OR-Sen: Rumors of A Challenger for Smith Making the Rounds

Oregon State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown announced Sunday she would be stepping down from her leadership post after nine years. The Salem News reports:

When Brown was first elected Leader in 1998, there were only ten Democrats in the Oregon Senate. Under her leadership, that number grew to eighteen, a solid majority that has enabled the Senate to make monumental strides for Oregon'

“It’s been an amazing run, and whatever the future holds, I am committed to continuing the fight to strengthen our great state,” said Senator Brown.

Citing progress on a number of key issues – including increased funding for early education, K-12 schools and higher education; making health care more affordable and accessible; restoring 100 state troopers to protect Oregon’s highways; protecting consumers; investing in renewable energy; expanding the Oregon Bottle Bill; enacting landmark civil rights protections; and passing comprehensive ethics reform – Brown said she leaves her role as Majority Leader with a great sense of accomplishment.

The announcement has sparked speculation about what Brown has in mind for her future, with local blogs suggesting this is her first step in a campaign to become Oregon's next Democratic Senator. It looks like she'd be a solid choice and stand a good chance of knocking off Gordon Smith, one of the most vulnerable Republican Senators in 2008, Today, it's only rumors, but it looks like the race in Oregon might finally be on.

OR-Sen wiki

CA-37: Special Election Tuesday

Voters in California's Thirty-Seventh District (Long Beach, Compton, Carson & South LA) go to the polls on Tuesday in the special election primary to elect a replacement to the late Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald. As with most CA districts, this is a "safe" seat and no one doubts the Democrats will hold onto this urban seat. The drama is whether a Latino or African-American candidate will emerge victorious. The diverse district is 25% African-American and 20% Latino and the area has long been represented by an African-American in Congress.

According to the LA Times, the crowded field of eighteen candidates (17 will be on the ballot with one write-in qualified) is wrapping up a fast paced six week campaign with two frontrunners, state Sen. Jenny Oropeza and Assemblywoman Laura Richardson. The race is too close to call 48 hours before the polls open. Under California law, if no candidate receives 50% +1 (highly unlikely in such a crowded field) the top Democrat and the top Republican will face voters in the special general on August 21. With Dems holding a huge registration advantage (57% Dem -20% GOP), the top Democrat will be the presumptive new member of Congress.

The Times writes about the shifting power of the LA-area's ethnic communities in a Sunday Op-ed piece:

The contest in the 37th Congressional District, which includes most of Long Beach, Carson and Compton, could be an exception to an unwritten political rule in Los Angeles: Growing Latino political clout doesn't come at the expense of black political power.In a city like L.A., one would expect the city's black and Latino political communities to have clashed more frequently than they have.

Liberalism may be their common ideology, but the economic interests of the black and Latino working classes have at times come into conflict as the Latino presence in the city grew. For example, Latinos have largely taken the janitorial and hotel jobs that blacks held 25 years ago. In the poorest quadrants of the city, violence between black and Latino gangs rages.

And yet L.A.'s black and Latino political elites have tended to avoid conflict more often than not. In the 2005 mayoral election, for example, both groups largely upported the candidacy of Antonio Villaraigosa. Multiracial coalitions have been, if not the norm, at least frequent in city politics — surprisingly frequent. Generally, as once heavily black parts of the city have become plurality or majority Latino, the elites have worked together to limit the possibility of Latino candidates winning elections in districts historically represented by blacks.

Polls are open all day. Will update as soon as results are available.

CO-04: Angie & Eidsness Visit the Blogosphere

Last week I reported on Colorado Fourth District Democrat Angie Paccione liveblogging over at Firedoglake. She drew rave reviews from Down With Tyranny and other progressives for her forthright stands on issues that may not be all that popular in the conservative high plains of eastern Colorado.

It's come to my attention that Eric Eidsness, the 2006 Reform Party candidate who garnered more than 11% of the 2006 vote, also recently blogged. He chose to post over at the local home of Colorado progressives, SquareState. Let's just say, Eidsness was less successful in his attempt to woo netroots support. Kossack Colorado Luis posted on the dialogue and admonished campaign strategists: "His [Eidsness'] post, "Winning CD-4" should be screensaved and shown to every campaign this cycle as the paradigm example of how not to interact with progressive blogs." A sampling of Eidsness' post about the 2006 race:

Supporters believed in my moderate, civil and thoughtful message. No one disputed my ability to communicate effectively, my qualifications or my passion, or my fiscal conservatism and socially progressive ideas. That was evident to those who witnessed the Windsor debate.

Even my service to the Reagan Administration where I enforced three national laws was as a envrionmental professional in the engineering field, not a political hack circling Washington D. C. looking for a position of power and influence. That service seems to be a black eye for me among some die-hard Democratic activists.
I know that there are a vocal few who are mad at my entrance into the race last year as a Reform Party Candidate. Some "blame" me for "spoiling" the race for Angie. That is speculation and really not that relevant to next years race in the CD-4.

However, I will say this, it is interesting that I earned the endorsements of four conservative daily newspapers east of I-25 (Lamar, Sterling, Fort Morgan and Greeley, as well as the Fort Collins Coloradoan. It is for this reason, along with my water, envrionmental(sic), business and national policy experience in the "Reagan Administration", that if I were to earn the Democratic nomination, I would defeat Marilyn Musgrave.(emphasis added)

You have to wonder if he was aware SquareState was a progressive blog? Talk about not understanding your audience. Even before I read Eidsness' nonsense, I felt Paccione deserved our support. We don't need to elect another DINO to Congress. A Reagan environmentalist? Uhm, does anyone remember James Watt?


Let's show Paccione we support her efforts to unseat Mad Marilyn by donating.


CO-04 wiki.

Hillary Doesn't Prefer Blondes! More Meaningless News From the Sunday Morning Pundits

Sunday mornings at Chrispy's home have a predictable routine. This week was like most others...until I heard something about blondes...and brunettes...and I soon found myself wondering, "Is this what passes for a real discussion about issues and politics in 21st century America?"

Now, I'm no Hillary fan, but I found myself wondering, is this fair?

For nearly two decades I lived in DC, and I religiously watched the Sunday morning talkshow lineup (Inside the Beltway they conveniently schedule the shows so you can watch one after the other - its the politico's version of NFL football). When I moved to the West Coast, I realized my weekly political junkie fix would be limited (three years later, I still haven't succeeded in locating CBS's Face the Nation). As a result, Meet the Press and the Chris Mathews Show provide my Sunday morning political insider 'spin.'

This Sunday's Meet the Press had a segment titled "Slick Hillary" in which Timmy and the gang talked about Ron Fornier's recent article describing Hillary's political skills as less "slick" but not as "slick" as 'uber-political' husband Bill.

Stop the presses, folks.

Let's be fair here - and acknowledge there are 20 candidates in the field with political instincts that are no match for Bill Clinton. Hillary isn't going to measure up to him, but neither are any of the others.

As far as being "too slick," PBS's Gwen Ifill came to Hillary's rescue by observing,

"Guess what? Almost every other candidate in this race has some sort of 'slickness' which has been attributed to them - from Mitt Romney to Rudy Giuliani to Barack Obama. And guess what? It turns out that that doesn't matter as much to people as the issues which concern them. How are they going to get their kids in school? How are they going to get their healthcare paid for? So, even though it infuriates us - the media... I don't know that there is any evidence that voters are sitting here thinking, 'Well, I don't know what she thinks, I'll have to vote for somebody else.'"

Amen, Gwen.

Oh, but I made the mistake of leaving the TV on too long and wound up catching Chris Matthews and his gang of merry misfits. Misogynist TweetyBird took particular delight in devouring Hillary this week - but it was the WaPo's Kathleen Parker that really shocked me when she commented on a recent front page picture in the WaPo accompanying an article about the role of women in Clinton's presidential campaign by saying:

"It makes a case with a certain demographic, and I noticed the picture on the front of The Washington Post the other day showed her with all these women and her crew, and did you notice, there was only one blonde out of about 15 women, so it sort of -- I thought that was very telling."

The photo in question can be found here. And, yes, there's only one blonde. Not sure what that says about Hillary's qualifications to be president, but Ms. Parker found it noteworthy.

Most troubling is that this answer came during Tweety's line of questioning about Hillary's qualifications to be Commander-in-Chief, which he prefaced by this comment:

OK, let's put the gender thing in here. I love gender politics, guys. We have two women here all the time to make sure we're balanced on this show. But Elisabeth, I know you're a feminist, in the best possible sense of that word. You [Parker] probably are in a more traditional word.

I found myself wondering, "WTF? What does Matthews mean by "you're a feminist in the best possible sense of that word?" And, if Parker's more "traditional" feminism means making vapid observations about hair color, I can only shake my head in utter dismay. Who cares about the hair color of the women on Hillary's team?" I can't believe this passes for political discourse in modern America.

Twelve hours later, as I tuck myself into bed, the late-night local news reports there are 23 million single women in America today. They are likely to be the 2008 version of Soccer Moms and NASCAR dads, the anchor tells me.

"Oh, please," I find myself begging, "don't let them care how many blondes the next president has in their cabinet. "

Can't we do better than this? Doesn't America deserve more?

Weekly Western Roundup - Dems Eager to Oust GOP Incumbents

The Democratic Party's historic 2006 midterm election win in which the Dems achieved control of both the House and Senate was built primarily on victories in the Northeast and Midwest. Only 9 of the 30 House seats and 3 of the 6 Senate seats won were west of the Mississippi.

The Democratic wave that swept out of the Atlantic across New England and the Midwest ran out of steam as it lapped up against the foothills of the Front Range, with the Dems only scoring one Senate (Tester in Montana) and four House (AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CO-07) pickups on the Pacific side of the Continental Divide. (The four seat total requires me to move the Divide a couple of hundred miles east, as CO-07 technically sits on the eastern side of the divide.) Can Democrats score more wins by looking West in 2008? If they aim to expand their House majority, they will need to heed Horace Greeley and "Go West." For the purpose of this Weekly Western Roundup, I'll be looking at developments in House races west of (and including) Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico.

Will The West Be Fertile Ground for 2008 Democratic House Wins?

With only one New England GOP representative remaining in the House and a half dozen truly vulnerable GOP targets in the Midwest, the Democrats needs to identify and target vulnerable Western lawmakers if we wish to significantly expand our majorities in Congress. Timothy Egan, in a 6/21/08 NY Times opinion piece titled, "Republicans Losing the West,"(access requires paid subscription) discusses the GOP's loosening grasp on a region long viewed as solidly Red. Egan observes the GOP's harsh rhetoric on immigration has changed the political balance in the region and quotes AZ Dem Chair David Waid, “Arizona is in play like never before. And the Republicans are literally handing it to us.”

Can Democrats take advantage of this opportunity? Where are they best poised to pick-up GOP-held seats in 2008? Fifteen months before election day, the Democrats are fielding strong and diverse candidates in the districts currently held by the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. In 2008, Democrats should be in a position to at least match the four Western seats picked up in 2006. This first weekly roundup reviews the seven races with the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. In future updates, I'll look at races where Democrats are fielding strong challenges to better-entrenched incumbents.

Are Primaries Good for the Party?

In five to the seven races examined here, Democrats are likely to see multiple candidates vying for the nomination. This forces the question - does a primary battle strengthen or weaken a candidate entering a general election? The argument can be made that a bloody and expensive primary battle results in the eventual nominee emerging as wounded and damaged for a general election campaign.

However, there are many who will argue that a primary can increase a candidate's name recognition and provides the opportunity for a candidate to fine-tune their policy positions and anticipate the potential campaign attacks they may face in the general election. Of course, I'm assuming the campaigns refrain from personal attacks and keep the primary campaign's focus on the issues confronting the district and the nation. An issues-driven primary provides the party's progressives, moderates and conservatives to identify the best candidate for the particular district. As such, the candidate that emerges is the one most likely to win and claim a mandate from the people they represent.

I personally hope to see more progressive candidates win in the general. I believe a strong intraparty debate between the various groups within the party during the primary is the way to develop a progressive consensus from which national Democrats can lead.

The Consensus Top Targets - Winning the West

The experts are pretty much in agreement on the 2008 battleground districts. The Rothenberg Political Report House ratings identifies 24 GOP-held seats as potentially in play. Seven of these are in the West. Electoral-vote.com's 2008 Hot House Races roster is similar. Both include districts where Democratic incumbents will likely face strong challenges and where Dems will be playing defense in '08 (AZ-05, CA-11). Future editions of this Weekly Update will include developments in those races as well.

I don't view this list as comprehensive. There are certainly other Western districts that are possible pickups. In coming weeks, as we get Q2 fundraising results and see where the DCCC's recruiting efforts have been targeted, this list will likely grow. In my opinion, there should be 12-20 Western seats the Dems make a strong run at during this cycle. As the field expands, I'll update the target list.

The Seven Western Targets (ranked in order of most-to-least vulnerable):

#1) ARIZONA 01 - Renzi
#2) NEW MEXICO 01 - Wilson
#3) WASHINGTON 08 - Reichert
#4) CALIFORNIA 04 - Doolittle
#5) NEVADA 03 - Porter
#6) COLORADO 04 - Musgrave
#7) WYOMING AL - Cubin

#1) AZ-01: Renzi [wiki] (PVI R+2)* (RR = Lean GOP)**

• Democratic Line-Up: THREE declared challengers with SEVEN more rumored to be considering entering the race
• POSSIBLE resignation, due to ethics/legal probes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Yes
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Possible
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

For more see "AZ-01: Dems Lining Up to Take on Renzi"

#2) NM-01: Wilson [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: ONE declared challenger (for more info about Martin Heinrich's campaign is here) with at least TWO more rumored to be considering making a run at unseating Wilson
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable
• Incumbent Running? Probable (Wilson does not have a 2008 campaign website)
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: HIGH

For more details on NM-01 see: "NM-01: New USAGate Testimony Likely to Hurt Wilson"

#3) WA-08: Reichert [wiki] (PVI D+2) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Darcy Burner is running again, and may face a primary challenge from 1-2 other Democrats
• Incumbent Running? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details see "WA-08: Burner Likely to Get Primaried in 2008"

#4) CA-04: Doolittle [wiki] (PVI R+11) (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Charlie Brown is full-speed ahead on fundraising and building a strong campaign team to steal this seat from the GOP
• POSSIBLE retirement due to ongoing FBI probe into Doolittle's close ties to Jack Abramoff
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details see "CA-04: GOPers Want to Dump Doolittle, Too"

#5) NV-03: Porter [wiki] (PVI D+1) (RR = Lean GOP)*

• Democratic Line-Up: TWO declared challengers, FOUR considering entering, 2006 Dem Gov Nominee Dina Titus has declined to run
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE

For more details on NV-03 race see "NV-o3: What's Happening in Vegas?"

#6) CO-04: Musgrave [wiki] (PVI R+9) (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Angie Paccione is running again and is likely to face a primary challenge from 2-3 potential candidates.
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Yes
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Probable


• PICKUP PROBABILITY: MINIMAL

For more details on the CO-04 race see "CO-04: Paccione Seeks Netroots Support - She Deserves It" and "CO-04: Angie & Eidsness Visit the Blogosphere"

#7) WY-AL: Cubin [wiki] (RR = GOP Favored)*

• Democratic Line-Up:
• INCUMBENT RUNNING? Possible
• DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Unlikely
• PICKUP PROBABILITY: LOW

For more details on the WY-AL race see "WY-AL: Does the New Sen. Barrasso Affect the Dynamics of the House Race?" (to be posted 6/25)

Are there additional House pick-up opportunities west of the Continental Divide? Certainly. In addition to Doolittle, there are three more CA GOP incumbents (as well as Alaska Rep Don Young) with ethical clouds hanging over their heads. But, picking off these, or other firmly entrenched incumbents across the West will require well-financed candidates with a strong message. The time to lay the foundation for victory in November 2008 is now.

*What's "PVI"? It's the Cook Partisan Voting Index, developed by Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. A full explanation can be found here.

**A note about the Rothenberg Ratings - Rothenberg rates on the following spectrum: Safe Dem, Favored Dem, Lean Dem, Toss-Up/Tilt Dem, Pure Toss-Up, Toss-Up/Tilt GOP, Lean GOP, Favored GOP, Safe GOP. The current ratings list 24 GOP held seats are currently not rated as "Safe GOP." Each race discussed above includes an "RR" rating based on these categories.

NV-03: What's Happening in Vegas

When national Democrats pushed to move Nevada up to the front of the presidential nominating process, they did so for two reasons:

Nevada demographics: The large Latino population and strong union presence were more representative of the national Democratic party than Iowa and New Hampshire and would provide a more accurate gauge of the candidates' appeal to the broader electorate

Turn Nevada Blue: The move would increase chances of Democratic pickups in down-ballot contests. Nevada's Third Congressional District - a truly swing district - is where we will see if this strategy pays off in 2008.

#5) NV-03: Porter [wiki] (PVI D+1) (RR = Lean GOP)*
Democratic Line-Up: TWO declared challengers, FOUR considering entering, 2006 Dem Gov Nominee Dina Titus has declined to run
PRIMARY CONTEST: Likely
INCUMBENT RUNNING: Yes

NV-03 RACE DETAILS:

The Las Vegas Review Journal reports significant comings and goings in the Democratic field in this Vegas-area district. 2006 Gubernatorial nominee and state Sen. Dina Titus has decided to not make a run for the nomination (she's heading up Hillary's outreach efforts to western women). The race has attracted accountant Andrew Martin and Barry Martin, who finished second in the 2006 Dem primary despite spending time in prison in the early 1990s. State Sen. Maggie Carlton, a waitress at Treasure Island, is considering a run as is NV-01 Rep. Shelley Berkley's husband, Dr. Larry Lehrner. It looks like it the primary field will be colorful and varied. This is a winnable seat, as the LVRJ reports Rep. Porter is viewed favorably by only 37% of district voters, according to an April poll.

CA-04: GOPers Want to Dump Doolittle, Too

If the Democrats hope to expand their House majority by winning the west, the four "ethically challenged" GOP incumbents (Doolittle, Lewis, Miller & Calvert) represent top targets in the Golden State. Doolittle's close ties to Abramoff came close to bringing him down in 2006. The Dems have a strong candidate in '06 nominee Charlie Brown readying for a rematch. The local GOP has begun it's own campaign to "Dump Doolittle." The Dems' best hope of seizing control of this seat is Doolittle getting the GOP nod, as an open seat contest would be much more difficult to win in this GOP-leaning district.

#4) CA-04: Doolittle [wiki] (PVI R+11) (RR = GOP Favored)*
Democratic Line-Up: '06 nominee Charlie Brown is full-speed ahead on fundraising and building a strong campaign team to steal this seat from the GOP
POSSIBLE retirement due to ongoing FBI probe into Doolittle's close ties to Jack Abramoff
INCUMBENT RUNNING? Probable

CA-04 RACE DETAILS:

ABRAMOFF CONNECTIONS PUT DOOLITTLE AT RISK: Rep. John Doolittle and his wife, Julie, are targets of an FBI investigation probing the couple's close relationship with imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff and also appears on CREW's list of 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress. In 2006, Doolittle nearly lost to Charlie Brown in this Republican district. The ongoing ethics and criminal investigations have adversely affected his fundraising in 2007. We will see just how much in a few weeks when Q2 fundraising numbers are made public.

LOCAL GOP DEMORALIZED AND FRACTURED: Local media this week ran stories about the splintering of the GOP in Nevada County, which represented 15% of the 2006 district vote total and the one county in the district where Brown outpolled Doolittle (23,224 to 17,005). Former GOP committee member John Vandenberg, the leader of the breakaway group described response to his fundraising efforts as "lackluster."

DOOLITTLE TALKING TOUGH ON WAR???: Another indication as to how endangered Doolittle is, the The Union of Grass Valley ran an article Thursday with the headline "Doolittle: Congress to get tough on Iraq War" in which the congressman is reported as moving to distance himself from the president and the unpopular Iraq War. Doolittle seems to be looking toward a general election contest against Brown, which is good news for Dems targeting this seat as a pickup.

PICKUP PROBABILITY: MODERATE