remain on the sidelines. Some local observers speculate the Democrats' hesitancy is because they anticipate Gov. Bill Richardson may jump into the race if his quest for the presidency comes up short.

Will more damaging information emerge in the USAGate firings wounding Domenici further? Will Richardson's presidential campaign flounder before 2008? It may me many months before the answers to these questions are known. In the meantime, New Mexico politics exists in a state of suspended animation, waiting to see which way the dominos fall.

NM-Sen racetracker wiki.

Cross-posted at An Enduring Majority.

NM-01: New USAGate Testimony Likely to Hurt Wilson

New Mexico's First Congressional District is a quintessential swing district. Heather Wilson, the GOP incumbent has never received more than 55% of the vote in her re-election campaigns. When revelations about her role in the USAGate attorney firings became public early in 2007, her hold on the seat through the 2008 election became more precarious. This is one of the top three Western targets for Democrats as they work to expand their House majority.

#2) NM-01: Wilson [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: ONE declared challenger (for more info about Martin Heinrich's campaign is here) with at least TWO more rumored to be considering making a run at unseating Wilson
• Incumbent Running? Probable (Wilson does not have a 2008 campaign website)


• NM-01 RACE DETAILS:

"Blue District"makes Wilson a perennial target: This is one of two Western districts (with WA-08) carried by Kerry in 04 currently held by a Republican. Dems hold a wide advantage in registration (46-35%) and is one of the truly swing districts in the West. Martin Heinrich's efforts to build a strong, well-financed campaign to oust Wilson can be found here. Former NM Attorney General (and 2006 NM-01 nominee) Patricia Madrid has not made a decision about the race.

USAGate exposes Wilson to ethics questions: Wilson's role in the firing of New Mexico US Attorney David Iglesias has resulted in a larger "bull's eye" on her back going into 2008 as witnessed by the DCCC's HeatherWilsonWatch.com website. Her political mentor, Sen. Pete Domenici, a long-time New Mexico institution, has watched his approval ratings plummet in the state since the phone calls became public. Wilson was once considered the 'heir apparent' to replace Domenici in the Senate upon his retirement. Now, both find themselves as politically wounded "damaged goods" in the state and many observers view a Wilson run for Senate as a non-starter. She will have an even more difficult time holding on to this seat.

Congressional Testimony Worsens Wilson's position: The political fortunes of both Wilson and Sen. Pete Domenici deteriorated when US Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty testified this past week before the House Judiciary Committee. McNulty expanded on his previous testimony, acknowledging that an Oct. 4, 2006, a phone call by Sen. Domenici (R-N.M.) complaining about the performance of then-New Mexico U.S. Attorney David Iglesias was a factor in his later decision to not raise objections over Iglesias’s name remaining on the firing list. He did not disclose the influence of Domenici’s call during his February testimony. This new testimony can't help Wilson's re-election chances in New Mexico, where the story has generated tons of media coverage.

PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH